Arsenal vs Everton Prediction: Home win 64% (24 Oct 2026)

Premier League24 October 2026Emirates Stadium, London11°15,3 mm31 km/h

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ArsenalPossession & high press

EvertonBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Arsenal (64%)Best value by the model: 2 · Everton @ 8.00 (+23 %)

1 · Arsenal 64%X 20%15% Everton · 2

64%

20%

15%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Arsenal vs Everton (Premier League, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Arsenal win 64%, draw 20%, Everton win 15%. Expected goals (xG): Arsenal 1.95, Everton 0.99. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 54%. Double chance: Arsenal or draw 85%, Everton or draw 36%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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Analysis: Arsenal – Everton

Marcus Johansson · 19 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Arsenal's dominance at home is underscored by their 73% win rate across 79 matches, a formidable stat that casts a shadow over Everton's visit. Despite the Gunners' historical superiority in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 8 encounters, the model gives them a 64% chance of victory. Their expected goals (xG) at 1.95 against Everton's 0.99 further highlight Arsenal's attacking edge, making a 2-0 or 1-0 outcome plausible.

Everton, though typically physical and balanced, face an uphill battle against a team that excels in possession and high pressing. The visitors' xG of 1.4 per match is decent but not enough to unsettle Arsenal's defense, which allows just 0.83 xGA. With both teams scoring 54% of the time, there's a fair chance Everton might find the net, but the weather, with 8.5 mm of rain, may suppress goals despite the model's 56% lean towards over 2.5 goals.

For those looking for an edge, Everton's victory at odds 8.7 with Betsafe and Nordicbet offers a notable 34% value despite their slim 15% probability. While this is a longshot, the value there is undeniable and could tempt the risk-takers.

Arsenal

Form WWLWW

League ranking xG #6xGA #1xT #7xP/match #3Points #2

Key players

Bukayo SakaRWxG 0.50 · xT 0.06
Declan RiceCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.14
Martin ØdegaardCMxG 0.28 · xT 0.26

Everton

Form DDWDL

League ranking xG #12xGA #8xT #9xP/match #10Points #8

Key players

Iliman NdiayeCAMxG 0.21 · xT 0.08
James TarkowskiCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.05
Kiernan Dewsbury HallCAMxG 0.20 · xT 0.14

Match prediction: Arsenal – Everton

Predicted score matrix

Everton →

Arsenal →

0–05.6%

0–14.9%

0–22.6%

0–30.9%

0–4+0.3%

1–010.0%

1–110.5%

1–25.1%

1–31.7%

1–4+0.5%

2–010.0%

2–110.0%

2–24.9%

2–31.6%

2–4+0.5%

3–06.5%

3–16.5%

3–23.2%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.3%

4+–05.0%

4+–14.9%

4+–22.4%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-010%
3.1-010%
4.2-110%
5.3-07%

Expected goals

1,95–0,99

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+18%

Under 2,544%

@1.99

Over 2,556%

@1.84EV+4%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Arsenal to win64%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Arsenal to win64%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Bukayo Saka to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Bukayo Saka to score27%
James Alan Tarkowski to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Everton15% probability@8.00BetsafeEV+23%reference odds
2 · Everton15% probability@8.00NordicbetEV+23%reference odds
2 · Everton15% probability@7.50LeoVegasEV+16%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Arsenal	X	2 · Everton
Betsafe	1.43	4.35	EV+ 23% 8.00
LeoVegas	1.42	4.60	EV+ 16% 7.50
Nordicbet	1.43	4.35	EV+ 23% 8.00

Odds updated 22 Oct, 07:37

Odds movement

1+4 %

70 %65 %

1.36 → 1.42

X-6 %

22 %17 %

4.90 → 4.60

2-6 %

15 %10 %

8.00 → 7.50

Over 2,5+3 %

55 %50 %

1.75 → 1.80

LeoVegas · 33 recorded price levels · 16/10/2026 → 22/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

8 matches

Arsenal 5Draw 2Everton 1

Goals: 11–3 (⌀ 1,8)

Head-to-head based on Premier League data since 2022.

Key facts

Arsenal FC dominate this fixture historically: 5 wins to 1 in 8 meetings.
Arsenal FC win 73% of their home matches all-time (79 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Arsenal

Everton

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Arsenal (11–5)

Everton (8–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Arsenal

Everton

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Arsenal

Everton

The teams in numbers

Performance	Arsenal	Everton
Points	18	10
xPoints	11.5	10.1
xG per match	1.7	1.4
xGA per match	0.83	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.24	0.28
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.11	0.24

Playing style	Arsenal	Everton
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.31
Field tilt	0.72	0.5
xT per match	1.1	0.99
xTA per match	0.56	0.97
Won balls, offensive half	25	26
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.24
Entries into the box per match	18	13
Entries into the box against	10	11
Pass completion %	0.81	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.78	0.75
Passes per match	456	365
Passes against per match	255	413
Switches of play per match	23.6	23.6
Long balls per match	25	28

Set pieces	Arsenal	Everton
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.03
Corners per match	4.7	5.1
Corners against per match	4	5.1
xG per corner	0.04	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.07
First touch, offensive corners %	0.52	0.28
First touch, defensive corners %	0.82	0.67

Other	Arsenal	Everton
Throw-in control	0.77	0.68

The goalkeepers	David Raya (Arsenal)	Jordan Pickford (Everton)
Saves	16	23
Save %	76%	77%
xG prevented	81%	71%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Arsenal

Fixtures, form & tips

Everton

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Arsenal vs Everton according to our model?

The model gives Arsenal a 64% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Arsenal 64%, draw 20%, Everton 15%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Arsenal vs Everton?

The model expects 1.95 goals (xG) for Arsenal and 0.99 for Everton, 2.94 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Arsenal or draw (1X) 85%, Everton or draw (X2) 36% and no draw (12) 80%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.