01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Bristol City or draw (X2)67%
- Under 3.5 goals77%
EFL Championshipbet365 Stadium, Stoke-on-Trent7°8,2 mm25 km/h
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Stoke CityLow block & directvs
Bristol CityLow block & directThe model's lean: 2 · Bristol City (37%)
Stoke City vs Bristol City · EFL Championship
1 · Stoke City 31%X 32%37% Bristol City · 2
31%
32%
37%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Stoke City vs Bristol City (EFL Championship, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Stoke City win 31%, draw 32%, Bristol City win 37%. Expected goals (xG): Stoke City 1.17, Bristol City 1.29. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 50%. Double chance: Stoke City or draw 63%, Bristol City or draw 69%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
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Analysis: Stoke City – Bristol City
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
TEXT (corrected):
A small sample of head-to-head encounters since 2023 shows Bristol City having a slight edge over Stoke City, with two wins to one. But given the limited number of games, this alone doesn't define the upcoming clash. Stoke, despite having more points in the standings, show a weaker underlying performance. Their expected points lag behind Bristol's, exposing vulnerability.
Stoke City's attack has been consistent, with goals in each of their last ten league games. Yet, their defensive frailties are glaring, conceding an average of 1.6 expected goals against per match. In contrast, Bristol's defense looks sturdier, allowing fewer chances at 1.2 xGA per match. This defensive solidity could be pivotal, especially given the hosts' struggles at the back.
The matchup's playing style indicates both teams might struggle to break down each other's defenses, despite being direct in approach. The model suggests Bristol is more likely to edge it, reflected in their marginally higher expected goals and the model's 37% win probability for the visitors. With a forecast of 1.17 xG for Stoke and 1.29 xG for Bristol, a tight contest is on the cards.
For bettors, the sharper angle lies with Bristol City. Backing Bristol to win at odds of 3.10 with Bet365 presents value considering the model's lean towards the visitors. A 1-0 victory for Bristol (i.e., a 0-1 scoreline) seems plausible, falling in line with the data, while the prospect of over 2.5 goals looks less appealing at only a 44% chance.
Stoke CityForm DWWWL
League ranking xG #23xGA #20xT #16xP/match #20Points #8
Key players
- Sam GallagherFxG 0.09 · xT 0.08
- Róbert BoženíkRWxG 0.28 · xT 0.03
- Maksym TaloverovCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.04
Bristol CityForm LLWDL
League ranking xG #13xGA #7xT #18xP/match #9Points #10
Key players
- Rob DickieCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.03
- Lisav Naif EissatCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.08
- Lorent TolajFxG 0.44 · xT 0.02
Match prediction: Stoke City – Bristol City
Predicted score matrix
Bristol City →
Stoke City →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–09.0%
0–110.7%
0–27.1%
0–33.1%
0–4+1.3%
1
1–09.7%
1–113.3%
1–28.3%
1–33.6%
1–4+1.5%
2
2–05.8%
2–17.5%
2–24.8%
2–32.1%
2–4+0.9%
3
3–02.3%
3–12.9%
3–21.9%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–00.9%
4+–11.1%
4+–20.7%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-111%
- 3.1-010%
- 4.0-09%
- 5.1-28%
Expected goals
1,17–1,29
Both teams to score
50%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,509%
120%
226%
321%
413%
5+10%
Under 2,556%
@1.90EV+6%
Over 2,544%
@1.90
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Bristol City or draw (X2)67%
- Under 2.5 goals56%
- Gibson Osahumen Yah to score14%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score50%
- Over 2.5 goals44%
- George David Eric Hirst to score31%
- Lisav Naif Eissat to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Bristol City37% probability@3.05BetsafeEV+12%reference odds
- 2 · Bristol City37% probability@3.05NordicbetEV+12%reference odds
- X · Draw32% probability@3.45BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Stoke City | X | 2 · Bristol City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.25 | EV+ 10% 3.45 | EV+ 12% 3.05 |
| LeoVegas | 2.25 | EV+ 7% 3.35 | EV+ 8% 2.95 |
| Nordicbet | 2.25 | EV+ 10% 3.45 | EV+ 12% 3.05 |
Odds updated 19 Oct, 19:36
Odds movement
1-4 %
43 %38 %
2.35 → 2.25
X+6 %
31 %26 %
3.15 → 3.35
20 %
33 %28 %
2.95 → 2.95
Over 2,5-1 %
51 %46 %
1.90 → 1.88
LeoVegas · 10 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 19/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesStoke City 1Draw 1Bristol City 2
Goals: 7–7 (⌀ 3,5)
Head-to-head based on Championship data since 2023.
Key facts
- Stoke City have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Stoke City
Bristol City
Stoke City (17–16)
Bristol City (12–14)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Stoke City
Bristol City
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Stoke City
Bristol City
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Stoke City | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 16 | 14 |
| xPoints | 11.4 | 14.9 |
| xG per match | 0.94 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.14 | 0.26 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.17 | 0.2 |
| Playing style | Stoke City | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.34 | 0.45 |
| xT per match | 0.88 | 0.86 |
| xTA per match | 0.99 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 21 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.73 | 0.7 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.68 |
| Passes per match | 285 | 282 |
| Passes against per match | 386 | 346 |
| Switches of play per match | 19.6 | 17.5 |
| Long balls per match | 27 | 24 |
| Set pieces | Stoke City | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| Corners per match | 4.4 | 5.7 |
| Corners against per match | 5 | 5.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.39 | 0.3 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.72 |
| Other | Stoke City | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.73 | 0.73 |
| The goalkeepers | Viktor Johansson (Stoke City) | Samuel Lloyd Tickle (Bristol City) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 37 | 15 |
| Save % | 70% | 54% |
| xG prevented | 40% | 27% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Bolton Wanderers – Middlesbrough23 October 2026 21:00 CEST
- Queens Park Rangers – Swansea City24 October 2026
- Charlton Athletic – Norwich City24 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Portsmouth – Millwall24 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Sheffield United – Derby County24 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Blackburn Rovers – Wrexham24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Lincoln City – Burnley24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Wolverhampton – Watford24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Preston North End – West Bromwich Albion24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Stoke City vs Bristol City according to our model?
The model gives Bristol City a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Stoke City 31%, draw 32%, Bristol City 37%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Stoke City vs Bristol City?
The model expects 1.17 goals (xG) for Stoke City and 1.29 for Bristol City, 2.45 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Stoke City or draw (1X) 63%, Bristol City or draw (X2) 69% and no draw (12) 68%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.