01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Fleetwood Town or draw (X2)71%
- Under 3.5 goals73%
EFL League TwoWhaddon Road, Cheltenham11°17,1 mm14 km/h
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Cheltenham TownLow block & direct4–2
Fleetwood TownCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 2 · Fleetwood Town (43%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.45 (+1 %)
Cheltenham Town vs Fleetwood Town · EFL League Two
1 · Cheltenham Town 28%X 29%43% Fleetwood Town · 2
28%
29%
43%
Prediction summary
Final score 4–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Cheltenham Town vs Fleetwood Town (EFL League Two, Tuesday, 20 October 2026): Cheltenham Town win 28%, draw 29%, Fleetwood Town win 43%. Expected goals (xG): Cheltenham Town 1.15, Fleetwood Town 1.49. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Cheltenham Town or draw 57%, Fleetwood Town or draw 72%. Prediction updated Monday, 12 October 2026.
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Cheltenham Town – Fleetwood Town
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Cheltenham Town's recent form paints a grim picture as they head into the clash against Fleetwood Town, having dropped their last three games. Despite their struggles, they hold a slender points advantage over Fleetwood, underscoring the competitive balance of this encounter. However, the model's probabilities clearly tilt in favor of the visitors, who are given a 43% chance of winning compared to Cheltenham's 28%.
Fleetwood's edge comes from their ability to exploit counterattacks and utilize crosses effectively, posing a significant threat to Cheltenham's vulnerable defense. The expected goals tally further highlights this, with Fleetwood projected at 1.49 xG compared to Cheltenham's 1.15. These numbers suggest that the visitors are more likely to find the back of the net.
The head-to-head record between these sides since 2023, though limited to just four games, shows a slight advantage for Fleetwood with two wins to Cheltenham's one. This small sample size is less telling than the current form and expected goals data, but it serves as a minor confidence booster for the visitors.
Weather conditions, with over 9mm of rain, could dampen the attacking play, aligning with the model's lean towards a lower-scoring affair. Both teams to score is rated at 53%, but the rain and Cheltenham's low defensive profile might suppress their offensive output.
The sharpest angle here lies in the market's oversight on goal totals. Under 2.5 goals offers value with a 1% edge at odds of 1.98 through Betsafe and Nordicbet. Given the weather and playing styles, this represents a sensible play. Moreover, considering the forecast and both teams' recent performances, a 1-1 draw or perhaps a narrow 0-1 victory for Fleetwood seems the most plausible outcome.
Cheltenham TownForm DWLLL
League ranking xG #22xGA #21xT #24xP/match #20Points #8
Key players
- Charlie Liam McCannCAMxG 0.25 · xT 0.10
- James Steven WilsonCBxG 0.14 · xT 0.06
- Robbie David CundyCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.03
Fleetwood TownForm LLLDW
League ranking xG #16xGA #17xT #7xP/match #21Points #10
Key players
- Shaun RooneyCBxG 0.11 · xT 0.10
- Harrison NealCDMxG 0.06 · xT 0.08
- Mark HelmLWxG 0.13 · xT 0.14
Final score
4 – 2
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Cheltenham Town 28% · Draw 29% · Fleetwood Town 43%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - FleetwoodBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,98fair 8,87-21 %
MissMatchresultat - CheltenhamBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 10,07fair 14,83-32 %
HitMatch prediction: Cheltenham Town – Fleetwood Town
Predicted score matrix
Fleetwood Town →
Cheltenham Town →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.5%
0–110.3%
0–28.0%
0–33.9%
0–4+2.0%
1
1–07.9%
1–112.6%
1–29.1%
1–34.5%
1–4+2.3%
2
2–04.7%
2–17.0%
2–25.2%
2–32.6%
2–4+1.3%
3
3–01.8%
3–12.7%
3–22.0%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–00.7%
4+–11.0%
4+–20.7%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.1-29%
- 4.0-28%
- 5.1-08%
Expected goals
1,15–1,49
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
118%
225%
322%
414%
5+13%
Under 2,551%
@1.97EV+1%
Over 2,549%
@1.87
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Fleetwood Town or draw (X2)71%
- Under 2.5 goals51%
- Chedwyn Michael Evans to score19%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals49%
- Andreas Weimann to score22%
- Shaun Antony Rooney to be booked17%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw29% probability@3.45PinnacleEV+1%reference odds
- Under 3.573% probability@1.38LeoVegasEV+1%reference odds
- Under 2.551% probability@1.97PinnacleEV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Cheltenham Town | X | 2 · Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 3.15 | 3.30 | 2.15 |
| LeoVegas | 3.05 | 3.35 | 2.20 |
| Nordicbet | 3.15 | 3.30 | 2.15 |
| Pinnacle | 3.20 | EV+ 1% 3.45 | 2.24 |
Odds updated 20 Oct, 11:36
Odds movement
1+10 %
33 %28 %
2.92 → 3.20
X+3 %
31 %26 %
3.34 → 3.45
2-5 %
44 %39 %
2.37 → 2.24
Over 2,5+4 %
54 %49 %
1.80 → 1.87
Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 18/10/2026 → 20/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesCheltenham Town 1Draw 1Fleetwood Town 2
Goals: 4–6 (⌀ 2,5)
Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.
Key facts
- Cheltenham Town have lost 3 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Cheltenham Town
Fleetwood Town
Cheltenham Town (17–20)
Fleetwood Town (12–11)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Cheltenham Town
Fleetwood Town
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Cheltenham Town
Fleetwood Town
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Cheltenham Town | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 15 | 14 |
| xPoints | 13.7 | 13.2 |
| xG per match | 0.99 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.27 | 0.12 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.23 | 0.14 |
| Playing style | Cheltenham Town | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.35 | 0.52 |
| xT per match | 0.52 | 1 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 0.91 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 21 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.37 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| Entries into the box per match | 7 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 17 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.66 | 0.64 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.62 | 0.62 |
| Passes per match | 284 | 270 |
| Passes against per match | 351 | 265 |
| Switches of play per match | 17.9 | 16.7 |
| Long balls per match | 28 | 29 |
| Set pieces | Cheltenham Town | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0.07 |
| Corners per match | 4.2 | 5.4 |
| Corners against per match | 6 | 5.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.65 | 0.63 |
| Other | Cheltenham Town | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.64 | 0.69 |
| The goalkeepers | Wylliam Sam Stanway (Cheltenham Town) | Jay Lynch (Fleetwood Town) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 31 | 23 |
| Save % | 62% | 68% |
| xG prevented | 36% | 40% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Exeter City – Crewe Alexandra20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Barnet – Swindon Town20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Rochdale – Grimsby Town20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Chesterfield – Colchester United20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Rotherham United – Newport County20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Northampton Town – Tranmere Rovers20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Crawley Town – Shrewsbury Town20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Bristol Rovers – Salford City20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Walsall – Oldham Athletic20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Cheltenham Town vs Fleetwood Town according to our model?
The model gives Fleetwood Town a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Cheltenham Town 28%, draw 29%, Fleetwood Town 43%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Cheltenham Town vs Fleetwood Town?
The model expects 1.15 goals (xG) for Cheltenham Town and 1.49 for Fleetwood Town, 2.63 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Cheltenham Town or draw (1X) 57%, Fleetwood Town or draw (X2) 72% and no draw (12) 71%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.