Sunderland vs Leeds United Prediction: Home win 40% (25 Oct 2026)

Premier League25 October 2026Stadium of Light, Sunderland10°52 km/h

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SunderlandPossession control

Leeds UnitedPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Sunderland (40%)

1 · Sunderland 40%X 31%29% Leeds United · 2

40%

31%

29%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Sunderland vs Leeds United (Premier League, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Sunderland win 40%, draw 31%, Leeds United win 29%. Expected goals (xG): Sunderland 1.23, Leeds United 1.13. Most likely score: 1-1 (14%). Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%. Double chance: Sunderland or draw 71%, Leeds United or draw 60%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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Analysis: Sunderland – Leeds United

Sofia Andersson · 19 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Sunderland’s 40% model probability of victory suggests a slight edge over Leeds United, yet their recent four-match losing streak complicates this narrative. Despite the hosts’ control-oriented style, they've struggled against opponents, allowing more goals than they score. Leeds, with a stronger points tally and superior xG, seems a more convincing side overall. However, the model still leans towards Sunderland, hinting at an upset.

A small head-to-head sample since 2022 gives Sunderland a partial edge, with one win and a draw in two matches, but these games weigh less than current form and the underlying numbers. Sunderland’s expected goals of 1.23 closely match Leeds’ 1.13, suggesting a tight contest. Still, an expected goals against of 1.8 for the home side is a cause for concern, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities.

The most likely scorelines are 1-1 and 1-0, which align with Sunderland’s slight edge in model probability. Rain in the forecast could suppress scoring, reflected in the modest 42% chance of over 2.5 goals. Both teams have similar playing styles, potentially neutralizing each other’s strengths and supporting a low-scoring prediction.

Given the numbers, a narrow 1-0 victory for Sunderland isn’t out of reach, especially considering the model’s 40% win probability. Although Leeds' form suggests they are more robust, the home side’s potential for an upset should not be ignored.

The sharpest angle comes from the odds. With Betsafe and Nordicbet offering 2.92 and LeoVegas 2.85 for a Sunderland win, there’s clear value here. The model indicates a 16% edge with Betsafe and Nordicbet, making Sunderland an attractive bet at home despite their struggles.

Sunderland

Form DLLLL

League ranking xG #13xGA #17xT #14xP/match #18Points #19

Key players

Granit XhakaCDMxG 0.01 · xT 0.24
Enzo Le FéeCAMxG 0.28 · xT 0.14
Nordi MukieleRWBxG 0.11 · xT 0.15

Leeds United

Form DWDLD

League ranking xG #11xGA #13xT #16xP/match #12Points #7

Key players

Anton StachFxG 0.14 · xT 0.02
Dominic Calvert LewinFxG 0.44 · xT 0.09
James JustinCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.15

Match prediction: Sunderland – Leeds United

Predicted score matrix

Leeds United →

Sunderland →

0–09.8%

0–110.3%

0–26.0%

0–32.3%

0–4+0.8%

1–011.2%

1–113.5%

1–27.4%

1–32.8%

1–4+1.0%

2–07.1%

2–18.1%

2–24.6%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.6%

3–02.9%

3–13.3%

3–21.9%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.2%

4+–11.3%

4+–20.8%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.1-011%
3.0-110%
4.0-010%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,23–1,13

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

122%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,558%

@1.79EV+0%

Over 2,542%

@2.16

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Sunderland or draw (1X)67%
Under 3.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Sunderland or draw (1X)67%
Under 2.5 goals58%
Granit Xhaka to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Granit Xhaka to score22%
Tarik Muharemović to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Sunderland40% probability@3.10NordicbetEV+24%reference odds
1 · Sunderland40% probability@3.05BetsafeEV+22%reference odds
1 · Sunderland40% probability@3.05LeoVegasEV+22%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Sunderland	X	2 · Leeds United
Betsafe	EV+ 22% 3.05	3.15	2.40
LeoVegas	EV+ 22% 3.05	EV+ 1% 3.25	2.38
Nordicbet	EV+ 24% 3.10	3.20	2.42
Pinnacle	EV+ 9% 2.74	EV+ 5% 3.37	2.56

Odds updated 22 Oct, 07:37

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Sunderland 1Draw 1Leeds United 0

Goals: 2–1 (⌀ 1,5)

Head-to-head based on Premier League data since 2022.

Key facts

Sunderland AFC have lost 4 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sunderland

Leeds United

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Sunderland (6–14)

Leeds United (9–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sunderland

Leeds United

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sunderland

Leeds United

The teams in numbers

Performance	Sunderland	Leeds United
Points	4	10
xPoints	7.1	9.9
xG per match	1.2	1.4
xGA per match	1.8	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.08	0.2
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.26	0.27

Playing style	Sunderland	Leeds United
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.32
Field tilt	0.45	0.33
xT per match	0.87	0.78
xTA per match	0.98	0.98
Won balls, offensive half	24	33
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.3
Entries into the box per match	13	10
Entries into the box against	13	11
Pass completion %	0.74	0.72
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.69
Passes per match	321	313
Passes against per match	347	368
Switches of play per match	24.9	23.2
Long balls per match	34	31

Set pieces	Sunderland	Leeds United
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.04
Corners per match	4.2	4.1
Corners against per match	4.1	4.2
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.43	0.21
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.72

Other	Sunderland	Leeds United
Throw-in control	0.68	0.76

The goalkeepers	Robin Roefs (Sunderland)	James Trafford (Leeds United)
Saves	12	27
Save %	46%	82%
xG prevented	37%	62%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Sunderland

Fixtures, form & tips

Leeds United

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sunderland vs Leeds United according to our model?

The model gives Sunderland a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sunderland 40%, draw 31%, Leeds United 29%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Sunderland vs Leeds United?

The model expects 1.23 goals (xG) for Sunderland and 1.13 for Leeds United, 2.36 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Sunderland or draw (1X) 71%, Leeds United or draw (X2) 60% and no draw (12) 69%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.