01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Crawley Town or draw (1X)67%
- Under 3.5 goals77%
EFL League TwoBroadfield Stadium, Crawley12°8,3 mm12 km/h
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Crawley TownPossession control2–3
Shrewsbury TownLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Crawley Town (37%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.99 (+12 %)
Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury Town · EFL League Two
1 · Crawley Town 37%X 28%35% Shrewsbury Town · 2
37%
28%
35%
Prediction summary
Final score 2–3. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury Town (EFL League Two, Tuesday, 20 October 2026): Crawley Town win 37%, draw 28%, Shrewsbury Town win 35%. Expected goals (xG): Crawley Town 1.27, Shrewsbury Town 1.16. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 50%. Double chance: Crawley Town or draw 65%, Shrewsbury Town or draw 63%. Prediction updated Monday, 12 October 2026.
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Analysis: Crawley Town – Shrewsbury Town
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
The model's lean towards Crawley Town is intriguing, given the apparent superiority of Shrewsbury Town's season metrics. Despite the model suggesting a slight edge for Crawley, their head-to-head record, albeit small, shows no wins against Shrewsbury. This sets up a narrative where Crawley might be perceived as underdogs trying to capitalize on home advantage.
Crawley's expected goals per match sit at 1.3, which is marginally less than Shrewsbury's 1.4. However, the hosts have a glaring weakness in defense, with an average of 2.0 goals conceded per game, doubling that of the visitors. This defensive frailty could be exploited by Shrewsbury's direct playing style, making the potential for a Crawley upset less convincing despite the model's suggestion.
The expected goals for this matchup are tightly knit at 1.27 for Crawley and 1.16 for Shrewsbury. This suggests a low-scoring game, supported by the 44% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance for both teams to score. The weather conditions, with rain expected, might further suppress goal-scoring opportunities as they often favor defensive setups, which plays into Shrewsbury's hands.
While the most likely scorelines are 1-1 and 1-0, the sharpest betting angle emerges in the under markets. Specifically, the value on under 1.5 goals at odds of 3.7 with Betsafe, rated at 30% by the model, provides an 11% edge. Similarly, the under 0.5 goals at odds 12.0 with both Betsafe and Nordicbet offers an intriguing play for those inclined towards high-risk, high-reward opportunities, given the low-scoring tendencies suggested by the data.
Ultimately, while Crawley Town may have a model-backed chance, the numbers point to a closely contested affair, likely edging towards Shrewsbury Town, with conservative goal expectations favored.
Crawley TownForm LLLDL
League ranking xG #12xGA #24xT #12xP/match #23Points #24
Key players
- Jude ArthursCMxG 0.15 · xT 0.06
- Adetokunbo Bamidele AdeyemoRWxG 0.05 · xT 0.12
- Charlie Mel BarkerCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.07
Shrewsbury TownForm DDWLW
League ranking xG #8xGA #2xT #10xP/match #2Points #11
Key players
- Tom SangRWxG 0.01 · xT 0.19
- Kian McMahon-BrownLWxG 0.20 · xT 0.04
- Sam StubbsCBxG 0.13 · xT 0.08
Final score
2 – 3
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Crawley Town 37% · Draw 28% · Shrewsbury Town 35%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Crawley TownBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,21fair 12,34-25 %
MissMatchresultat - ShrewsburyBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,49fair 14,79-49 %
HitMatch prediction: Crawley Town – Shrewsbury Town
Predicted score matrix
Shrewsbury Town →
Crawley Town →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–09.2%
0–19.9%
0–25.9%
0–32.3%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–010.9%
1–113.4%
1–27.5%
1–32.9%
1–4+1.1%
2
2–07.1%
2–18.2%
2–24.8%
2–31.8%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–03.0%
3–13.5%
3–22.0%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.3%
4+–11.5%
4+–20.8%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.0-110%
- 4.0-09%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,27–1,16
Both teams to score
50%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,409%
121%
226%
321%
413%
5+10%
Under 2,556%
@1.99EV+8%
Over 2,544%
@1.85
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Crawley Town or draw (1X)67%
- Under 2.5 goals56%
- Dylan Morgan to score21%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score50%
- Over 2.5 goals44%
- Dylan Morgan to score21%
- Jay Turner-Cooke to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.556% probability@1.99PinnacleEV+12%reference odds
- Under 0.59% probability@12.00BetsafeEV+11%reference odds
- Under 0.59% probability@12.00NordicbetEV+11%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Crawley Town | X | 2 · Shrewsbury Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM UK | 2.50 | 3.35 | 2.60 |
| Betsafe | EV+ 6% 2.85 | 3.30 | 2.35 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 6% 2.85 | 3.30 | 2.35 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 6% 2.85 | 3.30 | 2.35 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 7% 2.89 | 3.47 | 2.42 |
Odds updated 20 Oct, 11:36
Odds movement
1+3 %
36 %31 %
2.80 → 2.89
X+4 %
30 %25 %
3.35 → 3.47
2-1 %
41 %36 %
2.45 → 2.42
Over 2,5+1 %
54 %49 %
1.83 → 1.85
Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 18/10/2026 → 20/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesCrawley Town 0Draw 1Shrewsbury Town 1
Goals: 0–1 (⌀ 0,5)
Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Crawley Town
Shrewsbury Town
Crawley Town (9–17)
Shrewsbury Town (10–15)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Crawley Town
Shrewsbury Town
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Crawley Town
Shrewsbury Town
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Crawley Town | Shrewsbury Town |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 5 | 14 |
| xPoints | 9.7 | 18.5 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 2 | 0.95 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.45 | 0.14 |
| Playing style | Crawley Town | Shrewsbury Town |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.5 | 0.43 |
| xT per match | 0.88 | 0.9 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 0.88 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 30 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.71 | 0.58 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.65 | 0.55 |
| Passes per match | 318 | 193 |
| Passes against per match | 259 | 309 |
| Switches of play per match | 23.9 | 13.9 |
| Long balls per match | 29 | 28 |
| Set pieces | Crawley Town | Shrewsbury Town |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| Corners per match | 3.9 | 5.5 |
| Corners against per match | 5.4 | 4.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.53 | 0.49 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.51 | 0.67 |
| Other | Crawley Town | Shrewsbury Town |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.78 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Nicholas Jake Michalski (Crawley Town) | William Michael Brook (Shrewsbury Town) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 16 | 17 |
| Save % | 64% | 53% |
| xG prevented | 52% | 36% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Exeter City – Crewe Alexandra20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Barnet – Swindon Town20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Rochdale – Grimsby Town20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Chesterfield – Colchester United20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Rotherham United – Newport County20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Northampton Town – Tranmere Rovers20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Cheltenham Town – Fleetwood Town20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Bristol Rovers – Salford City20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Walsall – Oldham Athletic20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury Town according to our model?
The model gives Crawley Town a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Crawley Town 37%, draw 28%, Shrewsbury Town 35%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury Town?
The model expects 1.27 goals (xG) for Crawley Town and 1.16 for Shrewsbury Town, 2.42 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Crawley Town or draw (1X) 65%, Shrewsbury Town or draw (X2) 63% and no draw (12) 72%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.