Accrington Stanley vs Cheltenham Town Prediction: Home win 41% (3 Oct 2026)

EFL League Two3 October 2026Wham Stadium, Accrington13°21,6 mm20 km/h

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Accrington StanleyLow block & direct

Cheltenham TownLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Accrington Stanley (41%)

1 · Accrington Stanley 41%X 29%30% Cheltenham Town · 2

41%

29%

30%

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Analysis: Accrington Stanley – Cheltenham Town

Sofia Andersson · 25 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Cheltenham Town arrive with a five-match unbeaten streak, yet the model leans towards Accrington Stanley at 41%. Despite Cheltenham's better points tally, the hosts have the edge in xPoints at 8.8 compared to 8.1. The expected goals further underline Accrington's potential, with an xG per match of 1.6 against Cheltenham's 1.1. This suggests a tighter contest than the points table might suggest.

Both teams play with a similar low defence, direct style, which could lead to a scrappy affair. Accrington's defensive frailties are apparent in their xGA of 1.8 per match, compared to the visitors' 1.5. This defensive vulnerability might explain why both teams to score has a 54% probability. Although Cheltenham have found the net in eight consecutive matches, their scoring potency doesn't fully match Accrington’s attacking potential.

With a predicted 1-1 scoreline at 13% and an over 2.5 goals likelihood sitting evenly at 50%, this clash is finely balanced. The sharpest angle lies in backing a 1-1 draw, yet for value seekers, exploring the home win at 41% probability could be tempting, especially if a bookmaker like Bet365 offers favorable odds, currently standing at 2.4.

Accrington Stanley

Form LDWLD

League ranking xG #7xGA #23xT #8xP/match #10Points #22

Key players

Donald LoveRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.30
Charlie CatonFxG 0.57 · xT 0.04
Josh Stanley Ronald WoodsFxG 0.45 · xT 0.08

Cheltenham Town

Form DWDWD

League ranking xG #20xGA #18xT #19xP/match #14Points #5

Key players

Charlie Liam McCannCAMxG 0.33 · xT 0.13
Ryan BroomRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.04
Robbie David CundyCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.03

Match prediction: Accrington Stanley – Cheltenham Town

Predicted score matrix

Cheltenham Town →

Accrington Stanley →

0–07.3%

0–18.0%

0–25.0%

0–32.0%

0–4+0.8%

1–09.9%

1–112.6%

1–27.3%

1–32.9%

1–4+1.1%

2–07.5%

2–19.0%

2–25.4%

2–32.1%

2–4+0.8%

3–03.7%

3–14.4%

3–22.6%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.4%

4+–01.9%

4+–12.2%

4+–21.3%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-010%
3.2-19%
4.0-18%
5.2-07%

Expected goals

1,47–1,20

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+13%

Under 2,550%

–

Over 2,550%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Accrington Stanley or draw (1X)69%
Under 3.5 goals72%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Accrington Stanley or draw (1X)69%
Under 2.5 goals50%
Charlie George Caton to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Charlie George Caton to score25%
Ben Edward Stevenson to be booked20%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Accrington Stanley 1Draw 1Cheltenham Town 2

Goals: 4–4 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.

Key facts

Cheltenham Town are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
Cheltenham Town have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Accrington Stanley

Cheltenham Town

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Accrington Stanley (10–13)

Cheltenham Town (14–11)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Accrington Stanley

Cheltenham Town

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Accrington Stanley

Cheltenham Town

The teams in numbers

Performance	Accrington Stanley	Cheltenham Town
Points	5	11
xPoints	8.8	8.1
xG per match	1.6	1.1
xGA per match	1.8	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.53	0.28
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.45	0.15

Playing style	Accrington Stanley	Cheltenham Town
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.33
Field tilt	0.43	0.35
xT per match	0.97	0.66
xTA per match	1.2	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	28	23
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.39	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.33	0.31
Entries into the box per match	12	8
Entries into the box against	13	15
Pass completion %	0.59	0.62
Pass completion % under pressure	0.56	0.59
Passes per match	204	245
Passes against per match	270	353
Switches of play per match	18.9	14.4
Long balls per match	32	25

Set pieces	Accrington Stanley	Cheltenham Town
xG from free kicks	0.07	0
Corners per match	3.4	4
Corners against per match	5.6	6
xG per corner	0.01	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.33	0.42
First touch, defensive corners %	0.74	0.61

Other	Accrington Stanley	Cheltenham Town
Throw-in control	0.67	0.67

The goalkeepers	Louie Moulden (Accrington Stanley)	Wylliam Sam Stanway (Cheltenham Town)
Saves	25	15
Save %	69%	58%
xG prevented	52%	30%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Accrington Stanley

Fixtures, form & tips

Cheltenham Town

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Accrington Stanley vs Cheltenham Town according to our model?

The model gives Accrington Stanley a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Accrington Stanley 41%, draw 29%, Cheltenham Town 30%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.