Port Vale vs Crewe Alexandra: Prediction & Odds (29 Aug 2026)

EFL League Two29 August 2026 13:30 CESTVale Park, Stoke-on-Trent16°9,8 mm14 km/h

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Port ValePossession control

0–0

Crewe AlexandraCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Port Vale (43%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.90 (+8 %)

1 · Port Vale 43%X 28%30% Crewe Alexandra · 2

43%

28%

30%

Analysis: Port Vale – Crewe Alexandra

Sofia Andersson · 27 August 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Two matches into their head-to-head history since 2023, Port Vale have yet to taste defeat against Crewe Alexandra, boasting a win and a draw. However, this small sample doesn't overshadow the more telling statistics of current form and expected goals. Crewe have been the superior side in terms of points and underlying numbers, outperforming the hosts in xPoints, xG, and xGA. Despite the head-to-head outcomes, Crewe's stronger metrics offer a compelling narrative.

Port Vale's possession control strategy is set to clash with Crewe's counter-attacking and crossing prowess. The tactical battle may unfold as expected, but the weather forecast of rain is likely to dampen goal-scoring opportunities, a factor already accounted for in the model's numbers. With expected goals of 1.27 for Vale and 1.14 for Crewe, the anticipation leans towards a low-scoring affair, though both sides are projected to find the net almost equally according to the 49% both teams to score probability.

The model gives Port Vale a slight edge with a 43% chance of victory, suggesting a tight contest. The most likely scorelines of 1-1, 1-0, and 0-1 further accentuate the close nature expected. Notably, the over 2.5 goals probability sits at just 43%, indicating limited attacking fireworks.

In betting terms, the standout angle lies in the under 1.5 goals market. With Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offering odds of 3.55, the model identifies a 7% edge, asserting a 30% probability of the game ending with fewer than two goals. This value proposition aligns with the expected cautious playstyle influenced by Crewe's defensive strengths and the forecasted weather conditions.

Port Vale

Form DWLLD

League ranking xG #16xGA #7xT #10xP/match #17Points #20

Key players

Modou Lamin FaalFxG 0.49 · xT 0.01
Kyle Michael DempseyRWxG 0.00 · xT 0.10
Cameron HumphreysCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.03

Crewe Alexandra

Form LLDWW

League ranking xG #8xGA #2xT #8xP/match #3Points #2

Key players

Josh MarchFxG 0.51 · xT 0.06
Matus HolicekCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.04
Luke William OffordCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.11

Final score

0 – 0

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Port Vale 43% · Draw 28% · Crewe Alexandra 30%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - CreweBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 10,53fair 15,17-31 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Port ValeBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 7,52fair 12,29-39 %

Miss

Match prediction: Port Vale – Crewe Alexandra

Predicted score matrix

Crewe Alexandra →

Port Vale →

0–09.3%

0–19.8%

0–25.8%

0–32.2%

0–4+0.8%

1–011.0%

1–113.4%

1–27.4%

1–32.8%

1–4+1.0%

2–07.2%

2–18.3%

2–24.7%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.7%

3–03.1%

3–13.5%

3–22.0%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.3%

4+–11.5%

4+–20.8%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-011%
3.0-110%
4.0-09%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,27–1,14

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

121%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,557%

@1.90EV+8%

Over 2,543%

@1.93

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Port Vale or draw (1X)67%
Under 3.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Port Vale or draw (1X)67%
Under 2.5 goals57%
Benjamin Matthew Garrity to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Joshua Thomas March to score27%
Jack Patrick Powell to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.557% probability@1.90PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
Under 1.530% probability@3.45BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
Under 1.530% probability@3.45BetssonEV+4%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Port Vale	X	2 · Crewe Alexandra
Betsafe	2.25	3.30	2.95
Betsson	2.25	3.30	2.95
Nordicbet	2.25	3.30	2.95
Pinnacle	2.24	3.55	3.11

Odds updated 29 Aug, 10:37

Odds movement

1+2 %

45 %40 %

2.19 → 2.24

X0 %

29 %24 %

3.56 → 3.55

2+2 %

33 %28 %

3.05 → 3.11

Over 2,5+2 %

52 %47 %

1.89 → 1.93

Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Port Vale 1Draw 1Crewe Alexandra 0

Goals: 2–1 (⌀ 1,5)

Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Port Vale

Crewe Alexandra

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Port Vale (1–3)

Crewe Alexandra (2–0)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Port Vale

Crewe Alexandra

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Port Vale

Crewe Alexandra

The teams in numbers

Performance	Port Vale	Crewe Alexandra
Points	1	6
xPoints	2.3	3.8
xG per match	1.1	1.5
xGA per match	1.1	0.77
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.05	0.43
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.8	0.03

Playing style	Port Vale	Crewe Alexandra
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.33
Field tilt	0.61	0.6
xT per match	0.92	1
xTA per match	0.4	0.49
Won balls, offensive half	25	18
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.44	0.33
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.54	0.27
Entries into the box per match	9	13
Entries into the box against	7	9
Pass completion %	0.66	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.65	0.69
Passes per match	269	309
Passes against per match	202	300
Switches of play per match	14.9	31.3
Long balls per match	32	31

Set pieces	Port Vale	Crewe Alexandra
xG from free kicks	0.05	0
Corners per match	5	8.6
Corners against per match	2	4.8
xG per corner	0.01	0.01
xGA per corner against	0	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.44
First touch, defensive corners %	0.75	0.4

Other	Port Vale	Crewe Alexandra
Throw-in control	0.8	0.71

The goalkeepers	Jackson William Smith (Port Vale)	Tom Booth (Crewe Alexandra)
Saves	4	9
Save %	57%	100%
xG prevented	18%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Port Vale

Fixtures, form & tips

Crewe Alexandra

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Port Vale vs Crewe Alexandra according to our model?

The model gives Port Vale a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Port Vale 43%, draw 28%, Crewe Alexandra 30%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.