01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Bristol Rovers or draw (X2)65%
- Under 3.5 goals76%
EFL League TwoBroadfield Stadium, Crawley18°10,2 mm27 km/h
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Crawley TownBalanced & physical0–2
Bristol RoversLow block & directThe model's lean: 2 · Bristol Rovers (40%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.13 (+18 %)
Crawley Town – Bristol Rovers · EFL League Two
1 · Crawley Town 34%X 26%40% Bristol Rovers · 2
34%
26%
40%
Analysis: Crawley Town – Bristol Rovers
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Two matches between Crawley Town and Bristol Rovers since 2023 split evenly, giving little guidance in predicting this clash. The small sample size here is dwarfed by more reliable indicators like season form and expected goals. Bristol Rovers, with their ability to score in 11 straight league games, suggest a more potent threat on the road.
The model's probabilities give the visitors a slight edge at 40% to win, compared to Crawley's 34%. This aligns with expected goals, where Bristol Rovers narrowly lead 1.25 to 1.22. The slim margins suggest a tight match, likely settled by a single goal or a draw; the most likely outcomes being 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (10%), or 1-0 (10%). The expected rainfall of 11.7 mm might suppress scoring opportunities, but both teams have a 51% chance to find the net regardless.
Bristol Rovers' high expected goals per match (2.4) and robust defensive metrics (xGA of 1.1) underscore their strategy of direct play, posing a consistent threat to Crawley's balanced and physical approach. Their impressive xG within 8 seconds of regaining possession (0.69) illustrates a knack for swift, effective counter-attacks — a key weapon against Crawley’s less dynamic setup.
Despite this, value hunters might find intrigue in backing the hosts. Odds on Crawley winning at 3.25 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer a 9% edge according to the model's 34% probability. While Rovers seem the stronger side on paper, these odds reflect an underestimation of Crawley's potential on their turf.
Crawley TownForm DDDLW
League ranking xG #12xGA #17xT #22xP/match #8Points #11
Key players
- Louie Shaun WatsonCAMxG 0.41 · xT 0.06
- Adetokunbo Bamidele AdeyemoLBxG 0.07 · xT 0.20
- Jonathan RussellLBxG 0.00 · xT -0.24
Bristol RoversForm WWDLW
League ranking xG #2xGA #6xT #4xP/match #1Points #16
Key players
- Clinton Lemere MolaFxG 0.17 · xT 0.02
- Fabrizio CavegnFxG 0.50 · xT 0.22
- Tommy LeighCAMxG 0.74 · xT 0.21
Final score
0 – 2
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Crawley Town 34% · Draw 26% · Bristol Rovers 40%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Crawley TownBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,36fair 13,23-29 %
MissMatchresultat - Bristol RoversBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,01fair 12,56-52 %
MissMatch prediction: Crawley Town – Bristol Rovers
Predicted score matrix
Bristol Rovers →
Crawley Town →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.9%
0–110.2%
0–26.6%
0–32.8%
0–4+1.1%
1
1–09.9%
1–113.3%
1–28.1%
1–33.4%
1–4+1.4%
2
2–06.3%
2–17.9%
2–24.9%
2–32.0%
2–4+0.8%
3
3–02.5%
3–13.2%
3–22.0%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.0%
4+–11.3%
4+–20.8%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.1-010%
- 4.0-09%
- 5.1-28%
Expected goals
1,22–1,25
Both teams to score
51%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,509%
120%
226%
321%
413%
5+10%
Under 2,555%
@2.13EV+15%
Over 2,545%
@1.74
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Bristol Rovers or draw (X2)65%
- Under 2.5 goals55%
- Fabrizio Cavegn to score29%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score51%
- Over 2.5 goals45%
- Fabrizio Cavegn to score29%
- Alfie George Alexander Kilgour to be booked19%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.555% probability@2.13PinnacleEV+18%reference odds
- Under 2.555% probability@2.08BetsafeEV+15%reference odds
- Under 2.555% probability@2.08BetssonEV+15%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Crawley Town | X | 2 · Bristol Rovers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.95 | 3.30 | 2.15 |
| Betsson | 2.95 | 3.30 | 2.15 |
| Nordicbet | 2.95 | 3.30 | 2.15 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 2% 3.03 | 3.59 | 2.27 |
Odds updated 29 Aug, 11:37
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 23 August — the odds have shortened from 1.95 to 1.74 (−11%).
1-12 %
34 %24 %
3.44 → 3.03
X+9 %
32 %22 %
3.29 → 3.59
2+7 %
48 %38 %
2.13 → 2.27
Over 2,5-11 %
57 %47 %
1.95 → 1.74
Pinnacle · 15 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesCrawley Town 1Draw 0Bristol Rovers 1
Goals: 5–3 (⌀ 4)
Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.
Key facts
- Bristol Rovers have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Crawley Town
Bristol Rovers
Crawley Town (2–2)
Bristol Rovers (7–6)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Crawley Town
Bristol Rovers
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Crawley Town
Bristol Rovers
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Crawley Town | Bristol Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 3 | 3 |
| xPoints | 3.1 | 4.3 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 2.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.07 | 0.69 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| Playing style | Crawley Town | Bristol Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.38 | 0.54 |
| xT per match | 0.53 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 19 | 30 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.32 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 20 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.71 | 0.61 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.68 | 0.64 |
| Passes per match | 247 | 216 |
| Passes against per match | 300 | 319 |
| Switches of play per match | 17.9 | 17.2 |
| Long balls per match | 22 | 47 |
| Set pieces | Crawley Town | Bristol Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 3.3 | 8.6 |
| Corners against per match | 7.6 | 4 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.56 | 0.62 |
| Other | Crawley Town | Bristol Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.82 | 0.8 |
| The goalkeepers | Nicholas Jake Michalski (Crawley Town) | Brad Young (Bristol Rovers) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 5 | 2 |
| Save % | 71% | 25% |
| xG prevented | 47% | 14% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Crawley Town vs Bristol Rovers according to our model?
The model gives Bristol Rovers a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Crawley Town 34%, draw 26%, Bristol Rovers 40%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.