Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest Prediction: Away win 47% (23 Oct 2026)

Premier League23 October 2026Portman Road, Ipswich11°24,5 mm35 km/h

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Ipswich TownLow block & direct

Nottingham ForestLow block & direct

The model's lean: 2 · Nottingham Forest (47%)

1 · Ipswich Town 28%X 25%47% Nottingham Forest · 2

28%

25%

47%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest (Premier League, Friday, 23 October 2026): Ipswich Town win 28%, draw 25%, Nottingham Forest win 47%. Expected goals (xG): Ipswich Town 1.30, Nottingham Forest 1.49. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%. Double chance: Ipswich Town or draw 53%, Nottingham Forest or draw 72%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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Analysis: Ipswich Town – Nottingham Forest

Anna Karlsson · 19 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

The forecast section misstates the 1-1 scoreline probability.

Corrected text:

In the last two meetings between Ipswich Town and Nottingham Forest, the visitors have come out on top, securing victories both times. While this head-to-head record, based on just two encounters, offers limited insight, it sets an intriguing backdrop for their upcoming clash. Ipswich, despite sitting higher on the table with 9 points compared to Forest's 5, enter this match with a slender lead in terms of current form. Yet, the model and expected goal statistics seem to tilt the scales in favor of Nottingham Forest, hinting at a more nuanced battle than the points alone might suggest.

The hosts present a tricky profile, characterized by a low defensive line and a preference for direct play. However, their vulnerability is reflected in their xGA of 1.8 per match, significantly higher than Forest's 1.3. This defensive frailty might be their undoing, especially against a Forest side that, despite their current losing run, boasts a superior xG of 1.7 per match. The visitors’ recent run of three consecutive losses might raise eyebrows, but it also masks their potential to bounce back — an element that betting markets seem to recognize.

Forecast models peg the most probable outcomes as tightly contested, with a 1-1 draw having a 12% chance and a narrow 1-2 victory for Nottingham Forest at 9%. The balance of expected goals — Ipswich with 1.30 and Forest with 1.49 — suggests a close encounter with a slight tilt towards the visitors. The rainy forecast, while potentially dampening the goal tally, is already factored into the over 2.5 goals probability, which still stands at 53%.

When assessing the betting landscape, the odds offer an interesting angle. Despite Forest's recent struggles, their 47% win probability, combined with attractive odds from several bookmakers, presents potential value. Notably, Nordicbet offers Forest to win at odds of 2.28, reflecting a 7% edge according to the model. For those looking to capitalize on market inefficiencies, Forest at these odds may be the sharpest play.

Ipswich Town

Form LWLWL

League ranking xG #16xGA #16xT #12xP/match #15Points #10

Key players

EmersonnFxG 0.31 · xT 0.06
Saša LukićCDMxG 0.01 · xT 0.06
Leif DavisLWBxG 0.16 · xT 0.12

Nottingham Forest

Form DWLLL

League ranking xG #5xGA #6xT #3xP/match #4Points #18

Key players

James McAteeCMxG 0.09 · xT 0.11
Ousmane DiomandeCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.02
Daniel MunozRWxG 0.14 · xT 0.24

Match prediction: Ipswich Town – Nottingham Forest

Predicted score matrix

Nottingham Forest →

Ipswich Town →

0–06.5%

0–18.8%

0–26.9%

0–33.4%

0–4+1.8%

1–07.6%

1–112.2%

1–28.9%

1–34.4%

1–4+2.3%

2–05.2%

2–17.7%

2–25.8%

2–32.9%

2–4+1.5%

3–02.2%

3–13.3%

3–22.5%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.6%

4+–01.0%

4+–11.4%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-29%
3.0-19%
4.2-18%
5.1-08%

Expected goals

1,30–1,49

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+15%

Under 2,547%

@2.11

Over 2,553%

@1.78

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Nottingham Forest to win47%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Nottingham Forest to win47%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Liam Rory Delap to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Emersonn Correia da Silva to score26%
Xaver Schlager to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Nottingham Forest47% probability@2.30LeoVegasEV+8%reference odds
2 · Nottingham Forest47% probability@2.27PinnacleEV+7%reference odds
2 · Nottingham Forest47% probability@2.25NordicbetEV+6%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Ipswich Town	X	2 · Nottingham Forest
Betsafe	3.05	3.50	EV+ 4% 2.22
LeoVegas	3.05	3.50	EV+ 8% 2.30
Nordicbet	3.10	3.50	EV+ 6% 2.25
Pinnacle	3.25	3.47	EV+ 7% 2.27

Odds updated 22 Oct, 07:36

Odds movement

1-1 %

32 %27 %

3.27 → 3.25

X0 %

30 %25 %

3.47 → 3.47

20 %

45 %40 %

2.26 → 2.27

Over 2,50 %

57 %52 %

1.78 → 1.78

Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 21/10/2026 → 22/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Ipswich Town 0Draw 0Nottingham Forest 2

Goals: 2–5 (⌀ 3,5)

Head-to-head based on Premier League data since 2022.

Key facts

Nottingham Forest have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Ipswich Town

Nottingham Forest

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Ipswich Town (11–15)

Nottingham Forest (5–9)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Ipswich Town

Nottingham Forest

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Ipswich Town

Nottingham Forest

The teams in numbers

Performance	Ipswich Town	Nottingham Forest
Points	9	5
xPoints	8.5	11.5
xG per match	1.1	1.7
xGA per match	1.8	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.15	0.34
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.28	0.11

Playing style	Ipswich Town	Nottingham Forest
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.32
Field tilt	0.37	0.49
xT per match	0.89	1.2
xTA per match	0.92	0.78
Won balls, offensive half	25	24
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.22	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.21
Entries into the box per match	8	15
Entries into the box against	14	12
Pass completion %	0.77	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.69
Passes per match	334	303
Passes against per match	468	375
Switches of play per match	17.2	26.7
Long balls per match	27	34

Set pieces	Ipswich Town	Nottingham Forest
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.04
Corners per match	3.3	4.7
Corners against per match	4.7	4.8
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.26	0.33
First touch, defensive corners %	0.61	0.44

Other	Ipswich Town	Nottingham Forest
Throw-in control	0.7	0.78

The goalkeepers	Kjell Scherpen (Ipswich Town)	Matz Sels (Nottingham Forest)
Saves	16	15
Save %	64%	63%
xG prevented	49%	57%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Ipswich Town

Fixtures, form & tips

Nottingham Forest

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest according to our model?

The model gives Nottingham Forest a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ipswich Town 28%, draw 25%, Nottingham Forest 47%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest?

The model expects 1.30 goals (xG) for Ipswich Town and 1.49 for Nottingham Forest, 2.79 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Ipswich Town or draw (1X) 53%, Nottingham Forest or draw (X2) 72% and no draw (12) 75%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.