01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Northampton Town or draw (1X)67%
- Under 3.5 goals79%
EFL League TwoSixfields, Northampton11°10,8 mm16 km/h
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Northampton TownPossession control0–1
Tranmere RoversCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Northampton Town (36%)Best value by the model: 2 · Tranmere Rovers @ 3.27 (+6 %)
Northampton Town vs Tranmere Rovers · EFL League Two
1 · Northampton Town 36%X 32%32% Tranmere Rovers · 2
36%
32%
32%
Prediction summary
Final score 0–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Northampton Town vs Tranmere Rovers (EFL League Two, Tuesday, 20 October 2026): Northampton Town win 36%, draw 32%, Tranmere Rovers win 32%. Expected goals (xG): Northampton Town 1.22, Tranmere Rovers 1.12. Most likely score: 1-1 (14%). Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 48%. Double chance: Northampton Town or draw 68%, Tranmere Rovers or draw 64%. Prediction updated Monday, 12 October 2026.
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Analysis: Northampton Town – Tranmere Rovers
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
As we look ahead to Northampton Town hosting Tranmere Rovers, it's the visitors' counter-attacking prowess that stands out, especially given their current form. With 12 points on the board compared to the hosts' 10, and an xPoints tally of 14.3 against Northampton's 11.5, Tranmere seems to hold a subtle advantage. Their ability to generate 1.2 xG per match speaks volumes about their attacking threat on the break, a style that could frustrate Northampton's possession-based approach.
Despite the visitors' offensive edge, Northampton's defense has proven to be slightly more robust. Their xGA sits at 1.2 per match, bettering Tranmere's 1.6. Northampton’s defensive solidity might just be what keeps them in the game, especially with the weather set to dampen the flair and favor a grittier battle. The expected rain could very well suppress goal-scoring opportunities, which is already factored into the model's numbers.
The model suggests a tight contest is on the cards, with the most probable outcomes being 1-1 (14% chance) or a narrow win for either side. With expected goals for Northampton at 1.22 and Tranmere at 1.12, the match leans towards a low-scoring affair. This is further emphasized by the 41% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams finding the net.
For those looking at betting angles, there's a notable value in backing the draw at odds of 3.3 with LeoVegas, given the model's 32% likelihood — translating to a 5% edge. Additionally, the under 2.5 goals market at 1.769 offers a 4% advantage, which aligns well with the weather conditions and the xG projections. If you're hedging around defensive resilience over attacking flair, these angles provide intriguing opportunities.
Northampton TownForm WLLDW
League ranking xG #23xGA #8xT #23xP/match #17Points #22
Key players
- Lee EvansCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.05
- Owen DaleFxG 0.16 · xT 0.15
- Elliott Jordan MooreCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.08
Tranmere RoversForm DDLDL
League ranking xG #13xGA #22xT #17xP/match #15Points #17
Key players
- William Robert VaulksCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.09
- Dylan JonesFxG 0.48 · xT 0.11
- Thomas Christopher InceRWxG 0.26 · xT 0.11
Final score
0 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Northampton Town 36% · Draw 32% · Tranmere Rovers 32%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - TranmereBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 12,12fair 15,91-24 %
MissMatchresultat - NorthamptonBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 8,50fair 13,60-38 %
MissMatch prediction: Northampton Town – Tranmere Rovers
Predicted score matrix
Tranmere Rovers →
Northampton Town →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–010.0%
0–110.4%
0–26.1%
0–32.3%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–011.3%
1–113.6%
1–27.4%
1–32.8%
1–4+1.0%
2
2–07.1%
2–18.0%
2–24.5%
2–31.7%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–02.9%
3–13.2%
3–21.8%
3–30.7%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–01.1%
4+–11.3%
4+–20.7%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-114%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.0-110%
- 4.0-010%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,22–1,12
Both teams to score
48%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,3010%
122%
227%
321%
412%
5+9%
Under 2,559%
@1.71EV+0%
Over 2,541%
@2.16
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Northampton Town or draw (1X)67%
- Under 2.5 goals59%
- Joseph Oliver Wormleighton to score19%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score48%
- Over 2.5 goals41%
- Thomas Christopher Ince to score20%
- Lee Evans to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Tranmere Rovers32% probability@3.27PinnacleEV+6%reference odds
- X · Draw32% probability@3.31PinnacleEV+5%reference odds
- X · Draw32% probability@3.25LeoVegasEV+3%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Northampton Town | X | 2 · Tranmere Rovers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.22 | EV+ 2% 3.20 | EV+ 2% 3.15 |
| LeoVegas | 2.20 | EV+ 3% 3.25 | EV+ 0% 3.10 |
| Nordicbet | 2.22 | EV+ 2% 3.20 | EV+ 2% 3.15 |
| Pinnacle | 2.27 | EV+ 5% 3.31 | EV+ 6% 3.27 |
Odds updated 20 Oct, 13:36
Odds movement
10 %
44 %39 %
2.27 → 2.27
X-1 %
31 %26 %
3.33 → 3.31
2+6 %
32 %27 %
3.09 → 3.27
Over 2,5+7 %
48 %43 %
2.02 → 2.16
Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 18/10/2026 → 20/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Northampton Town
Tranmere Rovers
Northampton Town (6–7)
Tranmere Rovers (14–15)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Northampton Town
Tranmere Rovers
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Northampton Town
Tranmere Rovers
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Northampton Town | Tranmere Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 10 | 12 |
| xPoints | 11.5 | 14.3 |
| xG per match | 0.94 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.14 | 0.27 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.21 | 0.13 |
| Playing style | Northampton Town | Tranmere Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.43 | 0.41 |
| xT per match | 0.61 | 0.76 |
| xTA per match | 0.86 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 30 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.65 | 0.64 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.61 | 0.61 |
| Passes per match | 245 | 247 |
| Passes against per match | 327 | 293 |
| Switches of play per match | 14.4 | 15.6 |
| Long balls per match | 23 | 34 |
| Set pieces | Northampton Town | Tranmere Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.17 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 5.3 | 3.2 |
| Corners against per match | 3.9 | 5.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.49 | 0.33 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.68 | 0.53 |
| Other | Northampton Town | Tranmere Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.73 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Zachary Anton John Jeacock (Northampton Town) | Harrison Male (Tranmere Rovers) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 21 | 15 |
| Save % | 75% | 63% |
| xG prevented | 44% | 38% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Exeter City – Crewe Alexandra20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Barnet – Swindon Town20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Rochdale – Grimsby Town20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Chesterfield – Colchester United20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Rotherham United – Newport County20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Crawley Town – Shrewsbury Town20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Cheltenham Town – Fleetwood Town20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Bristol Rovers – Salford City20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Walsall – Oldham Athletic20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Northampton Town vs Tranmere Rovers according to our model?
The model gives Northampton Town a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Northampton Town 36%, draw 32%, Tranmere Rovers 32%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 41% and under at 59%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Northampton Town vs Tranmere Rovers?
The model expects 1.22 goals (xG) for Northampton Town and 1.12 for Tranmere Rovers, 2.34 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Northampton Town or draw (1X) 68%, Tranmere Rovers or draw (X2) 64% and no draw (12) 68%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.