Premier LeagueSelhurst Park, London11°0,1 mm28 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    Crystal PalaceCrystal PalaceCounter-attacks & crosses
    vs
    Newcastle UnitedNewcastle UnitedBalanced & physical
    The model's lean: 1 · Crystal Palace (36%)Soft drawBest value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.36 (+9 %)

    Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United · Premier League

    1 · Crystal Palace 36%X 30%34% Newcastle United · 2

    Prediction summary

    BetBuilders AI model prediction for Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United (Premier League, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Crystal Palace win 36%, draw 30%, Newcastle United win 34%. Expected goals (xG): Crystal Palace 1.58, Newcastle United 1.26. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%. Double chance: Crystal Palace or draw 66%, Newcastle United or draw 64%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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    Analysis: Crystal Palace – Newcastle United

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    A finely poised encounter awaits as Crystal Palace holds a slight model advantage despite Newcastle United's marginal edge in recent performances. The hosts stand at 36% to clinch the win, slightly higher than the visitors' 34%, while the draw sits at 30%. With the most probable outcome being a 1-1 stalemate, appearing 12% of the time in simulations, the numbers suggest a closely contested affair.

    Palace's expected goals tally of 1.58 surpasses Newcastle's 1.26, hinting at an edge in creating scoring opportunities. However, Newcastle's slight supremacy in xPoints (6.2 vs 5.7), xG per match (1.1 vs 0.98), and xGA per match (1.9 vs 2.4) reflects a more consistent form. These indicators align with their one-point edge in the current standings. In the small head-to-head sample of four matches since 2022, Newcastle United holds the upper hand with 2 wins to Palace's 1, plus a draw.

    The expected rainy conditions, coupled with Crystal Palace's counter-attack and cross-heavy approach against Newcastle's physical and balanced play, could dampen goal-scoring opportunities. Though the numbers indicate a slight lean towards over 2.5 goals at 54%, weather conditions could suppress this, aligning more with the 1-1 draw prediction.

    For those seeking an edge, the draw presents an attractive value proposition. With three bookmakers—Betsafe, LeoVegas, and Nordicbet—offering odds of 3.6, the model identifies an 8% edge over the implied probability. The draw at these odds is the sharpest play in a matchup where both teams might just cancel each other out.

    Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace
    Form WLDWL
    League ranking xG #19xGA #20xT #13xP/match #20Points #14
    Key players
    • Adam WhartonCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.10
    • Daichi KamadaCMxG 0.09 · xT 0.11
    • Yeremy PinoLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.19
    Newcastle UnitedNewcastle United
    Form DLWLL
    League ranking xG #15xGA #19xT #15xP/match #19Points #12
    Key players
    • Lewis HallLBxG 0.06 · xT 0.15
    • Anthony ElangaRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.14
    • Nico GonzalezCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.10

    Match prediction: Crystal Palace – Newcastle United

    Predicted score matrix

    Newcastle United →
    Crystal Palace →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.2%
    0–17.0%
    0–24.7%
    0–32.0%
    0–4+0.8%
    1
    1–08.9%
    1–112.0%
    1–27.3%
    1–33.1%
    1–4+1.3%
    2
    2–07.3%
    2–19.2%
    2–25.8%
    2–32.4%
    2–4+1.0%
    3
    3–03.8%
    3–14.8%
    3–23.0%
    3–31.3%
    3–4+0.5%
    4+
    4+–02.1%
    4+–12.7%
    4+–21.7%
    4+–30.7%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-09%
    4. 4.1-27%
    5. 5.2-07%
    Expected goals
    1,58–1,26
    Both teams to score
    57%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,546%
    @2.36EV+9%
    Over 2,554%
    @1.61

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Crystal Palace or draw (1X)70%
    • Over 1.5 goals78%

    Combined probability

    55%

    Fair odds

    1.83

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Crystal Palace or draw (1X)70%
    • Over 2.5 goals54%
    • Jørgen Strand Larsen to score24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score57%
    • Over 2.5 goals54%
    • Jørgen Strand Larsen to score24%
    • Nicolás González Iglesias to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 2.546% probability@2.36BetsafeEV+9%reference odds
    • Under 2.546% probability@2.36NordicbetEV+9%reference odds
    • X · Draw30% probability@3.60BetsafeEV+8%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Crystal PalaceX2 · Newcastle United
    Betsafe
    EV+ 4%
    2.90
    EV+ 8%
    3.60    		2.30
    LeoVegas2.75
    EV+ 6%
    3.55    		2.40
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 4%
    2.90
    EV+ 8%
    3.60    		2.32
    Pinnacle2.67
    EV+ 7%
    3.56    		2.51

