01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Rotherham United or draw (1X)73%
- Under 3.5 goals79%
EFL League TwoNew York Stadium, Rotherham12°11,0 mm12 km/h
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Rotherham UnitedPossession control2–2
Newport CountyLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Rotherham United (40%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 11.00 (+11 %)
Rotherham United vs Newport County · EFL League Two
1 · Rotherham United 40%X 31%29% Newport County · 2
40%
31%
29%
Prediction summary
Final score 2–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Rotherham United vs Newport County (EFL League Two, Tuesday, 20 October 2026): Rotherham United win 40%, draw 31%, Newport County win 29%. Expected goals (xG): Rotherham United 1.35, Newport County 0.98. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%. Double chance: Rotherham United or draw 71%, Newport County or draw 60%. Prediction updated Monday, 12 October 2026.
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Rotherham United – Newport County
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
TEXT: Rotherham United's recent struggles, marked by three consecutive losses, set the stage against a Newport County side that hasn't tasted defeat in its last six league outings. Despite Rotherham's possession-based approach, the numbers suggest Newport's direct play and solid defense could prove challenging. The model sees the hosts edging it with a 40% probability, but Newport has shown resilience and could capitalize on any Rotherham slip-ups.
The expected goals data leans slightly towards Rotherham with a 1.35 to 0.98 advantage, yet the most likely scorelines — 1-1 (13%) and 1-0 (13%) — indicate a tight encounter. A predicted probability of just 41% for over 2.5 goals suggests a low-scoring affair, and the rain-soaked conditions are likely to reinforce this, potentially suppressing goal-scoring opportunities. This tactical battle between possession and directness might just see each side cancel the other out.
Both teams average the same xG per match, yet Rotherham concedes slightly more on average. Newport's edge in both actual points (14 vs. 10) and expected points (17.3 vs. 14.7) further underscores their steadier form. The draw's 31% probability hints at a tightly contested match, making this an intriguing clash of styles.
The betting markets provide some interesting angles. Notably, there's significant value on under 0.5 goals at odds of 11.0 with both Betsafe and Nordicbet. The model assigns a 10% probability to this outcome, indicating an 11% edge. There's also value in under 1.5 goals at 3.45 with Betsafe, where the model rates it at 32%, offering a 10% edge.
All signs point to a cautious affair, potentially ending 1-0 or 1-1. If you're looking for an edge, those low-goal markets might just hold the key.
Rotherham UnitedForm WDLLL
League ranking xG #15xGA #10xT #21xP/match #13Points #23
Key players
- Josh AusterfieldCMxG 0.09 · xT 0.08
- Denzel HallRBxG 0.06 · xT 0.10
- Ewan OtooLBxG 0.05 · xT 0.17
Newport CountyForm DWDWD
League ranking xG #19xGA #5xT #15xP/match #5Points #13
Key players
- Lee Thomas JenkinsCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.08
- Harrison BigginsCAMxG 0.11 · xT 0.12
- Christian Rhys DoidgeFxG 0.31 · xT 0.07
Final score
2 – 2
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Rotherham United 40% · Draw 31% · Newport County 29%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - RotherhamBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,53fair 11,44-34 %
MissMatchresultat - Newport CountyBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 11,29fair 21,20-47 %
MissMatch prediction: Rotherham United – Newport County
Predicted score matrix
Newport County →
Rotherham United →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–010.1%
0–19.2%
0–24.7%
0–31.5%
0–4+0.5%
1
1–012.7%
1–113.3%
1–26.3%
1–32.1%
1–4+0.6%
2
2–08.8%
2–18.7%
2–24.3%
2–31.4%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–04.0%
3–13.9%
3–21.9%
3–30.6%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–01.8%
4+–11.8%
4+–20.9%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-013%
- 3.0-010%
- 4.0-19%
- 5.2-09%
Expected goals
1,35–0,98
Both teams to score
47%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,3010%
122%
227%
321%
412%
5+9%
Under 2,559%
@1.86EV+7%
Over 2,541%
@1.97
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Rotherham United or draw (1X)73%
- Under 2.5 goals59%
- Paul Philip Mullin to score25%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score47%
- Over 2.5 goals41%
- Paul Philip Mullin to score25%
- Matthew Robert Smith to be booked18%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 0.510% probability@11.00BetsafeEV+11%reference odds
- Under 0.510% probability@11.00NordicbetEV+11%reference odds
- Under 2.559% probability@1.86PinnacleEV+9%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Rotherham United | X | 2 · Newport County |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.12 | EV+ 2% 3.30 | 3.25 |
| LeoVegas | 2.18 | EV+ 2% 3.30 | 3.15 |
| Nordicbet | 2.12 | EV+ 2% 3.30 | 3.25 |
| Pinnacle | 2.15 | EV+ 6% 3.44 | 3.42 |
Odds updated 20 Oct, 13:36
Odds movement
1+2 %
47 %42 %
2.10 → 2.15
X+2 %
30 %25 %
3.38 → 3.44
20 %
30 %25 %
3.42 → 3.42
Over 2,5+3 %
51 %46 %
1.92 → 1.97
Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 18/10/2026 → 20/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Rotherham United have lost 3 in a row.
- Newport County are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Rotherham United
Newport County
Rotherham United (12–18)
Newport County (14–13)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Rotherham United
Newport County
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Rotherham United
Newport County
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Rotherham United | Newport County |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 10 | 14 |
| xPoints | 14.7 | 17.3 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| Playing style | Rotherham United | Newport County |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.51 | 0.37 |
| xT per match | 0.67 | 0.79 |
| xTA per match | 0.78 | 0.91 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 32 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.66 | 0.55 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.65 | 0.55 |
| Passes per match | 283 | 169 |
| Passes against per match | 264 | 329 |
| Switches of play per match | 21.5 | 17.1 |
| Long balls per match | 29 | 29 |
| Set pieces | Rotherham United | Newport County |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| Corners per match | 3.7 | 4.4 |
| Corners against per match | 5 | 4.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.23 | 0.4 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.62 | 0.65 |
| Other | Rotherham United | Newport County |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.75 | 0.77 |
| The goalkeepers | Julian Ryan Eyestone (Rotherham United) | Jordan Wright (Newport County) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 13 | 28 |
| Save % | 56% | 72% |
| xG prevented | 20% | 42% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Exeter City – Crewe Alexandra20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Barnet – Swindon Town20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Rochdale – Grimsby Town20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Chesterfield – Colchester United20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Northampton Town – Tranmere Rovers20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Crawley Town – Shrewsbury Town20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Cheltenham Town – Fleetwood Town20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Bristol Rovers – Salford City20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Walsall – Oldham Athletic20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Rotherham United vs Newport County according to our model?
The model gives Rotherham United a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rotherham United 40%, draw 31%, Newport County 29%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 41% and under at 59%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Rotherham United vs Newport County?
The model expects 1.35 goals (xG) for Rotherham United and 0.98 for Newport County, 2.33 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Rotherham United or draw (1X) 71%, Newport County or draw (X2) 60% and no draw (12) 69%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.