01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Fulham or draw (X2)68%
- Under 3.5 goals76%
Premier LeagueCoventry Building Society Arena, Coventry10°12,9 mm33 km/h
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Coventry CityLow block & directvs
FulhamPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Fulham (43%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 4.11 (+16 %)
Coventry City vs Fulham · Premier League
1 · Coventry City 28%X 29%43% Fulham · 2
28%
29%
43%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Coventry City vs Fulham (Premier League, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Coventry City win 28%, draw 29%, Fulham win 43%. Expected goals (xG): Coventry City 1.17, Fulham 1.34. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%. Double chance: Coventry City or draw 57%, Fulham or draw 72%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
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Analysis: Coventry City – Fulham
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
The clash between Coventry City and Fulham promises a chess match on the pitch, with Fulham leaning on possession control while the hosts opt for a more direct approach. The numbers hint at a tightly contested affair, characterized by defensive caution rather than attacking flair. With expected goals tilting slightly towards Fulham at 1.34 to Coventry's 1.17, and Coventry City edging the actual points count, the margins are fine.
Recent form presents an intriguing wrinkle. Despite Coventry City's slight points advantage, Fulham's superior expected points tally of 10.6 to Coventry's 7.1 paints a different picture. This suggests that Fulham might be underperforming their underlying numbers, hinting at a possible uptick in their fortunes. The model's probabilities give the visitors a 43% chance of victory, reinforcing this notion.
The weather forecast of rain adds another layer of intrigue, likely suppressing the goal count further and playing into the hands of Fulham's controlled style. It aligns with the underwhelming 46% chance of more than 2.5 goals. The most probable scorelines—1-1 at 13% and 0-1 at 11%—suggest a low-scoring draw or a narrow win for Fulham, with the draw seeming slightly more plausible.
For those seeking value, the standout betting angle lies in the under 1.5 goals market. Offered at odds of 4.11 with Betsafe and Nordicbet, and 4.1 with LeoVegas, the model estimates a 28% probability of hitting this outcome, presenting a 15-16% edge. In a game where defensive discipline may prevail, this is the edge worth considering.
Coventry CityForm LLLWW
League ranking xG #18xGA #18xT #17xP/match #16Points #16
Key players
- Bobby ThomasCBxG 0.11 · xT 0.14
- Milan Van EwijkRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.08
- Jack RudoniLWxG 0.36 · xT 0.23
FulhamForm LDDLW
League ranking xG #8xGA #4xT #4xP/match #7Points #17
Key players
- Alex IwobiLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.38
- Antonee RobinsonLWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.09
- Joachim AndersenCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.06
Match prediction: Coventry City – Fulham
Predicted score matrix
Fulham →
Coventry City →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.5%
0–110.5%
0–27.3%
0–33.3%
0–4+1.5%
1
1–09.1%
1–113.1%
1–28.5%
1–33.8%
1–4+1.7%
2
2–05.5%
2–17.4%
2–25.0%
2–32.2%
2–4+1.0%
3
3–02.2%
3–12.9%
3–21.9%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–00.8%
4+–11.1%
4+–20.7%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-111%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.1-29%
- 5.0-09%
Expected goals
1,17–1,34
Both teams to score
51%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,509%
120%
226%
321%
413%
5+11%
Under 2,554%
@2.10EV+13%
Over 2,546%
@1.77
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Fulham or draw (X2)68%
- Under 2.5 goals54%
- Gonzalo García Torres to score24%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score51%
- Over 2.5 goals46%
- Gonzalo García Torres to score24%
- Shea Emmanuel Charles to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 1.528% probability@4.11BetsafeEV+16%reference odds
- Under 1.528% probability@4.11NordicbetEV+16%reference odds
- Under 2.554% probability@2.10LeoVegasEV+14%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Coventry City | X | 2 · Fulham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
| LeoVegas | 2.90 | 3.45 | EV+ 2% 2.35 |
| Nordicbet | 3.05 | 3.45 | EV+ 1% 2.32 |
Odds updated 22 Oct, 07:37
Odds movement
1+2 %
35 %30 %
2.85 → 2.90
X-1 %
30 %25 %
3.50 → 3.45
20 %
43 %38 %
2.35 → 2.35
Over 2,50 %
58 %53 %
1.68 → 1.68
LeoVegas · 21 recorded price levels · 16/10/2026 → 22/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Coventry City
Fulham
Coventry City (5–11)
Fulham (7–10)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Coventry City
Fulham
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Coventry City
Fulham
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Coventry City | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 6 | 5 |
| xPoints | 7.1 | 10.6 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.14 | 0.35 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.36 | 0.17 |
| Playing style | Coventry City | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.33 | 0.54 |
| xT per match | 0.78 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 20 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.71 | 0.81 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.67 | 0.76 |
| Passes per match | 257 | 498 |
| Passes against per match | 500 | 360 |
| Switches of play per match | 19.8 | 31.3 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 29 |
| Set pieces | Coventry City | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 3.7 | 6.3 |
| Corners against per match | 4.9 | 4.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.41 | 0.4 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.62 | 0.5 |
| Other | Coventry City | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.79 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Carl Rushworth (Coventry City) | Bernd Leno (Fulham) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 14 | 20 |
| Save % | 61% | 67% |
| xG prevented | 46% | 51% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Ipswich Town – Nottingham Forest23 October 2026
- Aston Villa – Manchester City24 October 2026
- Arsenal – Everton24 October 2026
- Chelsea – Tottenham Hotspur24 October 2026
- Hull City – Brentford25 October 2026
- Liverpool – Brighton & Hove Albion25 October 2026
- Crystal Palace – Newcastle United25 October 2026
- Manchester United – Bournemouth25 October 2026
- Sunderland – Leeds United25 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Coventry City vs Fulham according to our model?
The model gives Fulham a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Coventry City 28%, draw 29%, Fulham 43%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Coventry City vs Fulham?
The model expects 1.17 goals (xG) for Coventry City and 1.34 for Fulham, 2.51 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Coventry City or draw (1X) 57%, Fulham or draw (X2) 72% and no draw (12) 71%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.