Grimsby Town vs Fleetwood Town: Prediction & Odds (29 Aug 2026)

EFL League Two29 August 2026 16:00 CESTBlundell Park, Cleethorpes17°6,7 mm17 km/h

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Grimsby TownPossession control

2–2

Fleetwood TownLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Grimsby Town (48%)Best value by the model: 2 · Fleetwood Town @ 4.36 (+5 %)

1 · Grimsby Town 48%X 28%24% Fleetwood Town · 2

48%

28%

24%

Analysis: Grimsby Town – Fleetwood Town

Anna Karlsson · 27 August 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT contains an unsupported claim: the specific betting odds "2.10 with Bet365" are not part of the given facts and appear fabricated.

Corrected text:

Possession versus direct play will define the narrative when Grimsby Town hosts Fleetwood Town. The hosts, who thrive on controlling the ball, have a 48% chance of victory, pointing to a game likely dictated by their tempo. The visitors, meanwhile, approach with a defensive set-up, hoping to capitalize on quick transitions. With Grimsby having a history of wins against Fleetwood, they're favorites despite the small sample size of just four recent head-to-heads.

Grimsby's expected goals stand at 1.68 compared to Fleetwood's 0.94, illustrating a clear offensive edge. This aligns seamlessly with their average xG of 1.9 per match, suggesting they can create more quality opportunities than Fleetwood's 1.1. The model's most likely scorelines of 1-0 and 2-0 reflect the anticipated dominance of Grimsby's attack against a Fleetwood defense that, although solid, might not withstand the sustained pressure.

Weather conditions, with over four millimeters of rain expected, might suppress scoring, but this is already factored into the expected outcomes. Both teams to score is pegged at a 50% likelihood, yet with Grimsby's superior xG in quick transitions (0.45 vs. Fleetwood's 0.23), they have a knack for breaking through even in less-than-ideal conditions.

Fleetwood's unbeaten streak in their last six league matches is a point of resilience, yet the model still favors Grimsby Town. While Fleetwood will aim for disruption and quick breaks, Grimsby’s control and calculated play should see them edge a tight contest, likely ending 1-0. The over/under 2.5 goals sits finely balanced, but the lean is towards under given the defensive strategies and weather.

Grimsby Town

Form DLDWD

League ranking xG #4xGA #15xT #3xP/match #10Points #9

Key players

Jayden Deslandes SweeneyLBxG 0.10 · xT 0.23
Charles VernamLWxG 0.28 · xT 0.17
Harvey RodgersRWBxG 0.23 · xT 0.04

Fleetwood Town

Form DDDWD

League ranking xG #14xGA #13xT #9xP/match #15Points #8

Key players

Mark HelmLWxG 0.24 · xT 0.16
William James DaviesFxG 0.14 · xT -0.01
Lewis McCannLWxG 0.16 · xT 0.21

Final score

2 – 2

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Grimsby Town 48% · Draw 28% · Fleetwood Town 24%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - GrimsbyBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 5,94fair 7,53-21 %

Miss

Matchresultat - FleetwoodBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 12,26fair 23,75-48 %

Miss

Match prediction: Grimsby Town – Fleetwood Town

Predicted score matrix

Fleetwood Town →

Grimsby Town →

0–07.6%

0–16.5%

0–23.2%

0–31.0%

0–4+0.3%

1–011.9%

1–111.8%

1–25.4%

1–31.7%

1–4+0.5%

2–010.3%

2–19.7%

2–24.5%

2–31.4%

2–4+0.4%

3–05.8%

3–15.4%

3–22.5%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.2%

4+–03.5%

4+–13.3%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-012%
2.1-112%
3.2-010%
4.2-110%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,68–0,94

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

118%

225%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,551%

@1.98EV+2%

Over 2,549%

@1.86

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Grimsby Town to win48%
Under 3.5 goals73%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Grimsby Town to win48%
Under 2.5 goals51%
Daniel Antony Rose to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Daniel Antony Rose to score27%
Harrison Neal to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Fleetwood Town24% probability@4.36PinnacleEV+5%reference odds
Under 2.551% probability@1.98BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
Under 2.551% probability@1.98BetssonEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Grimsby Town	X	2 · Fleetwood Town
Betsafe	1.85	3.40	4.10
Betsson	1.85	3.40	4.10
Nordicbet	1.85	3.40	4.10
Pinnacle	1.83	EV+ 0% 3.62	EV+ 5% 4.36

Odds updated 29 Aug, 11:37

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 23 August — the odds have shortened from 1.98 to 1.86 (−6%).

10 %

54 %49 %

1.84 → 1.83

X+5 %

29 %24 %

3.45 → 3.62

2+2 %

24 %19 %

4.27 → 4.36

Over 2,5-6 %

52 %47 %

1.98 → 1.86

Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Grimsby Town 3Draw 0Fleetwood Town 1

Goals: 4–2 (⌀ 1,5)

Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.

Key facts

Fleetwood Town are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Grimsby Town

Fleetwood Town

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Grimsby Town (1–0)

Fleetwood Town (1–0)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Grimsby Town

Fleetwood Town

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Grimsby Town

Fleetwood Town

The teams in numbers

Performance	Grimsby Town	Fleetwood Town
Points	4	4
xPoints	3.1	2.5
xG per match	1.9	1.1
xGA per match	1.4	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.45	0.23
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.21	0.28

Playing style	Grimsby Town	Fleetwood Town
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.33
Field tilt	0.62	0.5
xT per match	1.3	1
xTA per match	1	0.92
Won balls, offensive half	46	31
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.37	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.35	0.37
Entries into the box per match	21	12
Entries into the box against	9	10
Pass completion %	0.68	0.65
Pass completion % under pressure	0.6	0.67
Passes per match	299	261
Passes against per match	293	307
Switches of play per match	21.5	16.9
Long balls per match	38	34

Set pieces	Grimsby Town	Fleetwood Town
xG from free kicks	0.07	0.03
Corners per match	6.8	5.5
Corners against per match	5.8	3.5
xG per corner	0.05	0
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.38	0.27
First touch, defensive corners %	0.64	0.57

Other	Grimsby Town	Fleetwood Town
Throw-in control	0.71	0.7

The goalkeepers	Christy James Pym (Grimsby Town)	Jay Lynch (Fleetwood Town)
Saves	4	6
Save %	100%	100%
xG prevented	100%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Grimsby Town

Fixtures, form & tips

Fleetwood Town

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Grimsby Town vs Fleetwood Town according to our model?

The model gives Grimsby Town a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Grimsby Town 48%, draw 28%, Fleetwood Town 24%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.