01 · 2 legs
Safe
- York City to win61%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
EFL League TwoLNER Community Stadium, York12°9,8 mm17 km/h
Läs på svenska
York CityPossession control1–1
Accrington StanleyLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · York City (61%)
York City vs Accrington Stanley · EFL League Two
1 · York City 61%X 21%18% Accrington Stanley · 2
61%
21%
18%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for York City vs Accrington Stanley (EFL League Two, Tuesday, 20 October 2026): York City win 61%, draw 21%, Accrington Stanley win 18%. Expected goals (xG): York City 1.96, Accrington Stanley 0.97. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 54%. Double chance: York City or draw 82%, Accrington Stanley or draw 39%. Prediction updated Monday, 12 October 2026.
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Analysis: York City – Accrington Stanley
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
FAKTA ne potvrđuje tvrdnju o međusobnim susretima. Ispravljen tekst:
York City and Accrington Stanley's head-to-head history isn't detailed here, so this preview focuses on current league form and underlying statistics, which could play a larger role in tomorrow's outcome.
The Minstermen are slight favorites, with the model giving them a 61% chance of victory. Their style of possession football and superior expected goals numbers per match (1.7 to 1.4) point towards a controlled approach. However, Accrington are unbeaten in their last five league matches, showing resilience despite their defensive vulnerabilities. York's tighter expected goals against (xGA) figures—1.2 to Stanley's 1.3—also add weight to their case for a home win, despite Accrington's ability to frustrate opponents with direct play.
Weather conditions, particularly the forecasted 10.2 mm of rain, should suppress the goal count slightly, a factor already accounted for in the model’s numbers. Still, the probabilities suggest a 56% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 54% likelihood that both teams will score. The most likely scorelines reflect a balance between attack and defense: 1-0, 2-0, or 1-1, each at 10%.
The sharpest angle here lies with York City claiming all three points at home. LeoVegas offers odds of 1.68, presenting a 2% edge over the model's assessment, making it a value bet. Also worth considering, albeit with slightly less value, is the under 3.5 goals market at 1.52 with LeoVegas. The model rates this at 66%, providing a safer option for those wary of unpredictable elements.
York CityForm WLWDD
League ranking xG #3xGA #7xT #2xP/match #11Points #4
Key players
- Alexander John HuntCAMxG 0.09 · xT 0.12
- Alexander Lewis NewbyFxG 0.43 · xT 0.10
- Mark Stephen KitchingCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.14
Accrington StanleyForm DDWDW
League ranking xG #7xGA #14xT #8xP/match #3Points #14
Key players
- Donald LoveCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.23
- Charlie CatonFxG 0.56 · xT 0.03
- Stefan Edouard MolsFxG 0.24 · xT 0.07
Final score
1 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: York City 61% · Draw 21% · Accrington Stanley 18%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - YorkBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,10fair 5,60-9 %
MissMatchresultat - AccringtonBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 13,87fair 22,47-38 %
MissMatch prediction: York City – Accrington Stanley
Predicted score matrix
Accrington Stanley →
York City →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.6%
0–14.9%
0–22.5%
0–30.8%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–010.1%
1–110.5%
1–25.0%
1–31.6%
1–4+0.5%
2
2–010.2%
2–110.0%
2–24.8%
2–31.6%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–06.7%
3–16.5%
3–23.2%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–05.1%
4+–15.0%
4+–22.4%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-110%
- 2.2-010%
- 3.1-010%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.3-07%
Expected goals
1,96–0,97
Both teams to score
54%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,544%
@2.17
Over 2,556%
@1.71
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- York City to win61%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Olliver Robert Pearce to score31%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score54%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Olliver Robert Pearce to score31%
- Conor James Grant to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · York City61% probability@1.75LeoVegasEV+6%reference odds
- 1 · York City61% probability@1.71PinnacleEV+4%reference odds
- 1 · York City61% probability@1.70BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · York City | X | 2 · Accrington Stanley |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 3% 1.70 | 3.85 | 4.40 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 6% 1.75 | 3.75 | 4.20 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 3% 1.70 | 3.85 | 4.40 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 4% 1.71 | 4.02 | 4.54 |
Odds updated 20 Oct, 12:36
Odds movement
1+3 %
58 %53 %
1.67 → 1.71
X0 %
26 %21 %
4.04 → 4.02
2+2 %
23 %18 %
4.44 → 4.54
Over 2,5+6 %
60 %55 %
1.61 → 1.71
Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 18/10/2026 → 20/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Accrington Stanley are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
York City
Accrington Stanley
York City (18–12)
Accrington Stanley (16–15)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
York City
Accrington Stanley
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
York City
Accrington Stanley
The teams in numbers
| Performance | York City | Accrington Stanley |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 16 | 14 |
| xPoints | 13.9 | 17.8 |
| xG per match | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.2 | 0.45 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| Playing style | York City | Accrington Stanley |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.62 | 0.49 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 0.98 |
| xTA per match | 0.73 | 0.83 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 29 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.6 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.73 | 0.59 |
| Passes per match | 461 | 221 |
| Passes against per match | 240 | 262 |
| Switches of play per match | 24.3 | 19 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 35 |
| Set pieces | York City | Accrington Stanley |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| Corners per match | 5.8 | 5.4 |
| Corners against per match | 4.5 | 4.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.53 | 0.76 |
| Other | York City | Accrington Stanley |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.8 | 0.69 |
| The goalkeepers | Alfie Shane McNally (York City) | Louie Moulden (Accrington Stanley) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 23 | 29 |
| Save % | 66% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 52% | 51% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins York City vs Accrington Stanley according to our model?
The model gives York City a 61% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: York City 61%, draw 21%, Accrington Stanley 18%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in York City vs Accrington Stanley?
The model expects 1.96 goals (xG) for York City and 0.97 for Accrington Stanley, 2.93 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
York City or draw (1X) 82%, Accrington Stanley or draw (X2) 39% and no draw (12) 79%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.