EFL League TwoNew York Stadium, Rotherham17°8,2 mm16 km/h

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    Rotherham UnitedRotherham UnitedPossession control
    2–1
    ChesterfieldChesterfieldPossession control
    The model's lean: 2 · Chesterfield (50%)

    Rotherham United – Chesterfield · EFL League Two

    1 · Rotherham United 26%X 23%50% Chesterfield · 2

    Analysis: Rotherham United – Chesterfield

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    Chesterfield embarks on this fixture against Rotherham United with the wind in their sails, a team that has demonstrated a sharp attacking edge in recent outings. Their xG of 1.9 per match eclipses Rotherham's 1.2, emphasizing a potent offensive machine that the hosts will struggle to contain. Despite both teams focusing on possession control, Chesterfield's execution in front of goal has been superior, supported by their marginally tighter defense with an xGA of 0.91 compared to Rotherham's 1.0.

    The model highlights Chesterfield as the favorite with a 50% win probability, and there’s good reason to trust this assessment. The most likely outcomes—1-1 and 0-1—both signal Chesterfield's ability to at least secure a point, if not all three. The visitors have managed to translate their superior xPoints of 4.1 into actual results more effectively than Rotherham, who falter with just 1 point at hand.

    Given the small head-to-head sample since 2023, the historical record should not weigh heavily on our expectations. More telling is Chesterfield's trajectory in the current season, reflected in their three points from matches so far. The expected goals tally reinforces the notion of a low-scoring contest, with a 41% probability for over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring a mere 46% chance.

    Chesterfield’s odds of 2.32 for an away win represent an enticing prospect for value hunters, especially highlighted by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model's 17% edge suggests a keen opportunity to back an away triumph. While a 0-1 scoreline seems plausible, the allure of Chesterfield at these odds is the sharper angle. Expect them to leverage their attacking efficiency and defensive stability to edge out a determined, but ultimately overmatched, Rotherham side.

    Rotherham UnitedRotherham United
    Form LD
    League ranking xG #13xGA #5xT #14xP/match #12Points #17
    Key players
    • Paul Philip MullinFxG 0.20 · xT 0.04
    • Ewan OtooLBxG 0.06 · xT 0.27
    • Denzel HallRBxG 0.27 · xT 0.14
    ChesterfieldChesterfield
    Form WLDLW
    League ranking xG #3xGA #3xT #18xP/match #2Points #10
    Key players
    • Lee BonisFxG 1.00 · xT -0.17
    • Liam MandevilleCMxG 0.00 · xT -0.02
    • George McEachranLWxG 0.05 · xT 0.05
    Final score
    2 – 1
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Rotherham United 26% · Draw 23% · Chesterfield 50%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - ChesterfieldBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 7,32fair 11,62-37 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - RotherhamBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 10,94fair 22,08-50 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Rotherham United – Chesterfield

    Predicted score matrix

    Chesterfield →
    Rotherham United →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–010.3%
    0–113.0%
    0–29.0%
    0–34.0%
    0–4+1.8%
    1
    1–09.2%
    1–113.3%
    1–28.7%
    1–33.9%
    1–4+1.7%
    2
    2–04.6%
    2–16.2%
    2–24.2%
    2–31.9%
    2–4+0.8%
    3
    3–01.5%
    3–12.0%
    3–21.3%
    3–30.6%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–00.4%
    4+–10.6%
    4+–20.4%
    4+–30.2%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.0-113%
    3. 3.0-010%
    4. 4.1-09%
    5. 5.0-29%
    Expected goals
    0,97–1,34
    Both teams to score
    46%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,3
    Under 2,559%
    @1.86EV+10%
    Over 2,541%
    @1.98

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Chesterfield to win50%
    • Under 3.5 goals80%

    Combined probability

    35%

    Fair odds

    2.89

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Chesterfield to win50%
    • Under 2.5 goals59%
    • Dilan Kumar Markanday to score22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score46%
    • Over 2.5 goals41%
    • Dilan Kumar Markanday to score22%
    • Joe James Powell to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Chesterfield50% probability@2.38PinnacleEV+20%reference odds
    • Under 1.532% probability@3.45BetsafeEV+12%reference odds
    • Under 1.532% probability@3.45BetssonEV+12%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Rotherham UnitedX2 · Chesterfield
    Betsafe3.253.30
    EV+ 7%
    2.12
    Betsson3.253.30
    EV+ 7%
    2.12
    Nordicbet3.253.30
    EV+ 7%
    2.12
    Pinnacle2.933.48
    EV+ 20%
    2.38

