Oldham Athletic vs Swindon Town: Prediction & Odds (29 Aug 2026)

EFL League Two29 August 2026 16:00 CESTBoundary Park, Oldham16°5,1 mm11 km/h

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Oldham AthleticLow block & direct

3–0

Swindon TownPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Oldham Athletic (42%)Best value by the model: 2 · Swindon Town @ 3.90 (+14 %)

1 · Oldham Athletic 42%X 29%29% Swindon Town · 2

42%

29%

Analysis: Oldham Athletic – Swindon Town

Erik Lindberg · 27 August 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Oldham Athletic enters this matchup with a significant 42% win probability, drawing attention to their home advantage. Despite their poor head-to-head record against Swindon Town, the sample of two matches is too small to outweigh current form and expected goals. The hosts boast an expected goals advantage (1.41 to 1.24) and a higher xPoints tally (3.1 to 2.3), suggesting a slight edge over their visitors.

Swindon Town, while only managing to secure 4 points thus far, holds an intriguing betting angle. The odds for a Swindon victory are priced at 3.7 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, offering a noteworthy 8% value edge according to the model's 29% win probability for the visitors. This presents a rare opportunity for those inclined to take a calculated risk on the underdog.

The likelihood of both teams finding the net stands at 54%, while the over/under 2.5 goals remains perfectly balanced at 50%. The expected 2.8 mm of rain could play a part in tempering high-scoring expectations, but the model seems to have already considered this. A tightly contested 1-1 draw edges out as the most probable outcome at 13%, underlining the match’s potential for a defensive stalemate. The punters seeking value will find the away odds enticing, but the main narrative points to a controlled contest dominated by marginal advantages.

Oldham Athletic

Form LLWWL

League ranking xG #19xGA #16xT #24xP/match #9Points #14

Key players

Calum KavanaghCAMxG 0.90 · xT -0.03
Keenan Appiah-ForsonFxG 0.01 · xT -0.02
Favour FawunmiRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.01

Swindon Town

Form DLLDW

League ranking xG #23xGA #9xT #20xP/match #18Points #7

Key players

Aaron John DrinanFxG 0.10 · xT 0.00
Ollie ClarkeLWxG 0.46 · xT 0.01
Mitchell Reece ClarkRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.09

Final score

3 – 0

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Oldham Athletic 42% · Draw 29% · Swindon Town 29%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - SwindonBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 12,90fair 12,45+4 %

Miss

Matchresultat - OldhamBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 6,68fair 9,64-31 %

Miss

Match prediction: Oldham Athletic – Swindon Town

Predicted score matrix

Swindon Town →

Oldham Athletic →

0–07.4%

0–18.4%

0–25.4%

0–32.2%

0–4+0.9%

1–09.6%

1–112.7%

1–27.7%

1–33.2%

1–4+1.3%

2–07.0%

2–18.7%

2–25.4%

2–32.2%

2–4+0.9%

3–03.3%

3–14.1%

3–22.5%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.4%

4+–01.6%

4+–12.0%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-010%
3.2-19%
4.0-18%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,41–1,24

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+13%

Under 2,550%

@1.93

Over 2,550%

@1.89

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Oldham Athletic or draw (1X)67%
Under 3.5 goals72%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Oldham Athletic or draw (1X)67%
Under 2.5 goals50%
Karl Mike Fondop-Talum to score32%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Karl Mike Fondop-Talum to score32%
Thomas Andrew Nichols to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Swindon Town29% probability@3.90PinnacleEV+14%reference odds
2 · Swindon Town29% probability@3.70BetsafeEV+8%reference odds
2 · Swindon Town29% probability@3.70BetssonEV+8%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Oldham Athletic	X	2 · Swindon Town
Betsafe	1.88	3.40	EV+ 8% 3.70
Betsson	1.88	3.40	EV+ 8% 3.70
Nordicbet	1.88	3.40	EV+ 8% 3.70
Pinnacle	1.94	EV+ 2% 3.57	EV+ 14% 3.90

Odds updated 29 Aug, 11:37

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Oldham Athletic win since 23 August — the odds have shortened from 2.13 to 1.94 (−9%).

1-9 %

52 %42 %

2.13 → 1.94

X+10 %

33 %23 %

3.25 → 3.57

2+12 %

30 %20 %

3.47 → 3.90

Over 2,5-2 %

55 %45 %

1.93 → 1.89

Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Oldham Athletic 0Draw 0Swindon Town 2

Goals: 1–5 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Oldham Athletic

Swindon Town

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Oldham Athletic (3–2)

Swindon Town (2–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Oldham Athletic

Swindon Town

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Oldham Athletic

Swindon Town

The teams in numbers

Performance	Oldham Athletic	Swindon Town
Points	3	4
xPoints	3.1	2.3
xG per match	0.99	0.57
xGA per match	1.4	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.63	0.03
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.05	0.39

Playing style	Oldham Athletic	Swindon Town
Build-up efficiency	0.37	0.32
Field tilt	0.33	0.45
xT per match	0.32	0.59
xTA per match	1.5	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	26	26
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.37
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.34
Entries into the box per match	7	9
Entries into the box against	14	13
Pass completion %	0.63	0.63
Pass completion % under pressure	0.59	0.62
Passes per match	199	255
Passes against per match	365	329
Switches of play per match	15.4	20.9
Long balls per match	28	38

Set pieces	Oldham Athletic	Swindon Town
xG from free kicks	0.08	0
Corners per match	1.5	1.5
Corners against per match	7.2	7.7
xG per corner	0.03	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.33	0.67
First touch, defensive corners %	0.64	0.53

Other	Oldham Athletic	Swindon Town
Throw-in control	0.73	0.74

The goalkeepers	Mathew Anthony Hudson (Oldham Athletic)	Connor Ripley (Swindon Town)
Saves	6	8
Save %	86%	89%
xG prevented	94%	95%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Oldham Athletic

Fixtures, form & tips

Swindon Town

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Oldham Athletic vs Swindon Town according to our model?

The model gives Oldham Athletic a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Oldham Athletic 42%, draw 29%, Swindon Town 29%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.