Shrewsbury Town vs Salford City: Prediction & Odds (29 Aug 2026)

EFL League Two29 August 2026 16:00 CESTNew Meadow, Shrewsbury16°10,6 mm15 km/h

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Shrewsbury TownCounter-attacks & crosses

1–0

Salford CityCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 2 · Salford City (45%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.81 (+9 %)

1 · Shrewsbury Town 28%X 27%45% Salford City · 2

28%

27%

45%

Analysis: Shrewsbury Town – Salford City

Anna Karlsson · 27 August 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT:

A tight contest is on the cards as Shrewsbury Town face Salford City, both reeling from three consecutive losses. Despite both teams being in a slump, the visitors come into the match as slight favourites with a 45% chance of winning, compared to the hosts' 28%. The most likely outcomes range from a 1-1 draw to a narrow 0-1 Salford win. The expected goals model also leans towards a low-scoring showdown, predicting 1.07 for Shrewsbury and 1.19 for Salford.

Both teams are known for their counter-attacking play and reliance on crosses, so expect a tactical battle rather than a free-flowing spectacle. The impending rain, 6.6 mm forecasted, might further suppress the goal count, already expected to stay under 2.5 at just a 39% probability. Interestingly, both teams are struggling in a similar fashion, which could lead to a cagey encounter with few clear-cut chances.

Despite the small head-to-head sample since 2023, Shrewsbury have shown some resilience against Salford, having won one and lost one. However, the hosts have a clear edge in underlying metrics such as xPoints and xG per match, indicating they may perform better than their recent form suggests. Their underlying numbers also point to a tighter defence, with a lower expected goals against per match than Salford, whose defensive frailty stands out by comparison.

The market offers an intriguing opportunity: Shrewsbury are valued at odds of 3.95 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, which gives backers an impressive 11% edge according to the model. While Salford are the slight favourites, this value bet on the home side might just tempt those looking to exploit market inefficiencies.

Shrewsbury Town

Form DDLLL

League ranking xG #10xGA #14xT #6xP/match #14Points #23

Key players

Tom SangRWxG 0.00 · xT 0.22
Kevin BerkoeLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.14
Luca Anthony HooleCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.07

Salford City

Form WDLLL

League ranking xG #21xGA #23xT #21xP/match #23Points #22

Key players

Adebola OluwoCBxG 0.20 · xT 0.06
Oliver Anthony TurtonRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.14
Joe James PowellCAMxG 0.05 · xT 0.09

Final score

1 – 0

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Shrewsbury Town 28% · Draw 27% · Salford City 45%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - ShrewsburyBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 13,88fair 17,84-22 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Salford City FCBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 7,08fair 14,40-51 %

Miss

Match prediction: Shrewsbury Town – Salford City

Predicted score matrix

Salford City →

Shrewsbury Town →

0–010.8%

0–112.0%

0–27.4%

0–32.9%

0–4+1.1%

1–010.7%

1–113.7%

1–27.9%

1–33.2%

1–4+1.2%

2–05.9%

2–17.1%

2–24.2%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.7%

3–02.1%

3–12.5%

3–21.5%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.2%

4+–00.7%

4+–10.9%

4+–20.5%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.0-112%
3.0-011%
4.1-011%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,07–1,19

Both teams to score

46%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

011%

123%

227%

320%

411%

5+8%

Under 2,561%

@1.81EV+4%

Over 2,539%

@2.04

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Salford City or draw (X2)68%
Under 3.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Salford City or draw (X2)68%
Under 2.5 goals61%
Dominic Daniel Udoh to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score46%
Over 2.5 goals39%
Dominic Daniel Udoh to score26%
Tommy Vincent McDermott to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.561% probability@1.81PinnacleEV+9%reference odds
Under 1.534% probability@3.15BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
Under 1.534% probability@3.15BetssonEV+6%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Shrewsbury Town	X	2 · Salford City
Betsafe	3.45	3.20	2.02
Betsson	3.45	3.20	2.02
Nordicbet	3.45	3.20	2.02
Pinnacle	3.51	3.56	2.07

Odds updated 29 Aug, 09:36

Odds movement

1+2 %

30 %25 %

3.43 → 3.51

X0 %

29 %24 %

3.55 → 3.56

2+2 %

49 %44 %

2.03 → 2.07

Over 2,5+1 %

50 %45 %

2.01 → 2.04

Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Shrewsbury Town 1Draw 0Salford City 1

Goals: 3–4 (⌀ 3,5)

Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.

Key facts

Shrewsbury Town have lost 3 in a row.
Salford City have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Shrewsbury Town

Salford City

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Shrewsbury Town (1–5)

Salford City (1–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Shrewsbury Town

Salford City

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Shrewsbury Town

Salford City

The teams in numbers

Performance	Shrewsbury Town	Salford City
Points	0	0
xPoints	2.5	0.8
xG per match	1.5	0.76
xGA per match	1.3	1.9
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.02	0.08
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.26	1

Playing style	Shrewsbury Town	Salford City
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.37
Field tilt	0.5	0.53
xT per match	1.2	0.56
xTA per match	0.84	0.49
Won balls, offensive half	31	22
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.26
Pressing efficiency	0.42	0.42
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.44	0.43
Entries into the box per match	14	11
Entries into the box against	9	14
Pass completion %	0.57	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.52	0.67
Passes per match	206	361
Passes against per match	205	196
Switches of play per match	17.4	33.2
Long balls per match	30	44

Set pieces	Shrewsbury Town	Salford City
xG from free kicks	0.34	0.19
Corners per match	6	5
Corners against per match	6	3.5
xG per corner	0.02	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	0.57

Other	Shrewsbury Town	Salford City
Throw-in control	0.79	0.77

The goalkeepers	William Sam Douglas Harry Boyle (Shrewsbury Town)	William James Norris (Salford City)
Saves	3	6
Save %	100%	60%
xG prevented	100%	28%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Shrewsbury Town

Fixtures, form & tips

Salford City

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Shrewsbury Town vs Salford City according to our model?

The model gives Salford City a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Shrewsbury Town 28%, draw 27%, Salford City 45%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 39% and under at 61%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.