Rochdale vs Gillingham: Prediction & Odds (5 Sept 2026)

EFL League Two5 September 2026 16:00 CESTSpotland, Rochdale14°0,2 mm25 km/h

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RochdalePossession control

1–4

GillinghamLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Rochdale (45%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.89 (+8 %)

1 · Rochdale 45%X 28%26% Gillingham · 2

45%

28%

26%

Analysis: Rochdale – Gillingham

Marcus Johansson · 4 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT:

A striking 45% win probability for Rochdale suggests a slight edge for the hosts, yet the numbers hint at a more nuanced picture. Rochdale's strategy of possession control contrasts sharply with Gillingham's low defensive block and preference for direct play. Despite a modest expected goals statistic of 1.38 for the home team, their defensive acumen, with an expected goals against of 1.4, might just hold the key.

Gillingham, with a superior xPoints of 4.6 compared to Rochdale's 3.3, appear better on paper, yet their approach tends to suppress goal-scoring opportunities. An xG of 0.89 per match against Rochdale's 0.71 favors them slightly, but the visitors' defensive vulnerabilities could tilt the balance. The key may lie in the rapid transition game, where Gillingham's xG within eight seconds of winning the ball is three times that of the hosts.

The model leans towards a low-scoring affair, with the 1-1 draw as the most probable outcome at 13%. An under 2.5 goals scenario is credible, given the 43% probability for over. Yet, a tight 1-0 win for Rochdale also lurks.

Rochdale

Form LLLW

League ranking xG #24xGA #15xT #21xP/match #24Points #19

Key players

Daniel Thomas MossRWxG 0.22 · xT 0.20
Luke James HannantFxG 0.21 · xT -0.02
Ryan Henry EastCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.17

Gillingham

Form WLDDD

League ranking xG #21xGA #18xT #13xP/match #17Points #21

Key players

Ronan Aiden Connolly Shea Chapman HaleFxG 0.25 · xT -0.07
James Robert BrophyFxG 0.04 · xT 0.06
William Neil GoodwinFxG 0.40 · xT 0.00

Final score

1 – 4

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Rochdale 45% · Draw 28% · Gillingham 26%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - RochdaleBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 7,92fair 10,72-26 %

Miss

Matchresultat - GillinghamBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 13,62fair 19,29-29 %

Hit

Match prediction: Rochdale – Gillingham

Predicted score matrix

Gillingham →

Rochdale →

0–09.4%

0–18.9%

0–24.7%

0–31.6%

0–4+0.5%

1–012.1%

1–113.1%

1–26.5%

1–32.2%

1–4+0.7%

2–08.6%

2–18.8%

2–24.5%

2–31.5%

2–4+0.5%

3–04.0%

3–14.1%

3–22.1%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–01.9%

4+–11.9%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-012%
3.0-09%
4.0-19%
5.2-19%

Expected goals

1,38–1,02

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

121%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,557%

@1.89EV+2%

Over 2,543%

@2.08

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Rochdale to win45%
Under 3.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Rochdale to win45%
Under 2.5 goals57%
Dajaune Anthony Brown to score21%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Dajaune Anthony Brown to score21%
Armani George Little to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.557% probability@1.89PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
Under 1.530% probability@3.40Bet365EV+3%reference odds
Under 2.557% probability@1.80Bet365EV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Rochdale	X	2 · Gillingham
Bet365	2.00	3.30	3.50
Betfair Exchange	2.12	2.94	3.05
Betsafe	2.08	3.30	3.45
Betsson	2.08	3.30	3.45
Nordicbet	2.08	3.30	3.45
Pinnacle	2.10	EV+ 1% 3.56	3.42

Odds updated 5 Sept, 10:32

Odds movement

1-1 %

47 %42 %

2.13 → 2.10

X+1 %

30 %25 %

3.52 → 3.56

2+7 %

31 %26 %

3.20 → 3.42

Over 2,5-2 %

49 %44 %

1.99 → 1.94

Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 02/09/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Rochdale

Gillingham

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Rochdale (4–6)

Gillingham (2–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Rochdale

Gillingham

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Rochdale

Gillingham

The teams in numbers

Performance	Rochdale	Gillingham
Points	3	3
xPoints	3.3	4.6
xG per match	0.71	0.89
xGA per match	1.4	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.02	0.06
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.11	0.21

Playing style	Rochdale	Gillingham
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.33
Field tilt	0.48	0.35
xT per match	0.64	0.82
xTA per match	0.89	0.73
Won balls, offensive half	16	29
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.31
Entries into the box per match	7	9
Entries into the box against	14	15
Pass completion %	0.77	0.63
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.57
Passes per match	386	227
Passes against per match	241	339
Switches of play per match	23.1	14.2
Long balls per match	32	30

Set pieces	Rochdale	Gillingham
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.12
Corners per match	3.8	3.5
Corners against per match	5.1	7.7
xG per corner	0.02	0
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.2	0.29
First touch, defensive corners %	0.7	0.63

Other	Rochdale	Gillingham
Throw-in control	0.76	0.67

The goalkeepers	Nils Ramming (Rochdale)	Oliver Lennon George Wright (Gillingham)
Saves	12	8
Save %	67%	80%
xG prevented	37%	74%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Rochdale

Fixtures, form & tips

Gillingham

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Rochdale vs Gillingham according to our model?

The model gives Rochdale a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rochdale 45%, draw 28%, Gillingham 26%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.