01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Grimsby Town or draw (X2)66%
- Under 3.5 goals74%
EFL League TwoSpotland, Rochdale10°11,1 mm13 km/h
Läs på svenska
RochdalePossession control2–2
Grimsby TownPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Grimsby Town (36%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.70 (+12 %)
Rochdale vs Grimsby Town · EFL League Two
1 · Rochdale 34%X 30%36% Grimsby Town · 2
34%
30%
36%
Prediction summary
Final score 2–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Rochdale vs Grimsby Town (EFL League Two, Tuesday, 20 October 2026): Rochdale win 34%, draw 30%, Grimsby Town win 36%. Expected goals (xG): Rochdale 1.23, Grimsby Town 1.34. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Rochdale or draw 64%, Grimsby Town or draw 66%. Prediction updated Monday, 12 October 2026.
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Analysis: Rochdale – Grimsby Town
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
A clash between two teams with similar playing styles often results in a tight contest, and that's precisely what's on the horizon as Rochdale hosts Grimsby Town. Both sides favor possession control, which could lead to a stalemate in the middle of the park. The hosts might feel slightly more confident with a point advantage, but the model gives a slight edge to the visitors, indicative of their better expected points and goals statistics.
Despite Grimsby Town's recent four-match losing streak, their xG of 1.7 per match suggests they have the firepower to trouble Rochdale. Meanwhile, the hosts struggle with their xG at just 0.88, indicating potential inefficiencies in front of goal. Defensively, both teams have vulnerabilities, with Rochdale's xGA sitting slightly higher at 1.5 compared to Grimsby's 1.4. Yet, in a match where both teams aim to control possession, outright chances may be scarce.
The most likely scoreline according to the model is a 1-1 draw, coming in at 13%, followed closely by a narrow 0-1 win for the visitors at 10%. Given the expected goals (1.23 for Rochdale and 1.34 for Grimsby Town), a low-scoring affair is plausible. The weather forecast, with over 11 mm of rain, might further stifle attacking opportunities, making goals an even more precious commodity.
For those seeking value, the under 2.5 goals market stands out. Betsafe offers 2.08 for this outcome, providing a 10% edge based on the model's 53% assessment. If you're feeling particularly cautious, the under 1.5 goals at odds of 4.15 with both Betsafe and Nordicbet also presents a compelling 12% edge — a nod to the likelihood of a tightly contested match under drizzly skies.
RochdaleForm WWWDL
League ranking xG #24xGA #19xT #18xP/match #24Points #12
Key players
- Sam SherringCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.11
- Charlie TaskerLBxG 0.08 · xT 0.15
- Glenn Bell Dollar MiddletonLWxG 0.06 · xT 0.24
Grimsby TownForm WLLLL
League ranking xG #5xGA #16xT #1xP/match #16Points #15
Key players
- Iwan Tomas MorganFxG 0.58 · xT 0.24
- Cameron McjannettCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.09
- Charles VernamLWxG 0.29 · xT 0.23
Final score
2 – 2
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Rochdale 34% · Draw 30% · Grimsby Town 36%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - RochdaleBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,55fair 12,74-25 %
MissMatchresultat - GrimsbyBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,45fair 10,85-41 %
MissMatch prediction: Rochdale – Grimsby Town
Predicted score matrix
Grimsby Town →
Rochdale →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.0%
0–19.9%
0–26.8%
0–33.0%
0–4+1.4%
1
1–09.1%
1–113.0%
1–28.4%
1–33.8%
1–4+1.7%
2
2–05.8%
2–17.8%
2–25.2%
2–32.3%
2–4+1.0%
3
3–02.4%
3–13.2%
3–22.1%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–01.0%
4+–11.3%
4+–20.9%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.1-28%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,23–1,34
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
119%
226%
322%
414%
5+12%
Under 2,553%
@2.12EV+6%
Over 2,547%
@1.74
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Grimsby Town or draw (X2)66%
- Under 2.5 goals53%
- Andrew Ellis Cook to score21%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals47%
- Dajaune Anthony Brown to score23%
- Geza David David Turi to be booked26%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw30% probability@3.70PinnacleEV+12%reference odds
- Under 2.553% probability@2.12PinnacleEV+12%reference odds
- 1 · Rochdale34% probability@3.20BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Rochdale | X | 2 · Grimsby Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 7% 3.20 | EV+ 3% 3.40 | 2.12 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 2% 3.05 | EV+ 6% 3.50 | 2.15 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 7% 3.20 | EV+ 3% 3.40 | 2.12 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 7% 3.18 | EV+ 12% 3.70 | 2.16 |
Odds updated 20 Oct, 13:36
Odds movement
1+2 %
33 %28 %
3.12 → 3.18
X+2 %
28 %23 %
3.61 → 3.70
2+1 %
47 %42 %
2.13 → 2.16
Over 2,5+1 %
57 %52 %
1.72 → 1.74
Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 18/10/2026 → 20/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Grimsby Town have lost 4 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Rochdale
Grimsby Town
Rochdale (13–15)
Grimsby Town (13–13)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Rochdale
Grimsby Town
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Rochdale
Grimsby Town
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Rochdale | Grimsby Town |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 14 | 13 |
| xPoints | 10.4 | 14.3 |
| xG per match | 0.88 | 1.7 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.07 | 0.23 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.24 | 0.16 |
| Playing style | Rochdale | Grimsby Town |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.44 | 0.59 |
| xT per match | 0.71 | 1.4 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 0.73 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 19 | 32 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.44 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.43 |
| Entries into the box per match | 8 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 9 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.67 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.63 |
| Passes per match | 366 | 287 |
| Passes against per match | 308 | 212 |
| Switches of play per match | 21.9 | 24.7 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 36 |
| Set pieces | Rochdale | Grimsby Town |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Corners per match | 4.7 | 6.3 |
| Corners against per match | 5.1 | 5.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.56 | 0.6 |
| Other | Rochdale | Grimsby Town |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.76 | 0.7 |
| The goalkeepers | Nils Ramming (Rochdale) | Christy James Pym (Grimsby Town) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 26 | 24 |
| Save % | 70% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 42% | 58% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Exeter City – Crewe Alexandra20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Barnet – Swindon Town20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Chesterfield – Colchester United20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Rotherham United – Newport County20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Northampton Town – Tranmere Rovers20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Crawley Town – Shrewsbury Town20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Cheltenham Town – Fleetwood Town20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Bristol Rovers – Salford City20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Walsall – Oldham Athletic20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Rochdale vs Grimsby Town according to our model?
The model gives Grimsby Town a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rochdale 34%, draw 30%, Grimsby Town 36%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Rochdale vs Grimsby Town?
The model expects 1.23 goals (xG) for Rochdale and 1.34 for Grimsby Town, 2.57 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Rochdale or draw (1X) 64%, Grimsby Town or draw (X2) 66% and no draw (12) 70%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.