01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Bolton Wanderers or draw (1X)65%
- Under 3.5 goals75%
EFL ChampionshipToughsheet Community Stadium, Bolton16°9,8 mm9 km/h
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Bolton WanderersPossession control0–1
Lincoln CityLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Bolton Wanderers (37%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.34 (+1 %)
Bolton Wanderers – Lincoln City · EFL Championship
1 · Bolton Wanderers 37%X 30%33% Lincoln City · 2
37%
30%
33%
Analysis: Bolton Wanderers – Lincoln City
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
Bolton's 37% win probability stands out against Lincoln's 33%, highlighting a marginal edge for the hosts. Yet, the numbers tell a more nuanced story. Lincoln's xG per match at 1.6 dwarfs Bolton's 0.55, suggesting the visitors may pose a greater threat than their current points tally indicates. Despite Bolton's possession-based style potentially controlling the flow, Lincoln's direct approach could exploit any defensive lapses.
With a likely goal total of 2.52 and the weather forecast of rain, the betting markets lean towards a cautious match. The most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, with Bolton's 1-0 win at 10% and Lincoln's 0-1 at 9% not far behind. The expected goals for both teams are nearly even, with Bolton narrowly ahead at 1.29 against Lincoln's 1.23. These figures, combined with the historical data, suggest that a low-scoring draw is a strong possibility.
The over 2.5 goals market at 46% might offer some value, given the attacking tendencies and weather conditions. A 1-1 draw remains the model's most likely outcome, reflecting the expected balance between the sides.
Bolton WanderersForm WD
League ranking xG #24xGA #16xT #23xP/match #24Points #9
Key players
- Thierry Mikael GaleLWxG 0.18 · xT 0.06
- Samuel George DalbyFxG 0.09 · xT 0.05
- Josh SheehanCDMxG 0.07 · xT 0.08
Lincoln CityForm LL
League ranking xG #10xGA #23xT #15xP/match #7Points #23
Key players
- Ben HouseFxG 0.27 · xT 0.03
- Freddie DraperFxG 0.08 · xT -0.01
- Reeco HackettRWxG 0.78 · xT 0.13
Final score
0 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Bolton Wanderers 37% · Draw 30% · Lincoln City 33%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - BoltonBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 10,10fair 11,62-13 %
MissMatchresultat - LincolnBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,88fair 12,87-23 %
MissMatch prediction: Bolton Wanderers – Lincoln City
Predicted score matrix
Lincoln City →
Bolton Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.4%
0–19.5%
0–26.1%
0–32.5%
0–4+1.0%
1
1–010.0%
1–113.1%
1–27.8%
1–33.2%
1–4+1.3%
2
2–06.7%
2–18.3%
2–25.1%
2–32.1%
2–4+0.8%
3
3–02.9%
3–13.6%
3–22.2%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–01.2%
4+–11.5%
4+–20.9%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.0-08%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,29–1,23
Both teams to score
52%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,508%
119%
226%
321%
414%
5+11%
Under 2,554%
@1.78
Over 2,546%
@2.10
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Bolton Wanderers or draw (1X)65%
- Under 2.5 goals54%
- Rúben da Rocha Rodrigues to score24%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score52%
- Over 2.5 goals46%
- Rúben da Rocha Rodrigues to score24%
- Joshua Luke Sheehan to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw30% probability@3.34PinnacleEV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Bolton Wanderers | X | 2 · Lincoln City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.85 |
| Betsson | 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.85 |
| Nordicbet | 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.85 |
| Pinnacle | 2.50 | EV+ 1% 3.34 | 2.97 |
Odds updated 29 Aug, 11:37
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 23 August — the odds have shortened from 1.90 to 1.78 (−6%).
1+1 %
42 %37 %
2.47 → 2.50
X-1 %
31 %26 %
3.39 → 3.34
2+5 %
35 %30 %
2.83 → 2.97
Over 2,5+10 %
50 %45 %
1.92 → 2.10
Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Bolton Wanderers
Lincoln City
Bolton Wanderers (2–1)
Lincoln City (2–5)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Bolton Wanderers
Lincoln City
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Bolton Wanderers
Lincoln City
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Bolton Wanderers | Lincoln City |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 4 | 0 |
| xPoints | 1.6 | 3.2 |
| xG per match | 0.55 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.7 | 2.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.06 | 0.29 |
| Playing style | Bolton Wanderers | Lincoln City |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| Field tilt | 0.43 | 0.19 |
| xT per match | 0.46 | 0.84 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 21 | 30 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.29 | 0.3 |
| Entries into the box per match | 5 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 17 | 18 |
| Pass completion % | 0.73 | 0.53 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.5 |
| Passes per match | 343 | 131 |
| Passes against per match | 340 | 415 |
| Switches of play per match | 35.1 | 23.9 |
| Long balls per match | 40 | 34 |
| Set pieces | Bolton Wanderers | Lincoln City |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0.2 |
| Corners per match | 3.6 | 6.5 |
| Corners against per match | 5.7 | 4 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.07 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.14 | 0.23 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.82 | 0.25 |
| Other | Bolton Wanderers | Lincoln City |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.72 | 0.68 |
| The goalkeepers | Jack Elliott Bonham (Bolton Wanderers) | George Wickens (Lincoln City) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 12 | 9 |
| Save % | 92% | 64% |
| xG prevented | 89% | 40% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Wrexham – Birmingham City28 August 2026
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- Derby County – Swansea City29 August 2026 13:30 CEST
- Middlesbrough – West Bromwich Albion29 August 2026 13:30 CEST
- Wolverhampton – Stoke City29 August 2026 13:30 CEST
- Southampton – Millwall29 August 2026 16:00 CEST
- Norwich City – Burnley29 August 2026 16:00 CEST
- Bristol City – Portsmouth29 August 2026 16:00 CEST
- Charlton Athletic – Preston North End29 August 2026 16:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Bolton Wanderers vs Lincoln City according to our model?
The model gives Bolton Wanderers a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bolton Wanderers 37%, draw 30%, Lincoln City 33%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.