    Odds updated 22 Oct, 07:37

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Crystal Palace 1Draw 1Newcastle United 2
    Goals: 3–9 (⌀ 3)

    Head-to-head based on Premier League data since 2022.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Crystal Palace
    Newcastle United
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Crystal Palace (9–17)
    Newcastle United (10–14)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Crystal Palace
    Chris Richards: 200 passningar, xT 0.19RichardsJaydee Canvot: 160 passningar, xT 0.13CanvotAdam Wharton: 150 passningar, xT 0.2WhartonAnan Khalaili: 129 passningar, xT 0.48KhalailiTyrick Mitchell: 113 passningar, xT 0.21MitchellYeremy Pino: 109 passningar, xT 0.56PinoDaichi Kamada: 109 passningar, xT 0.11KamadaQuinten Timber: 98 passningar, xT 0.13TimberWalter Benítez: 87 passningar, xT 0.07BenítezHonest Ahanor: 84 passningar, xT 0.05AhanorAxel Disasi: 70 passningar, xT -0.06Disasi
    Newcastle United
    Malick Thiaw: 275 passningar, xT -0.01ThiawLewis Hall: 271 passningar, xT 0.29HallSven Botman: 269 passningar, xT 0.7BotmanLewis Miley: 208 passningar, xT 0.7MileyNico Gonzalez: 154 passningar, xT 0.22GonzalezLukáš Horníček: 122 passningar, xT 0.08HorníčekJoe Willock: 111 passningar, xT 0.08WillockSean Steur: 109 passningar, xT 0.05SteurHarvey Barnes: 96 passningar, xT 0.67BarnesAmar Dedić: 75 passningar, xT 0.11DedićYoane Wissa: 70 passningar, xT 0.08Wissa
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Crystal Palace
    Chris Richards: 200 passningar, xT 0.19RichardsJaydee Canvot: 160 passningar, xT 0.13CanvotAdam Wharton: 150 passningar, xT 0.2WhartonAnan Khalaili: 129 passningar, xT 0.48KhalailiTyrick Mitchell: 113 passningar, xT 0.21MitchellYeremy Pino: 109 passningar, xT 0.56PinoDaichi Kamada: 109 passningar, xT 0.11KamadaQuinten Timber: 98 passningar, xT 0.13TimberWalter Benítez: 87 passningar, xT 0.07BenítezHonest Ahanor: 84 passningar, xT 0.05AhanorAxel Disasi: 70 passningar, xT -0.06Disasi
    Newcastle United
    Malick Thiaw: 275 passningar, xT -0.01ThiawLewis Hall: 271 passningar, xT 0.29HallSven Botman: 269 passningar, xT 0.7BotmanLewis Miley: 208 passningar, xT 0.7MileyNico Gonzalez: 154 passningar, xT 0.22GonzalezLukáš Horníček: 122 passningar, xT 0.08HorníčekJoe Willock: 111 passningar, xT 0.08WillockSean Steur: 109 passningar, xT 0.05SteurHarvey Barnes: 96 passningar, xT 0.67BarnesAmar Dedić: 75 passningar, xT 0.11DedićYoane Wissa: 70 passningar, xT 0.08Wissa

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceCrystal PalaceNewcastle United
    Points78
    xPoints5.76.2
    xG per match0.981.1
    xGA per match2.41.9
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.150.18
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.550.53
    Playing styleCrystal PalaceNewcastle United
    Build-up efficiency0.30.31
    Field tilt0.380.48
    xT per match0.890.87
    xTA per match1.20.85
    Won balls, offensive half2222
    Pressing intensity0.250.24
    Pressing efficiency0.260.31
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.190.27
    Entries into the box per match911
    Entries into the box against1714
    Pass completion %0.750.78
    Pass completion % under pressure0.690.72
    Passes per match328362
    Passes against per match459329
    Switches of play per match16.324.2
    Long balls per match2328
    Set piecesCrystal PalaceNewcastle United
    xG from free kicks0.010.03
    Corners per match3.14.6
    Corners against per match5.75.3
    xG per corner0.040.01
    xGA per corner against0.050.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.230.28
    First touch, defensive corners %0.550.51
    OtherCrystal PalaceNewcastle United
    Throw-in control0.730.74
    The goalkeepersWalter Benítez (Crystal Palace)Lukáš Horníček (Newcastle United)
    Saves1424
    Save %64%67%
    xG prevented49%52%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Crystal Palace
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Newcastle United
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United according to our model?

    The model gives Crystal Palace a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Crystal Palace 36%, draw 30%, Newcastle United 34%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United?

    The model expects 1.58 goals (xG) for Crystal Palace and 1.26 for Newcastle United, 2.84 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    Crystal Palace or draw (1X) 66%, Newcastle United or draw (X2) 64% and no draw (12) 70%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.