01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Portsmouth or draw (1X)67%
- Under 3.5 goals71%
EFL ChampionshipFratton Park, Portsmouth10°12,8 mm28 km/h
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PortsmouthCounter-attacks & crossesvs
MillwallCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Portsmouth (36%)Soft drawBest value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.40 (+3 %)
Portsmouth vs Millwall · EFL Championship
1 · Portsmouth 36%X 30%34% Millwall · 2
36%
30%
34%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Portsmouth vs Millwall (EFL Championship, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Portsmouth win 36%, draw 30%, Millwall win 34%. Expected goals (xG): Portsmouth 1.44, Millwall 1.26. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: Portsmouth or draw 66%, Millwall or draw 64%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
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Analysis: Portsmouth – Millwall
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
TEXT: Portsmouth's recent success has often hinged on their ability to exploit counter-attacks and utilize crosses, a style they share with Millwall, making this matchup fascinating. With both teams mirroring each other's approach, the question is who can better impose their will on the match. Portsmouth may have a slight edge, as their defensive organization has allowed fewer expected goals against (xGA) per match at 1.2 compared to Millwall's 1.4. However, Millwall's higher expected goals (xG) per match at 1.8 suggests they might be more potent in front of goal.
The head-to-head record since 2023 is split evenly between the two sides, with each team securing two victories in their four encounters. This small sample size suggests that historical outcomes should be taken with a pinch of salt in evaluating the current dynamics. Instead, the season's form and expected goals provide a clearer picture.
Despite Portsmouth's home advantage and model lean, Millwall comes into this fixture with a slight edge in both points and xPoints, accumulating 14 and 15.8 respectively, compared to Portsmouth's 11 and 12.3. This points to a marginally stronger overall performance by Millwall so far this season, though Portsmouth's defensive resilience at home could prove pivotal.
The most likely scoreline, according to the model, is a 1-1 draw (13%), with a slight possibility of Portsmouth edging it 1-0 or 2-1, each at 9%. The expected goals for both teams, Portsmouth at 1.44 and Millwall at 1.26, hint at a tight contest. With the likelihood of both teams scoring at 55% and a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals, there is a reasonable expectation for goals.
For punters seeking value, the draw stands out given the model's 30% probability, reflecting the balanced nature of the matchup and both teams' similar playing styles.
PortsmouthForm WDDLW
League ranking xG #12xGA #4xT #12xP/match #13Points #16
Key players
- Zak SwansonLWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.06
- Colby BishopFxG 0.15 · xT 0.10
- Madiodio DiaCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.08
MillwallForm LDDWL
League ranking xG #4xGA #12xT #5xP/match #7Points #12
Key players
- Jake CooperCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.04
- Caleb Joaquin TaylorCBxG 0.13 · xT 0.06
- Lyndon John DykesFxG 0.45 · xT 0.09
Match prediction: Portsmouth – Millwall
Predicted score matrix
Millwall →
Portsmouth →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.1%
0–18.1%
0–25.3%
0–32.2%
0–4+0.9%
1
1–09.3%
1–112.6%
1–27.7%
1–33.2%
1–4+1.3%
2
2–07.0%
2–18.8%
2–25.5%
2–32.3%
2–4+1.0%
3
3–03.4%
3–14.2%
3–22.7%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–01.7%
4+–12.1%
4+–21.3%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-09%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.1-28%
Expected goals
1,44–1,26
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,707%
117%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,549%
@1.83
Over 2,551%
@1.98EV+0%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Portsmouth or draw (1X)67%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Adrian Segecic to score16%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Camiel Neghli to score34%
- Marlon Pack to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw30% probability@3.40BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
- X · Draw30% probability@3.40NordicbetEV+3%reference odds
- Over 3.529% probability@3.57BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Portsmouth | X | 2 · Millwall |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.60 | EV+ 3% 3.40 | 2.60 |
| LeoVegas | 2.55 | EV+ 1% 3.35 | 2.55 |
| Nordicbet | 2.60 | EV+ 3% 3.40 | 2.60 |
Odds updated 19 Oct, 16:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Millwall win since 17 October — the odds have shortened from 2.80 to 2.55 (−9%).
1+7 %
40 %35 %
2.38 → 2.55
X+2 %
30 %25 %
3.30 → 3.35
2-9 %
37 %32 %
2.80 → 2.55
LeoVegas · 4 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 19/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesPortsmouth 2Draw 0Millwall 2
Goals: 7–5 (⌀ 3)
Head-to-head based on Championship data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Portsmouth
Millwall
Portsmouth (12–13)
Millwall (16–16)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Portsmouth
Millwall
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Portsmouth
Millwall
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Portsmouth | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 11 | 14 |
| xPoints | 12.3 | 15.8 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.2 | 0.32 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| Playing style | Portsmouth | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.59 | 0.39 |
| xT per match | 0.95 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 0.86 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 29 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 15 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.67 | 0.64 |
| Passes per match | 316 | 265 |
| Passes against per match | 251 | 332 |
| Switches of play per match | 29.9 | 25.4 |
| Long balls per match | 35 | 36 |
| Set pieces | Portsmouth | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 6.9 | 5.2 |
| Corners against per match | 4.9 | 6.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.37 | 0.4 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.62 | 0.5 |
| Other | Portsmouth | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.73 | 0.72 |
| The goalkeepers | Daniel Bielica (Portsmouth) | Maxime Teremoana Crocombe (Millwall) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 15 | 13 |
| Save % | 79% | 62% |
| xG prevented | 65% | 37% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Bolton Wanderers – Middlesbrough23 October 2026 21:00 CEST
- Queens Park Rangers – Swansea City24 October 2026
- Charlton Athletic – Norwich City24 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Sheffield United – Derby County24 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Stoke City – Bristol City24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Blackburn Rovers – Wrexham24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Lincoln City – Burnley24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Wolverhampton – Watford24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Preston North End – West Bromwich Albion24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Portsmouth vs Millwall according to our model?
The model gives Portsmouth a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Portsmouth 36%, draw 30%, Millwall 34%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Portsmouth vs Millwall?
The model expects 1.44 goals (xG) for Portsmouth and 1.26 for Millwall, 2.70 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Portsmouth or draw (1X) 66%, Millwall or draw (X2) 64% and no draw (12) 70%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.