Charlton Athletic vs Norwich City Prediction: Away win 40% (24 Oct 2026)

EFL Championship24 October 2026 13:30 CESTThe Valley, London9°9,0 mm27 km/h

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Charlton AthleticLow block & direct

Norwich CityPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Norwich City (40%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.45 (+6 %)

1 · Charlton Athletic 30%X 31%40% Norwich City · 2

30%

31%

40%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Charlton Athletic vs Norwich City (EFL Championship, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Charlton Athletic win 30%, draw 31%, Norwich City win 40%. Expected goals (xG): Charlton Athletic 1.07, Norwich City 1.43. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%. Double chance: Charlton Athletic or draw 60%, Norwich City or draw 70%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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Analysis: Charlton Athletic – Norwich City

Erik Lindberg · 16 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT: Norwich City's four-match losing streak casts a shadow over their visit to Charlton Athletic, yet the model gives them a slight edge with a 40% win probability. Despite their recent struggles, Norwich's possession-focused approach contrasts with Charlton's more direct and defensive style. This clash of tactics sets the stage for a tight encounter where control and discipline may outweigh flair.

The expected goals tell a story of Norwich's attacking potential, with a 1.43 xG compared to Charlton's 1.07, suggesting an edge in creating chances. However, both sides concede an average of 1.5 xGA per match, pointing to vulnerabilities in both defences. The most likely scorelines, 1-1 and 0-1, reinforce the idea of a low-scoring game, and the under 2.5 goals probability at 54% supports this notion.

Charlton's better points tally (14 vs Norwich's 9) might suggest a slight advantage, yet Norwich's edge in the xPoints department (14.3 vs 13.1) and the previous head-to-head results, albeit from a small sample, lean slightly towards the visitors.

Charlton Athletic

Form DDLDD

League ranking xG #19xGA #15xT #21xP/match #16Points #11

Key players

Tyreece Anthony Tupac Shakur CampbellLWxG 0.16 · xT 0.17
Karlan Laughton Ahearne-GrantFxG 0.23 · xT 0.13
Conor James CoventryCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.08

Norwich City

Form WLLLL

League ranking xG #10xGA #18xT #10xP/match #10Points #20

Key players

Kenny McleanCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.13
Pelle MattssonCMxG 0.22 · xT 0.12
Jose CordobaCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.09

Match prediction: Charlton Athletic – Norwich City

Predicted score matrix

Norwich City →

Charlton Athletic →

0–08.5%

0–111.3%

0–28.4%

0–34.0%

0–4+2.0%

1–08.4%

1–112.9%

1–29.0%

1–34.3%

1–4+2.1%

2–04.7%

2–16.7%

2–24.8%

2–32.3%

2–4+1.1%

3–01.7%

3–12.4%

3–21.7%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.4%

4+–00.6%

4+–10.8%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-111%
3.1-29%
4.0-09%
5.1-08%

Expected goals

1,07–1,43

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+11%

Under 2,554%

@1.92EV+4%

Over 2,546%

@1.88

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Norwich City or draw (X2)72%
Under 3.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Norwich City or draw (X2)72%
Under 2.5 goals54%
Andre Chance Brooks to score18%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Andre Chance Brooks to score18%
Oliver William Skipp to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw31% probability@3.45BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
X · Draw31% probability@3.45NordicbetEV+6%reference odds
X · Draw31% probability@3.40LeoVegasEV+5%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Charlton Athletic	X	2 · Norwich City
Betsafe	3.35	EV+ 6% 3.45	2.12
LeoVegas	3.15	EV+ 5% 3.40	2.12
Nordicbet	3.35	EV+ 6% 3.45	2.12

Odds updated 19 Oct, 19:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Charlton Athletic win since 17 October — the odds have shortened from 3.65 to 3.15 (−14%).

1-14 %

32 %22 %

3.65 → 3.15

X-6 %

31 %21 %

3.60 → 3.40

2+13 %

51 %41 %

1.88 → 2.12

LeoVegas · 17 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 19/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Charlton Athletic 0Draw 0Norwich City 2

Goals: 0–2 (⌀ 1)

Head-to-head based on Championship data since 2023.

Key facts

Norwich City have lost 4 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Charlton Athletic

Norwich City

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Charlton Athletic (10–13)

Norwich City (17–20)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Charlton Athletic

Norwich City

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Charlton Athletic

Norwich City

The teams in numbers

Performance	Charlton Athletic	Norwich City
Points	14	9
xPoints	13.1	14.3
xG per match	1.1	1.5
xGA per match	1.5	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.07	0.2
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.21	0.18

Playing style	Charlton Athletic	Norwich City
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.28
Field tilt	0.28	0.54
xT per match	0.73	0.97
xTA per match	1.2	1
Won balls, offensive half	24	26
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.34
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.3
Entries into the box per match	9	11
Entries into the box against	15	11
Pass completion %	0.7	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.65	0.66
Passes per match	258	345
Passes against per match	424	324
Switches of play per match	18.6	21.2
Long balls per match	25	28

Set pieces	Charlton Athletic	Norwich City
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.04
Corners per match	4.7	4.5
Corners against per match	6.3	4.3
xG per corner	0.06	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.45	0.4
First touch, defensive corners %	0.54	0.56

Other	Charlton Athletic	Norwich City
Throw-in control	0.72	0.78

The goalkeepers	Arthur Chukwuezugo Okonkwo (Charlton Athletic)	Vladan Kovačević (Norwich City)
Saves	30	23
Save %	71%	55%
xG prevented	46%	36%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Charlton Athletic

Fixtures, form & tips

Norwich City

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Charlton Athletic vs Norwich City according to our model?

The model gives Norwich City a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Charlton Athletic 30%, draw 31%, Norwich City 40%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Charlton Athletic vs Norwich City?

The model expects 1.07 goals (xG) for Charlton Athletic and 1.43 for Norwich City, 2.50 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Charlton Athletic or draw (1X) 60%, Norwich City or draw (X2) 70% and no draw (12) 69%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.