01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Middlesbrough to win46%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
EFL ChampionshipToughsheet Community Stadium, Bolton6°23 km/h
Läs på svenska
Bolton WanderersPossession controlvs
MiddlesbroughPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Middlesbrough (46%)Best value by the model: 1 · Bolton Wanderers @ 4.90 (+44 %)
Bolton Wanderers vs Middlesbrough · EFL Championship
1 · Bolton Wanderers 29%X 25%46% Middlesbrough · 2
29%
25%
46%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Bolton Wanderers vs Middlesbrough (EFL Championship, Friday, 23 October 2026): Bolton Wanderers win 29%, draw 25%, Middlesbrough win 46%. Expected goals (xG): Bolton Wanderers 1.31, Middlesbrough 1.76. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%. Double chance: Bolton Wanderers or draw 54%, Middlesbrough or draw 71%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
Bet on this match
NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links
Analysis: Bolton Wanderers – Middlesbrough
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
Middlesbrough's recent dominance looms large over their upcoming clash with Bolton Wanderers. The visitors arrive on the back of an impressive nine-match unbeaten streak, having found the net in 11 consecutive league outings. These patterns reflect a side that's not only been consistent but also remarkably effective in front of goal. Small sample or not, Bolton will be all too aware of Middlesbrough's relentless momentum.
Dig a little deeper, and the numbers paint a clear picture. The expected goals (xG) metric tips heavily in favor of the visitors: 2.0 for Middlesbrough against Bolton's 1.3 per match. Defensively, the disparity widens further with Middlesbrough conceding an average of only 1.1 xGA per match compared to Bolton's leaky 1.7. Possession control is Bolton's forte, yet against a high-pressing side like Middlesbrough, they might find themselves under siege.
The model's probabilities reinforce the trend: a 46% chance of a Middlesbrough victory with a 29% chance for Bolton. Scoreline projections like 1-2 or 0-1 underscore the visitors' edge. However, with a 59% likelihood of over 2.5 goals, the narrative isn’t solely defensive. Bolton's ability to control possession could still see them disrupt the pattern, especially if they strike first.
For those scanning for value, there's an intriguing proposition. Betsafe and Nordicbet both rate a Bolton win at odds of 4.9, while LeoVegas offers 4.6. Given the model's 29% estimation of a home win, these odds present a 44% and 35% edge respectively. While the most prudent prediction might lean towards a narrow Middlesbrough win, the potential value on Bolton suggests a calculated gamble is in play.
Bolton WanderersForm WWLWD
League ranking xG #13xGA #21xT #10xP/match #20Points #16
Key players
- Josh SheehanCDMxG 0.10 · xT 0.14
- Chris ForinoCBxG 0.12 · xT 0.03
- Ethan ErhahonCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.03
MiddlesbroughForm DDWWD
League ranking xG #2xGA #2xT #2xP/match #1Points #2
Key players
- Luke AylingCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.28
- Aidan MorrisCDMxG 0.15 · xT 0.10
- Callum BrittainRWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.17
Match prediction: Bolton Wanderers – Middlesbrough
Predicted score matrix
Middlesbrough →
Bolton Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.0%
0–17.8%
0–27.2%
0–34.2%
0–4+2.8%
1
1–05.8%
1–111.0%
1–29.4%
1–35.5%
1–4+3.6%
2
2–04.0%
2–17.0%
2–26.2%
2–33.6%
2–4+2.4%
3
3–01.7%
3–13.1%
3–22.7%
3–31.6%
3–4+1.0%
4+
4+–00.8%
4+–11.3%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.0-18%
- 4.0-27%
- 5.2-17%
Expected goals
1,31–1,76
Both teams to score
61%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
114%
222%
322%
417%
5+20%
Under 2,541%
@2.60EV+6%
Over 2,559%
@1.50
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Middlesbrough to win46%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- William Lankshear to score27%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score61%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- William Lankshear to score27%
- Ethan Jay Osadebawen Erhahon to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Bolton Wanderers29% probability@4.90BetsafeEV+44%reference odds
- 1 · Bolton Wanderers29% probability@4.90NordicbetEV+44%reference odds
- 1 · Bolton Wanderers29% probability@4.60LeoVegasEV+35%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Bolton Wanderers | X | 2 · Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM UK | EV+ 23% 4.20 | 4.00 | 1.70 |
| Betsafe | EV+ 44% 4.90 | EV+ 7% 4.30 | 1.60 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 35% 4.60 | EV+ 7% 4.30 | 1.60 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 44% 4.90 | EV+ 7% 4.30 | 1.60 |
Odds updated 19 Oct, 17:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Middlesbrough win since 16 October — the odds have shortened from 1.68 to 1.60 (−5%).
1+10 %
23 %18 %
4.20 → 4.60
X+8 %
25 %20 %
4.00 → 4.30
2-5 %
59 %54 %
1.68 → 1.60
LeoVegas · 13 recorded price levels · 16/10/2026 → 19/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Middlesbrough are unbeaten in their last 9 league matches.
- Middlesbrough have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Bolton Wanderers
Middlesbrough
Bolton Wanderers (15–18)
Middlesbrough (22–16)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Bolton Wanderers
Middlesbrough
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Bolton Wanderers
Middlesbrough
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Bolton Wanderers | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 14 | 22 |
| xPoints | 12.9 | 18.8 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 2 |
| xGA per match | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| Playing style | Bolton Wanderers | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.48 | 0.65 |
| xT per match | 0.98 | 1.3 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 0.75 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 15 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.74 | 0.81 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.77 |
| Passes per match | 341 | 469 |
| Passes against per match | 344 | 293 |
| Switches of play per match | 27.3 | 26.4 |
| Long balls per match | 35 | 28 |
| Set pieces | Bolton Wanderers | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.23 |
| Corners per match | 5.4 | 5.9 |
| Corners against per match | 5.2 | 5 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.47 | 0.7 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.68 | 0.69 |
| Other | Bolton Wanderers | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| The goalkeepers | Gavin Okeroghene Bazunu (Bolton Wanderers) | Radek Vítek (Middlesbrough) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 21 | 23 |
| Save % | 70% | 62% |
| xG prevented | 67% | 45% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Queens Park Rangers – Swansea City24 October 2026
- Charlton Athletic – Norwich City24 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Portsmouth – Millwall24 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Sheffield United – Derby County24 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Stoke City – Bristol City24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Blackburn Rovers – Wrexham24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Lincoln City – Burnley24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Wolverhampton – Watford24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Preston North End – West Bromwich Albion24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Bolton Wanderers vs Middlesbrough according to our model?
The model gives Middlesbrough a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bolton Wanderers 29%, draw 25%, Middlesbrough 46%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Bolton Wanderers vs Middlesbrough?
The model expects 1.31 goals (xG) for Bolton Wanderers and 1.76 for Middlesbrough, 3.07 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Bolton Wanderers or draw (1X) 54%, Middlesbrough or draw (X2) 71% and no draw (12) 75%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen
Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.
Se ComeOns villkor
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.
Se Hajpers villkor
Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.