01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Lincoln City or draw (1X)65%
- Under 3.5 goals73%
EFL ChampionshipSincil Bank, Lincoln8°4,7 mm31 km/h
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Lincoln CityLow block & directvs
BurnleyPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Lincoln City (38%)
Lincoln City vs Burnley · EFL Championship
1 · Lincoln City 38%X 30%32% Burnley · 2
38%
30%
32%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Lincoln City vs Burnley (EFL Championship, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Lincoln City win 38%, draw 30%, Burnley win 32%. Expected goals (xG): Lincoln City 1.34, Burnley 1.27. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Lincoln City or draw 68%, Burnley or draw 62%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
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Analysis: Lincoln City – Burnley
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
TEXT: Burnley's scoring streak of 15 consecutive league matches stands out immediately. The visitors have demonstrated a knack for finding the net, regardless of outcome. However, Lincoln City's recent form presents a stark contrast, with three straight losses casting doubt over their ability to capitalize on any given moment. Yet, Lincoln's higher points tally (11 to Burnley's 8) and xPoints (16.3 vs 12.6) indicate a stronger underlying performance than their current form suggests.
The hosts' profile as a low defence, direct team may create opportunities against Burnley's possession-heavy approach. Lincoln's expected goals per match (1.5) surpass not just Burnley's (1.2) but also the model's xG assessment. This implies potential for more incisive chances, especially in transition. Burnley's xGA of 1.6 per match suggests vulnerabilities that Lincoln could exploit.
With the model narrowly favoring the hosts at 38% to Burnley's 32%, the match is expected to be finely balanced. The most likely outcome according to the model is a 1-1 draw (13%), with 1-0 and 0-1 each at 9%. Both teams have a reasonable likelihood to score, pegged at 53%, and the over 2.5 goals probability stands at 48% — suggesting a cautious lean towards a lower-scoring affair.
Where's the betting value? Lincoln City's edge in xPoints and their potential to bounce back against Burnley's defensive frailties present an opportunity. The model's lean towards the hosts suggests a home win could offer value, though no specific bookmaker odds are available to confirm this. The numbers suggest Lincoln's slump might not be as dire as it appears, making a home victory a calculated risk worth considering.
Lincoln CityForm WWLLL
League ranking xG #11xGA #16xT #15xP/match #4Points #18
Key players
- Robert StreetLWxG 0.29 · xT 0.30
- Callum Roddie ElderLWxG 0.03 · xT 0.26
- Ben HouseFxG 0.22 · xT 0.01
BurnleyForm DLDWD
League ranking xG #15xGA #19xT #13xP/match #17Points #21
Key players
- Jacob Bruun LarsenLWxG 0.09 · xT 0.17
- Kyle WalkerCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.17
- Igor Julio dos Santos de PauloCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.07
Match prediction: Lincoln City – Burnley
Predicted score matrix
Burnley →
Lincoln City →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.7%
0–19.0%
0–26.0%
0–32.5%
0–4+1.1%
1
1–09.4%
1–112.9%
1–28.0%
1–33.4%
1–4+1.4%
2
2–06.6%
2–18.4%
2–25.3%
2–32.3%
2–4+1.0%
3
3–02.9%
3–13.7%
3–22.4%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–01.3%
4+–11.7%
4+–21.1%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-09%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.2-18%
- 5.1-28%
Expected goals
1,34–1,27
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
118%
225%
322%
414%
5+12%
Under 2,552%
@1.92
Over 2,548%
@1.88
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Lincoln City or draw (1X)65%
- Under 2.5 goals52%
- Frederick Charles Draper to score28%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals48%
- Frederick Charles Draper to score28%
- Anel Ahmedhodžić to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Lincoln City38% probability@3.05BetsafeEV+16%reference odds
- 1 · Lincoln City38% probability@3.05NordicbetEV+16%reference odds
- 1 · Lincoln City38% probability@2.90LeoVegasEV+10%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Lincoln City | X | 2 · Burnley |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 16% 3.05 | EV+ 3% 3.45 | 2.25 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 10% 2.90 | EV+ 1% 3.40 | 2.25 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 16% 3.05 | EV+ 3% 3.45 | 2.25 |
Odds updated 19 Oct, 16:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Burnley win since 17 October — the odds have shortened from 2.55 to 2.25 (−12%).
1+12 %
38 %28 %
2.60 → 2.90
X+1 %
32 %22 %
3.35 → 3.40
2-12 %
44 %34 %
2.55 → 2.25
LeoVegas · 6 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 19/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Lincoln City have lost 3 in a row.
- Burnley have scored in 15 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Lincoln City
Burnley
Lincoln City (7–17)
Burnley (15–19)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Lincoln City
Burnley
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Lincoln City
Burnley
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Lincoln City | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 11 | 8 |
| xPoints | 16.3 | 12.6 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.16 | 0.17 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| Playing style | Lincoln City | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.36 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.27 | 0.46 |
| xT per match | 0.91 | 0.93 |
| xTA per match | 1 | 0.99 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 28 | 18 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 17 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.62 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.59 | 0.72 |
| Passes per match | 190 | 371 |
| Passes against per match | 441 | 398 |
| Switches of play per match | 17.3 | 30.8 |
| Long balls per match | 29 | 31 |
| Set pieces | Lincoln City | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.13 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 3.8 | 4.8 |
| Corners against per match | 7.9 | 4.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.58 | 0.7 |
| Other | Lincoln City | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.68 | 0.69 |
| The goalkeepers | George Wickens (Lincoln City) | Max Weiß (Burnley) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 35 | 16 |
| Save % | 67% | 50% |
| xG prevented | 39% | 34% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Bolton Wanderers – Middlesbrough23 October 2026 21:00 CEST
- Queens Park Rangers – Swansea City24 October 2026
- Charlton Athletic – Norwich City24 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Portsmouth – Millwall24 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Sheffield United – Derby County24 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Stoke City – Bristol City24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Blackburn Rovers – Wrexham24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Wolverhampton – Watford24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Preston North End – West Bromwich Albion24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Lincoln City vs Burnley according to our model?
The model gives Lincoln City a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lincoln City 38%, draw 30%, Burnley 32%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Lincoln City vs Burnley?
The model expects 1.34 goals (xG) for Lincoln City and 1.27 for Burnley, 2.61 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Lincoln City or draw (1X) 68%, Burnley or draw (X2) 62% and no draw (12) 70%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.