01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Walsall or draw (1X)67%
- Under 3.5 goals72%
EFL League TwoBescot Stadium, Walsall11°21,6 mm15 km/h
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WalsallCounter-attacks & crosses3–0
Oldham AthleticLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Walsall (44%)
Walsall vs Oldham Athletic · EFL League Two
1 · Walsall 44%X 26%29% Oldham Athletic · 2
44%
26%
29%
Prediction summary
Final score 3–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Walsall vs Oldham Athletic (EFL League Two, Tuesday, 20 October 2026): Walsall win 44%, draw 26%, Oldham Athletic win 29%. Expected goals (xG): Walsall 1.42, Oldham Athletic 1.26. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: Walsall or draw 71%, Oldham Athletic or draw 56%. Prediction updated Monday, 12 October 2026.
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Analysis: Walsall – Oldham Athletic
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
TEXT: Walsall's unbeaten run of 10 league matches stands tall as the defining statistic ahead of their clash with Oldham Athletic. Despite the hosts' recent resilience, the expected goals model gives them a cautious edge with a 44% probability of victory. The visitors, on the other hand, come in with a modest 29% chance of snatching a win, largely due to their direct style clashing against Walsall's counter-attacking approach.
A small head-to-head sample since 2023, with each team securing one victory, offers little clarity. Instead, focus should be on current form: Walsall's counter-attacking threat versus Oldham's preference for a low block. The most likely scorelines, 1-1 and 1-0, echo the closely matched nature of these squads. The expected goals of 1.42 for the home side hints at a tight contest, potentially influenced by the forecasted rain, which often suppresses scoring.
The value lies in backing Walsall at home, with LeoVegas offering odds of 2.35, presenting a 4% edge according to the model. With both teams' scoring likelihood at 55%, the match leans slightly towards a lower-scoring affair, but caution is advised given the over 2.5 goals chance sitting at 50%. The numbers suggest a narrow 1-0 win for the hosts.
WalsallForm DWDDD
League ranking xG #4xGA #20xT #4xP/match #18Points #5
Key players
- Aaron PressleyFxG 0.60 · xT -0.01
- Reece SmithLWxG 0.19 · xT 0.26
- Courtney Alphonso ClarkeRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.28
Oldham AthleticForm LLLDW
League ranking xG #9xGA #13xT #16xP/match #10Points #19
Key players
- Calum KavanaghCAMxG 0.58 · xT 0.05
- Oliver Lewis NorburnCDMxG 0.03 · xT 0.05
- Karl Mike Fondop-TalumFxG 0.26 · xT 0.11
Final score
3 – 0
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Walsall 44% · Draw 26% · Oldham Athletic 29%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - WalsallBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,68fair 9,45-19 %
MissMatchresultat - OldhamBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 8,96fair 12,08-26 %
MissMatch prediction: Walsall – Oldham Athletic
Predicted score matrix
Oldham Athletic →
Walsall →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.2%
0–18.2%
0–25.4%
0–32.3%
0–4+0.9%
1
1–09.4%
1–112.6%
1–27.7%
1–33.2%
1–4+1.3%
2
2–06.9%
2–18.7%
2–25.5%
2–32.3%
2–4+1.0%
3
3–03.3%
3–14.1%
3–22.6%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–01.6%
4+–12.0%
4+–21.3%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-09%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.1-28%
Expected goals
1,42–1,26
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,707%
118%
225%
322%
415%
5+13%
Under 2,550%
@1.98
Over 2,550%
@1.86
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Walsall or draw (1X)67%
- Over 2.5 goals50%
- Aaron Alex Pressley to score29%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals50%
- Aaron Alex Pressley to score29%
- Thomas Daniel Hill to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Walsall44% probability@2.47PinnacleEV+9%reference odds
- 1 · Walsall44% probability@2.42BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
- 1 · Walsall44% probability@2.42NordicbetEV+7%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Walsall | X | 2 · Oldham Athletic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 7% 2.42 | 3.30 | 2.75 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 5% 2.38 | 3.40 | 2.75 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 7% 2.42 | 3.30 | 2.75 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 9% 2.47 | 3.50 | 2.79 |
Odds updated 20 Oct, 13:36
Odds movement
1+5 %
42 %37 %
2.36 → 2.47
X-1 %
30 %25 %
3.52 → 3.50
2-1 %
36 %31 %
2.81 → 2.79
Over 2,5+6 %
55 %50 %
1.75 → 1.86
Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 18/10/2026 → 20/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesWalsall 1Draw 0Oldham Athletic 1
Goals: 2–2 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.
Key facts
- Walsall are unbeaten in their last 10 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Walsall
Oldham Athletic
Walsall (13–7)
Oldham Athletic (13–14)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Walsall
Oldham Athletic
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Walsall
Oldham Athletic
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Walsall | Oldham Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 16 | 11 |
| xPoints | 12.7 | 14.1 |
| xG per match | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.35 | 0.17 |
| Playing style | Walsall | Oldham Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| Field tilt | 0.59 | 0.5 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 0.77 |
| xTA per match | 0.88 | 0.86 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 31 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.4 | 0.33 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.72 | 0.66 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.68 | 0.64 |
| Passes per match | 360 | 262 |
| Passes against per match | 235 | 326 |
| Switches of play per match | 29.9 | 17.6 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 36 |
| Set pieces | Walsall | Oldham Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| Corners per match | 6.1 | 5.6 |
| Corners against per match | 5.2 | 5.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.47 | 0.45 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.64 | 0.58 |
| Other | Walsall | Oldham Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.75 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Jed MacAulay Ward (Walsall) | Mathew Anthony Hudson (Oldham Athletic) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 39 | 21 |
| Save % | 85% | 62% |
| xG prevented | 65% | 50% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
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- Northampton Town – Tranmere Rovers20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
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- Cheltenham Town – Fleetwood Town20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Bristol Rovers – Salford City20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Walsall vs Oldham Athletic according to our model?
The model gives Walsall a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Walsall 44%, draw 26%, Oldham Athletic 29%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Walsall vs Oldham Athletic?
The model expects 1.42 goals (xG) for Walsall and 1.26 for Oldham Athletic, 2.68 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Walsall or draw (1X) 71%, Oldham Athletic or draw (X2) 56% and no draw (12) 74%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.