    Odds updated 29 Aug, 11:37

    Odds movement

    1-2 %
    35 %30 %

    2.99 → 2.93

    X-2 %
    29 %24 %

    3.54 → 3.48

    2+7 %
    44 %39 %

    2.23 → 2.38

    Over 2,5+2 %
    51 %46 %

    1.93 → 1.98

    Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Rotherham United
    Chesterfield
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Rotherham United (2–3)
    Chesterfield (1–1)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Rotherham United
    Ewan Otoo: 79 passningar, xT 0.5OtooDenzel Hall: 67 passningar, xT 0.28HallLenny Agbaire: 62 passningar, xT 0.06AgbaireSonny Aljofree: 61 passningar, xT 0.08AljofreeKian Alec Spence: 57 passningar, xT -0.02SpenceJili Buyabu: 41 passningar, xT 0.27BuyabuBrandon Ashley Cover: 36 passningar, xT 0.01CoverFábio André Tavares Desidério: 31 passningar, xT 0.25DesidérioJamie Ryan Jellis: 30 passningar, xT -0.02JellisTed Cann: 29 passningar, xT 0.09CannOssama Wassim Ashley: 24 passningar, xT 0.09Ashley
    Chesterfield
    Jack Benjamin Simpson: 101 passningar, xT 0.13SimpsonLewis Gordon: 97 passningar, xT 0.02GordonKyle Mcfadzean: 96 passningar, xT 0.19McfadzeanRemeao Andrew Hutton: 75 passningar, xT 0.45HuttonGeorge McEachran: 70 passningar, xT 0.1McEachranRyan Stirk: 70 passningar, xT 0.06StirkRyan Thomas William Boot: 56 passningar, xT 0.07BootJoshua Abdulai Koroma: 34 passningar, xT 0.35KoromaDilan Markanday: 32 passningar, xT 0.19MarkandayLiam Mandeville: 27 passningar, xT -0.03MandevilleAbdulmalik Timmy Owolabi-Belewu: 11 passningar, xT 0.02Owolabi-Belewu
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Rotherham United
    Ewan Otoo: 79 passningar, xT 0.5OtooDenzel Hall: 67 passningar, xT 0.28HallLenny Agbaire: 62 passningar, xT 0.06AgbaireSonny Aljofree: 61 passningar, xT 0.08AljofreeKian Alec Spence: 57 passningar, xT -0.02SpenceJili Buyabu: 41 passningar, xT 0.27BuyabuBrandon Ashley Cover: 36 passningar, xT 0.01CoverFábio André Tavares Desidério: 31 passningar, xT 0.25DesidérioJamie Ryan Jellis: 30 passningar, xT -0.02JellisTed Cann: 29 passningar, xT 0.09CannOssama Wassim Ashley: 24 passningar, xT 0.09Ashley
    Chesterfield
    Jack Benjamin Simpson: 101 passningar, xT 0.13SimpsonLewis Gordon: 97 passningar, xT 0.02GordonKyle Mcfadzean: 96 passningar, xT 0.19McfadzeanRemeao Andrew Hutton: 75 passningar, xT 0.45HuttonGeorge McEachran: 70 passningar, xT 0.1McEachranRyan Stirk: 70 passningar, xT 0.06StirkRyan Thomas William Boot: 56 passningar, xT 0.07BootJoshua Abdulai Koroma: 34 passningar, xT 0.35KoromaDilan Markanday: 32 passningar, xT 0.19MarkandayLiam Mandeville: 27 passningar, xT -0.03MandevilleAbdulmalik Timmy Owolabi-Belewu: 11 passningar, xT 0.02Owolabi-Belewu

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceRotherham UnitedChesterfield
    Points13
    xPoints2.94.1
    xG per match1.21.9
    xGA per match10.91
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.060.83
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.180.14
    Playing styleRotherham UnitedChesterfield
    Build-up efficiency0.350.32
    Field tilt0.520.55
    xT per match0.860.64
    xTA per match0.870.9
    Won balls, offensive half2526
    Pressing intensity0.220.21
    Pressing efficiency0.410.3
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.390.26
    Entries into the box per match913
    Entries into the box against910
    Pass completion %0.650.73
    Pass completion % under pressure0.630.71
    Passes per match287344
    Passes against per match283335
    Switches of play per match24.434.7
    Long balls per match3242
    Set piecesRotherham UnitedChesterfield
    xG from free kicks0.080.01
    Corners per match4.53
    Corners against per match73
    xG per corner0.020.06
    xGA per corner against0.040.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.220.33
    First touch, defensive corners %0.710.83
    OtherRotherham UnitedChesterfield
    Throw-in control0.690.71
    The goalkeepersLenny Agbaire (Rotherham United)Ryan Thomas William Boot (Chesterfield)
    Saves49
    Save %100%90%
    xG prevented100%98%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Rotherham United
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Chesterfield
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Rotherham United vs Chesterfield according to our model?

    The model gives Chesterfield a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rotherham United 26%, draw 23%, Chesterfield 50%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 41% and under at 59%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    ChesterfieldChesterfield
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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.