01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Sheffield United or draw (1X)69%
- Under 3.5 goals76%
EFL ChampionshipBramall Lane, Sheffield8°3,8 mm25 km/h
Läs på svenska
Sheffield UnitedLow block & directvs
Derby CountyPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Sheffield United (38%)Best value by the model: 2 · Derby County @ 3.85 (+18 %)
Sheffield United vs Derby County · EFL Championship
1 · Sheffield United 38%X 31%31% Derby County · 2
38%
31%
31%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Sheffield United vs Derby County (EFL Championship, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Sheffield United win 38%, draw 31%, Derby County win 31%. Expected goals (xG): Sheffield United 1.36, Derby County 1.15. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%. Double chance: Sheffield United or draw 69%, Derby County or draw 62%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
Bet on this match
NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links
Analysis: Sheffield United – Derby County
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
Sheffield United's 12-point tally, compared to Derby County's 6, paints a clear picture. The hosts have shown more consistency, reflected in both points and expected points, where Sheffield also edges Derby with 12.5 to 10.2. This advantage is mirrored in the head-to-head record since 2023, albeit over a small sample, with the Blades winning three of their last four encounters.
The model sees Sheffield United as favorites at 38%, closely matched by Derby County and the draw, both at 31%. Their playing styles suggest a clash between the hosts’ direct approach and Derby’s possession control. Expected goals provides a slight nod to Sheffield with 1.36 over Derby's 1.15, indicating the home side's potential to edge the contest.
Given the balance of probabilities and expected goals, a 1-1 draw emerges as the most likely scoreline at 13%, closely followed by a 1-0 win for Sheffield at 11%. With the over 2.5 goals line sitting at 46%, the under seems a cautious play, and both teams finding the net is a near coin-flip at 51%. Overall, Sheffield United's superior form and historical edge make them the model's lean in this contest.
Sheffield UnitedForm WLLWL
League ranking xG #17xGA #22xT #24xP/match #18Points #15
Key players
- Sydie PeckCAMxG 0.12 · xT 0.16
- Tom CannonFxG 0.44 · xT 0.00
- Sam MccallumLWBxG 0.08 · xT 0.11
Derby CountyForm LLDDL
League ranking xG #22xGA #23xT #17xP/match #24Points #23
Key players
- Sondre LangasCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.02
- Joe WardRWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.20
- Alex MowattCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.04
Match prediction: Sheffield United – Derby County
Predicted score matrix
Derby County →
Sheffield United →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.5%
0–19.0%
0–25.4%
0–32.1%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–010.7%
1–113.1%
1–27.3%
1–32.8%
1–4+1.0%
2
2–07.5%
2–18.6%
2–25.0%
2–31.9%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–03.4%
3–13.9%
3–22.2%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.5%
4+–11.8%
4+–21.0%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.2-19%
- 5.0-09%
Expected goals
1,36–1,15
Both teams to score
51%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,509%
120%
226%
321%
413%
5+11%
Under 2,554%
@1.98EV+7%
Over 2,546%
@1.77
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Sheffield United or draw (1X)69%
- Under 2.5 goals54%
- Patrick James Bamford to score24%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score51%
- Over 2.5 goals46%
- Patrick James Bamford to score24%
- Lewis Travis to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Derby County31% probability@3.85LeoVegasEV+18%reference odds
- X · Draw31% probability@3.55LeoVegasEV+10%reference odds
- Under 2.554% probability@1.98LeoVegasEV+7%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Sheffield United | X | 2 · Derby County |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas | 1.85 | EV+ 10% 3.55 | EV+ 18% 3.85 |
Odds updated 19 Oct, 13:36
Odds movement
1-5 %
52 %47 %
1.95 → 1.85
X+4 %
29 %24 %
3.40 → 3.55
2+5 %
27 %22 %
3.65 → 3.85
LeoVegas · 11 recorded price levels · 16/10/2026 → 19/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesSheffield United 3Draw 0Derby County 1
Goals: 5–4 (⌀ 2,2)
Head-to-head based on Championship data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Sheffield United
Derby County
Sheffield United (14–14)
Derby County (9–19)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Sheffield United
Derby County
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Sheffield United
Derby County
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Sheffield United | Derby County |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 12 | 6 |
| xPoints | 12.5 | 10.2 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 1 |
| xGA per match | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.16 | 0.2 |
| Playing style | Sheffield United | Derby County |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.37 | 0.54 |
| xT per match | 0.62 | 0.87 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 0.98 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 29 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.66 | 0.73 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.63 | 0.68 |
| Passes per match | 245 | 321 |
| Passes against per match | 393 | 337 |
| Switches of play per match | 17.7 | 21.6 |
| Long balls per match | 29 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Sheffield United | Derby County |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 3.1 | 5.3 |
| Corners against per match | 7.3 | 5.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.63 | 0.54 |
| Other | Sheffield United | Derby County |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.69 | 0.7 |
| The goalkeepers | Michael Cooper (Sheffield United) | Jacob Widell Zetterstrom (Derby County) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 34 | 28 |
| Save % | 71% | 68% |
| xG prevented | 54% | 43% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Bolton Wanderers – Middlesbrough23 October 2026 21:00 CEST
- Queens Park Rangers – Swansea City24 October 2026
- Charlton Athletic – Norwich City24 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Portsmouth – Millwall24 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Stoke City – Bristol City24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Blackburn Rovers – Wrexham24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Lincoln City – Burnley24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Wolverhampton – Watford24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Preston North End – West Bromwich Albion24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Sheffield United vs Derby County according to our model?
The model gives Sheffield United a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sheffield United 38%, draw 31%, Derby County 31%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Sheffield United vs Derby County?
The model expects 1.36 goals (xG) for Sheffield United and 1.15 for Derby County, 2.51 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Sheffield United or draw (1X) 69%, Derby County or draw (X2) 62% and no draw (12) 69%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen
Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.
Se ComeOns villkor
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.
Se Hajpers villkor
Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.