01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Gillingham or draw (1X)71%
- Under 3.5 goals74%
EFL League TwoPriestfield Stadium, Gillingham19°3,5 mm29 km/h
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GillinghamCounter-attacks & crosses1–1
Northampton TownPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Gillingham (41%)
Gillingham – Northampton Town · EFL League Two
1 · Gillingham 41%X 28%30% Northampton Town · 2
41%
28%
30%
Analysis: Gillingham – Northampton Town
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
Northampton Town's approach in possession seems finely tuned, which is evident in their superior expected goals against (xGA) of 0.52 compared to Gillingham's 2.0 per match. This underlines a defensive solidity that could stifle the hosts' counter-attacking and crossing game. Yet, it's worth noting the model's lean towards the Gills, despite the visitors' stronger xPoints and xGA metrics.
Rain at Priestfield Stadium may level the playing field, likely suppressing the goal tally—which aligns with the model's 48% probability for over 2.5 goals. The most probable scenarios suggest a low-scoring affair, with a 1-1 draw slightly favored at 13%, followed by a narrow 1-0 win for Gillingham at 11%. Both teams to score hovers at 52%, hinting at a cautious exchange.
Gillingham's strategy thrives on counter opportunities and whipping in crosses. However, with an xG of just 1.0 per match, they face the challenge of breaking down a Northampton side that controls possession effectively. The visitors' ability to create chances within eight seconds of winning the ball, demonstrated by their 0.39 xG in such scenarios, could be pivotal if they catch Gillingham on the back foot.
While Northampton seem the more robust outfit statistically, the model sees value in backing the hosts at odds of 2.52 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The 4% edge indicates potential profit in a home win, despite the visitors' apparent strengths in xG metrics. In a tightly contested match, leveraging these favorable odds could be the wisest route for punters looking to capitalize on Gillingham's slight edge.
GillinghamForm LLWLD
League ranking xG #18xGA #24xT #12xP/match #20Points #21
Key players
- William Neil GoodwinFxG 0.55 · xT 0.00
- Ronan Aiden Connolly Shea Chapman HaleFxG 0.21 · xT -0.03
- James Robert BrophyLWxG 0.03 · xT 0.12
Northampton TownForm DL
League ranking xG #15xGA #1xT #19xP/match #6Points #18
Key players
- Lee EvansCDMxG 0.00 · xT -0.01
- Elliott Jordan MooreCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.05
- James Ian MaxwellLWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.09
Final score
1 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Gillingham 41% · Draw 28% · Northampton Town 30%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - GillinghamBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,46fair 9,29+2 %
MissMatchresultat - NorthamptonBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,61fair 15,78-39 %
MissMatch prediction: Gillingham – Northampton Town
Predicted score matrix
Northampton Town →
Gillingham →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.0%
0–18.1%
0–24.7%
0–31.8%
0–4+0.6%
1
1–010.8%
1–112.8%
1–26.9%
1–32.6%
1–4+0.9%
2
2–08.1%
2–19.0%
2–25.0%
2–31.9%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–03.9%
3–14.4%
3–22.5%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–02.0%
4+–12.2%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.2-08%
Expected goals
1,46–1,11
Both teams to score
52%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
119%
226%
322%
414%
5+12%
Under 2,552%
@1.80
Over 2,548%
@2.05
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Gillingham or draw (1X)71%
- Under 2.5 goals52%
- Garath James McCleary to score29%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score52%
- Over 2.5 goals48%
- Garath James McCleary to score29%
- Dean Graeme Campbell to be booked19%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Gillingham41% probability@2.72PinnacleEV+12%reference odds
- 1 · Gillingham41% probability@2.65BetsafeEV+9%reference odds
- 1 · Gillingham41% probability@2.65BetssonEV+9%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Gillingham | X | 2 · Northampton Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 9% 2.65 | 3.15 | 2.45 |
| Betsson | EV+ 9% 2.65 | 3.15 | 2.45 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 9% 2.65 | 3.15 | 2.45 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 12% 2.72 | 3.26 | 2.68 |
Odds updated 29 Aug, 11:37
Odds movement
1-4 %
37 %32 %
2.83 → 2.72
X-1 %
32 %27 %
3.28 → 3.26
2+9 %
38 %33 %
2.47 → 2.68
Over 2,5+3 %
50 %45 %
1.99 → 2.05
Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Gillingham
Northampton Town
Gillingham (0–3)
Northampton Town (0–1)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Gillingham
Northampton Town
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Gillingham
Northampton Town
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Gillingham | Northampton Town |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 1 | 1 |
| xPoints | 2.2 | 3.4 |
| xG per match | 1 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 2 | 0.52 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0 | 0.39 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| Playing style | Gillingham | Northampton Town |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.37 | 0.5 |
| xT per match | 0.89 | 0.63 |
| xTA per match | 0.88 | 0.47 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 29 | 33 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.58 | 0.7 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.57 | 0.63 |
| Passes per match | 184 | 335 |
| Passes against per match | 319 | 309 |
| Switches of play per match | 15.7 | 20.9 |
| Long balls per match | 30 | 28 |
| Set pieces | Gillingham | Northampton Town |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.17 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 3.9 | 8.1 |
| Corners against per match | 9.3 | 4.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.38 | 0.56 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.58 | 0.5 |
| Other | Gillingham | Northampton Town |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| The goalkeepers | Robbie Mckenzie (Gillingham) | Zachary Anton John Jeacock (Northampton Town) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 3 | 2 |
| Save % | 100% | 67% |
| xG prevented | 100% | 17% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Gillingham vs Northampton Town according to our model?
The model gives Gillingham a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Gillingham 41%, draw 28%, Northampton Town 30%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.