01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Chesterfield to win58%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
EFL League TwoSMH Group Stadium, Chesterfield11°11,0 mm12 km/h
Läs på svenska
ChesterfieldPossession control1–1
Colchester UnitedPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Chesterfield (58%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 4.34 (+9 %)
Chesterfield vs Colchester United · EFL League Two
1 · Chesterfield 58%X 25%17% Colchester United · 2
58%
25%
17%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Chesterfield vs Colchester United (EFL League Two, Tuesday, 20 October 2026): Chesterfield win 58%, draw 25%, Colchester United win 17%. Expected goals (xG): Chesterfield 2.04, Colchester United 0.92. Most likely score: 2-0 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Chesterfield or draw 83%, Colchester United or draw 42%. Prediction updated Monday, 12 October 2026.
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Analysis: Chesterfield – Colchester United
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
The matchup between Chesterfield and Colchester United presents a classic case of defensive prowess versus inconsistency. Chesterfield's possession-oriented approach has them well positioned to control the game, particularly given their superior expected goals (2.04 against Colchester's 0.92) and lower expected goals against per match (1.0 compared to Colchester's 1.5). This suggests a tactical edge that the hosts are likely to exploit, potentially leading to a narrow victory.
Despite the small head-to-head sample of four matches since 2023, it’s Chesterfield’s current form that resonates more. With a points advantage of 15 to 11 and an even more pronounced lead in xPoints, Chesterfield appears to be on sturdier ground. The most probable scorelines—2-0 and 1-0—underscore their defensive mettle and the likelihood of keeping Colchester at bay. While Colchester also prefers a possession-based style, they have struggled to convert this into tangible results, making them vulnerable.
The over 2.5 goals probability stands at 57%, yet the anticipated weather, featuring 9.5 mm of rain, could dampen scoring opportunities, suggesting a closer game. Given Chesterfield's defensive solidity and Colchester's erratic form, a 2-0 result seems realistic, aligning with Chesterfield's controlled play.
For those inclined towards value, the draw offers a tempting edge. LeoVegas provides odds of 4.2 for a draw, a 5% value according to the model's 25% draw probability. While the under 0.5 odds of 19.0 with both Betsafe and Nordicbet are intriguing for their potential payout, it's the draw that merits consideration in this controlled, cagey affair.
ChesterfieldForm WLWDL
League ranking xG #2xGA #4xT #3xP/match #4Points #7
Key players
- Kyle McfadzeanCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.12
- Lewis GordonLBxG 0.05 · xT 0.09
- Lee BonisFxG 0.55 · xT 0.05
Colchester UnitedForm DDDLD
League ranking xG #14xGA #18xT #5xP/match #22Points #20
Key players
- Ellis IandoloLBxG 0.06 · xT 0.21
- Jack PayneCAMxG 0.27 · xT 0.21
- Jack TuckerCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.13
Final score
1 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Chesterfield 58% · Draw 25% · Colchester United 17%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - ChesterfieldBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,67fair 5,37-13 %
MissMatchresultat - ColchesterBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 15,74fair 26,01-39 %
MissMatch prediction: Chesterfield – Colchester United
Predicted score matrix
Colchester United →
Chesterfield →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.5%
0–14.5%
0–22.2%
0–30.7%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–010.3%
1–110.0%
1–24.5%
1–31.4%
1–4+0.4%
2
2–010.8%
2–19.9%
2–24.6%
2–31.4%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–07.3%
3–16.7%
3–23.1%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–05.9%
4+–15.5%
4+–22.5%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-011%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.1-110%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.3-07%
Expected goals
2,04–0,92
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
115%
223%
322%
417%
5+18%
Under 2,543%
@2.27
Over 2,557%
@1.65
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Chesterfield to win58%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Ruel Dimitrios Sotiriou to score37%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Ruel Dimitrios Sotiriou to score37%
- Ellis Carlos Iandolo to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw25% probability@4.34PinnacleEV+9%reference odds
- X · Draw25% probability@4.20LeoVegasEV+5%reference odds
- X · Draw25% probability@4.15BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Chesterfield | X | 2 · Colchester United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.58 | EV+ 4% 4.15 | 4.90 |
| LeoVegas | 1.57 | EV+ 5% 4.20 | 4.90 |
| Nordicbet | 1.58 | EV+ 4% 4.15 | 4.90 |
| Pinnacle | 1.58 | EV+ 9% 4.34 | 5.19 |
Odds updated 20 Oct, 12:36
Odds movement
1+1 %
62 %57 %
1.56 → 1.58
X+1 %
25 %20 %
4.28 → 4.34
2+3 %
21 %16 %
5.02 → 5.19
Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 18/10/2026 → 20/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesChesterfield 1Draw 1Colchester United 2
Goals: 6–8 (⌀ 3,5)
Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Chesterfield
Colchester United
Chesterfield (17–15)
Colchester United (10–13)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Chesterfield
Colchester United
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Chesterfield
Colchester United
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Chesterfield | Colchester United |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 15 | 11 |
| xPoints | 17.5 | 11 |
| xG per match | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.39 | 0.15 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| Playing style | Chesterfield | Colchester United |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.69 | 0.54 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 0.77 | 0.85 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 27 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| Entries into the box per match | 17 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 9 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.74 | 0.71 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.68 |
| Passes per match | 400 | 329 |
| Passes against per match | 253 | 256 |
| Switches of play per match | 38.1 | 24.3 |
| Long balls per match | 47 | 37 |
| Set pieces | Chesterfield | Colchester United |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 6.2 | 4.2 |
| Corners against per match | 2.3 | 4.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.43 | 0.26 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.52 | 0.69 |
| Other | Chesterfield | Colchester United |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.8 | 0.77 |
| The goalkeepers | Ryan Thomas William Boot (Chesterfield) | Thimothée Jacques Orcel Lo-Tutala (Colchester United) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 26 | 34 |
| Save % | 63% | 72% |
| xG prevented | 54% | 56% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
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- Rotherham United – Newport County20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Northampton Town – Tranmere Rovers20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
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- Cheltenham Town – Fleetwood Town20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Bristol Rovers – Salford City20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Walsall – Oldham Athletic20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Chesterfield vs Colchester United according to our model?
The model gives Chesterfield a 58% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Chesterfield 58%, draw 25%, Colchester United 17%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Chesterfield vs Colchester United?
The model expects 2.04 goals (xG) for Chesterfield and 0.92 for Colchester United, 2.96 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Chesterfield or draw (1X) 83%, Colchester United or draw (X2) 42% and no draw (12) 75%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.