01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Port Vale or draw (X2)72%
- Under 3.5 goals78%
EFL League TwoPriestfield Stadium, Gillingham13°2,7 mm14 km/h
Läs på svenska
GillinghamCounter-attacks & crosses1–1
Port ValeLow block & directThe model's lean: 2 · Port Vale (41%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.35 (+16 %)
Gillingham vs Port Vale · EFL League Two
1 · Gillingham 24%X 35%41% Port Vale · 2
24%
35%
41%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Gillingham vs Port Vale (EFL League Two, Tuesday, 20 October 2026): Gillingham win 24%, draw 35%, Port Vale win 41%. Expected goals (xG): Gillingham 1.03, Port Vale 1.34. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%. Double chance: Gillingham or draw 59%, Port Vale or draw 76%. Prediction updated Monday, 12 October 2026.
Bet on this match
NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links
Analysis: Gillingham – Port Vale
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
Two past meetings and two wins for Gillingham — on paper, this might suggest a psychological edge for the hosts against Port Vale. However, the sample is too small to override the complexity of the current dynamics. The model forecasts favour Port Vale with a 41% chance of winning, while Gillingham's probability lags behind at 24%. These numbers suggest that the visitors have a slight upper hand, despite recent history.
The playing styles of these teams set up a battle of contrasting tactics. Gillingham's counter-attacking and crossing strategy will meet Port Vale's low block and direct approach. Tactically, this puts pressure on the hosts to be precise and clinical when opportunities arise. Meanwhile, the visitors will likely focus on maintaining their defensive solidity, where they excel with an xGA of just 0.94 per match compared to Gillingham's 1.4. In a setting where defensive organization might reign supreme, the likelihood of a low-scoring encounter looms large.
Expected goals also paint an intriguing picture. Both sides are expected to stay around the 1.1 mark, with Port Vale slightly edging out Gillingham at 1.34 to 1.03. The forecasted scorelines, like the 1-1 draw at 13% and 0-1 win for Port Vale at 12%, underscore the cautious nature of this matchup, further diluted by the expected rain that could suppress goal-scoring opportunities.
From a betting perspective, the draw emerges as a sharp angle, especially given its overlay in the market. With a 35% probability against offered odds of 3.3 (LeoVegas) or 3.2 (Betsafe and Nordicbet), the draw stands out as the value bet. A 1-1 stalemate looks promising, aligning with both the mathematical model and the tactical narrative of this clash.
GillinghamForm WLDWL
League ranking xG #20xGA #15xT #19xP/match #14Points #6
Key players
- Omar Jerome BecklesCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.03
- James Robert BrophyLWxG 0.09 · xT 0.08
- Ronan Aiden Connolly Shea Chapman HaleLWxG 0.26 · xT 0.00
Port ValeForm LWLWW
League ranking xG #18xGA #1xT #13xP/match #9Points #21
Key players
- Cameron HumphreysCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.05
- Jordan Lawrence GabrielRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.12
- Kyle Michael DempseyCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.05
Final score
1 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Gillingham 24% · Draw 35% · Port Vale 41%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Port ValeBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,34fair 11,37-18 %
MissMatchresultat - GillinghamBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 13,46fair 18,87-29 %
MissMatch prediction: Gillingham – Port Vale
Predicted score matrix
Port Vale →
Gillingham →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–09.7%
0–112.1%
0–28.4%
0–33.7%
0–4+1.7%
1
1–09.2%
1–113.3%
1–28.6%
1–33.9%
1–4+1.7%
2
2–05.0%
2–16.7%
2–24.5%
2–32.0%
2–4+0.9%
3
3–01.7%
3–12.3%
3–21.5%
3–30.7%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–00.6%
4+–10.7%
4+–20.5%
4+–30.2%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-112%
- 3.0-010%
- 4.1-09%
- 5.1-29%
Expected goals
1,03–1,34
Both teams to score
48%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,4010%
121%
227%
321%
412%
5+9%
Under 2,558%
@1.69
Over 2,542%
@2.20
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Port Vale or draw (X2)72%
- Under 2.5 goals58%
- Benjamin Peter Waine to score19%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score48%
- Over 2.5 goals42%
- Benjamin Peter Waine to score19%
- Kyle Michael Dempsey to be booked18%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw35% probability@3.35PinnacleEV+16%reference odds
- X · Draw35% probability@3.15BetsafeEV+9%reference odds
- X · Draw35% probability@3.15LeoVegasEV+9%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Gillingham | X | 2 · Port Vale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 3.20 | EV+ 9% 3.15 | 2.22 |
| LeoVegas | 3.15 | EV+ 9% 3.15 | 2.25 |
| Nordicbet | 3.20 | EV+ 9% 3.15 | 2.22 |
| Pinnacle | 3.25 | EV+ 16% 3.35 | 2.26 |
Odds updated 20 Oct, 13:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 18 October — the odds have shortened from 1.78 to 1.69 (−5%).
1+14 %
34 %29 %
2.86 → 3.25
X0 %
31 %26 %
3.35 → 3.35
2-6 %
43 %38 %
2.41 → 2.26
Over 2,5+9 %
48 %43 %
2.02 → 2.20
Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 18/10/2026 → 20/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesGillingham 2Draw 0Port Vale 0
Goals: 2–0 (⌀ 1)
Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Gillingham
Port Vale
Gillingham (16–13)
Port Vale (5–9)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Gillingham
Port Vale
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Gillingham
Port Vale
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Gillingham | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 16 | 11 |
| xPoints | 14.6 | 12.7 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 0.94 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| Playing style | Gillingham | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.39 | 0.48 |
| xT per match | 0.69 | 0.87 |
| xTA per match | 0.92 | 0.5 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| Entries into the box per match | 7 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.64 | 0.63 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.58 | 0.61 |
| Passes per match | 247 | 246 |
| Passes against per match | 315 | 275 |
| Switches of play per match | 18.6 | 18.4 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 28 |
| Set pieces | Gillingham | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| Corners per match | 3.2 | 4.6 |
| Corners against per match | 5.6 | 5.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.4 | 0.41 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.61 | 0.7 |
| Other | Gillingham | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| The goalkeepers | Oliver Lennon George Wright (Gillingham) | Jackson William Smith (Port Vale) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 31 | 10 |
| Save % | 82% | 59% |
| xG prevented | 75% | 36% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Exeter City – Crewe Alexandra20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Barnet – Swindon Town20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Rochdale – Grimsby Town20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Chesterfield – Colchester United20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Rotherham United – Newport County20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Northampton Town – Tranmere Rovers20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Crawley Town – Shrewsbury Town20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Cheltenham Town – Fleetwood Town20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Bristol Rovers – Salford City20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Gillingham vs Port Vale according to our model?
The model gives Port Vale a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Gillingham 24%, draw 35%, Port Vale 41%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Gillingham vs Port Vale?
The model expects 1.03 goals (xG) for Gillingham and 1.34 for Port Vale, 2.37 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Gillingham or draw (1X) 59%, Port Vale or draw (X2) 76% and no draw (12) 65%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen
Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.
Se ComeOns villkor
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.
Se Hajpers villkor
Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.