Charlton Athletic vs Preston North End: Prediction & Odds (29 Aug 2026)

EFL Championship29 August 2026 16:00 CESTThe Valley, London19°3,5 mm23 km/h

Läs på svenska

Charlton AthleticCounter-attacks & crosses

1–0

Preston North EndPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Charlton Athletic (45%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.74 (+6 %)

1 · Charlton Athletic 45%X 28%27% Preston North End · 2

45%

28%

27%

Analysis: Charlton Athletic – Preston North End

Anna Karlsson · 27 August 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Charlton Athletic's knack for scoring in nine consecutive league games meets Preston North End's possession-based approach and their current three-match losing streak. The balance of this clash may hinge on these opposing dynamics. Charlton's strength lies in their ability to exploit counterattacks and aerial balls, which could unsettle Preston's attempts to dominate possession. However, despite Charlton's attacking consistency, their xG of 1.27 to Preston's 0.99 suggests that this might be a tightly contested match.

The numbers tell a story of parity with a slight lean towards the hosts. A 45% win probability for Charlton, aided by Preston's dip in form, suggests that the hosts have a viable edge. Yet, the most probable scorelines — 1-1 at 14% and 1-0 at 13% — underline the potential for a low-scoring affair. The expected goals model aligns with this narrative, hinting at a defensive struggle influenced by the damp conditions. Charlton's momentum will be tested against a Preston side desperate to halt their losing streak, making the midfield battle crucial.

Charlton has not beaten Preston in their limited head-to-head encounters since 2023, losing both matches. However, with only two games in this dataset, these past results hold less weight compared to the current form and expected goals. Preston's defensive vulnerabilities could be exploited if Charlton maintains their scoring rhythm, but Preston's superior xGA indicates they might tighten up at the back.

For bettors, the standout angle is the value on under 2.5 goals. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer odds of 1.7, which the model assesses at 61% probability, providing a 3% edge. This suggests a cagey encounter, with Charlton perhaps edging it 1-0 but not without a fight.

Charlton Athletic

Form LWLWW

League ranking xG #19xGA #19xT #19xP/match #11Points #2

Key players

Tyreece Anthony Tupac Shakur CampbellLWxG 0.08 · xT -0.01
Karlan Laughton Ahearne-GrantFxG 0.07 · xT 0.36
Conor James CoventryCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.08

Preston North End

Form LWLLL

League ranking xG #15xGA #12xT #18xP/match #18Points #21

Key players

Alfie Sean DevineRWxG 0.05 · xT 0.09
Liam LindsayCBxG 0.28 · xT 0.05
Andrew HughesLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.09

Final score

1 – 0

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Charlton Athletic 45% · Draw 28% · Preston North End 27%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - PrestonBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 13,54fair 21,07-36 %

Miss

Matchresultat - CharltonBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 8,02fair 13,04-38 %

Miss

Match prediction: Charlton Athletic – Preston North End

Predicted score matrix

Preston North End →

Charlton Athletic →

0–010.9%

0–110.0%

0–25.1%

0–31.7%

0–4+0.5%

1–012.9%

1–113.5%

1–26.5%

1–32.1%

1–4+0.7%

2–08.4%

2–18.3%

2–24.1%

2–31.4%

2–4+0.4%

3–03.5%

3–13.5%

3–21.7%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.2%

4+–01.5%

4+–11.5%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.1-013%
3.0-011%
4.0-110%
5.2-08%

Expected goals

1,27–0,99

Both teams to score

46%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

011%

123%

227%

320%

411%

5+8%

Under 2,561%

@1.74EV+6%

Over 2,539%

@2.18

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Charlton Athletic or draw (1X)71%
Under 3.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Charlton Athletic or draw (1X)71%
Under 2.5 goals61%
Luke David Berry to score18%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score46%
Over 2.5 goals39%
Lewis Norman Dobbin to score23%
Alistair Edward McCann to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.561% probability@1.74BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
Under 2.561% probability@1.74BetssonEV+6%reference odds
Under 2.561% probability@1.74NordicbetEV+6%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Charlton Athletic	X	2 · Preston North End
Betsafe	2.10	3.15	3.65
Betsson	2.10	3.15	3.65
Nordicbet	2.10	3.15	3.65
Pinnacle	2.13	3.37	EV+ 0% 3.68

Odds updated 29 Aug, 11:37

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Charlton Athletic win since 23 August — the odds have shortened from 2.33 to 2.13 (−9%).

1-9 %

49 %39 %

2.33 → 2.13

X+6 %

34 %24 %

3.19 → 3.37

2+14 %

32 %22 %

3.22 → 3.68

Over 2,50 %

49 %39 %

2.19 → 2.18

Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Charlton Athletic 0Draw 0Preston North End 2

Goals: 1–4 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Championship data since 2023.

Key facts

Charlton Athletic have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
Preston North End have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Charlton Athletic

Preston North End

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Charlton Athletic (4–2)

Preston North End (2–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Charlton Athletic

Preston North End

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Charlton Athletic

Preston North End

The teams in numbers

Performance	Charlton Athletic	Preston North End
Points	6	0
xPoints	2.7	2.2
xG per match	1	1.1
xGA per match	1.8	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.13	0.08
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.28	0.26

Playing style	Charlton Athletic	Preston North End
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.3
Field tilt	0.29	0.41
xT per match	0.67	0.71
xTA per match	1.7	0.86
Won balls, offensive half	22	25
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.23	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.19	0.25
Entries into the box per match	11	11
Entries into the box against	18	10
Pass completion %	0.66	0.7
Pass completion % under pressure	0.61	0.65
Passes per match	210	285
Passes against per match	499	384
Switches of play per match	12	14.2
Long balls per match	19	22

Set pieces	Charlton Athletic	Preston North End
xG from free kicks	0.17	0.06
Corners per match	4.5	3.6
Corners against per match	5.5	4.6
xG per corner	0.06	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.44	0.57
First touch, defensive corners %	0.55	0.78

Other	Charlton Athletic	Preston North End
Throw-in control	0.89	0.65

The goalkeepers	Arthur Chukwuezugo Okonkwo (Charlton Athletic)	Daniel Lønne Iversen (Preston North End)
Saves	8	5
Save %	89%	50%
xG prevented	70%	20%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Charlton Athletic

Fixtures, form & tips

Preston North End

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Charlton Athletic vs Preston North End according to our model?

The model gives Charlton Athletic a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Charlton Athletic 45%, draw 28%, Preston North End 27%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 39% and under at 61%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.