Premier LeagueMKM Stadium, Hull10°0,3 mm39 km/h

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    Hull CityHull CityLow block & direct
    vs
    BrentfordBrentfordCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 2 · Brentford (57%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 4.61 (+14 %)

    Hull City vs Brentford · Premier League

    1 · Hull City 19%X 24%57% Brentford · 2

    Prediction summary

    BetBuilders AI model prediction for Hull City vs Brentford (Premier League, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Hull City win 19%, draw 24%, Brentford win 57%. Expected goals (xG): Hull City 1.08, Brentford 1.62. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Hull City or draw 43%, Brentford or draw 81%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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    Analysis: Hull City – Brentford

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    Brentford's 57% probability for a win looms large as they visit Hull City, underlined by the Bees' potent attack having scored in nine consecutive league matches. The hosts' strategy of low defense and direct play contrasts sharply with Brentford's counter-attacking and crossing prowess. This stylistic clash is set against Hull's more marginal xGA advantage of 1.4, identical to Brentford's, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities on both sides. Yet, Brentford's superior xG of 1.8 compared to Hull's 0.9 suggests the visitors are likelier to exploit those gaps.

    The most probable outcomes, a 1-1 or a narrow 0-1 to Brentford, reflect the expected tightness of the contest. Rain might dampen the attacking dynamism, already factored into the model's projections. With over 2.5 goals pegged at an even 50% and both teams to score at 53%, a cautious approach to goal expectations is warranted. Hull trails slightly in points and xPoints, reinforcing Brentford's edge.

    The sharpest angle surfaces in the betting market: under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.16 with Betsafe presents a 7% value edge, appealing for those anticipating a controlled match. Despite the potential for a Brentford win, the value suggests a lean towards fewer goals in a closely contested affair.

    Hull CityHull City
    Form DDLDL
    League ranking xG #20xGA #9xT #19xP/match #11Points #9
    Key players
    • Mohamed BelloumiRWxG 0.17 · xT 0.05
    • Oli McBurnieFxG 0.19 · xT 0.01
    • Regan SlaterCAMxG 0.04 · xT -0.01
    BrentfordBrentford
    Form DDWDL
    League ranking xG #4xGA #11xT #2xP/match #6Points #6
    Key players
    • Nathan CollinsCBxG 0.26 · xT 0.08
    • Vitaly JaneltCMxG 0.10 · xT 0.07
    • Igor ThiagoFxG 0.46 · xT 0.05

    Match prediction: Hull City – Brentford

    Predicted score matrix

    Brentford →
    Hull City →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.1%
    0–110.6%
    0–28.8%
    0–34.8%
    0–4+2.8%
    1
    1–06.9%
    1–112.1%
    1–29.5%
    1–35.1%
    1–4+3.0%
    2
    2–03.9%
    2–16.4%
    2–25.1%
    2–32.8%
    2–4+1.6%
    3
    3–01.4%
    3–12.3%
    3–21.8%
    3–31.0%
    3–4+0.6%
    4+
    4+–00.5%
    4+–10.8%
    4+–20.6%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.0-111%
    3. 3.1-210%
    4. 4.0-29%
    5. 5.0-07%
    Expected goals
    1,08–1,62
    Both teams to score
    53%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,7
    Under 2,550%
    @2.29EV+13%
    Over 2,550%
    @1.72

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Brentford to win57%
    • Under 3.5 goals72%

    Combined probability

    34%

    Fair odds

    2.97

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Brentford to win57%
    • Over 2.5 goals50%
    • Callum Eddie Graham Wilson to score23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score53%
    • Over 2.5 goals50%
    • Callum Eddie Graham Wilson to score23%
    • Regan Newman Slater to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 1.525% probability@4.61BetsafeEV+14%reference odds
    • Under 1.525% probability@4.61NordicbetEV+14%reference odds
    • Under 2.550% probability@2.29BetsafeEV+13%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Hull CityX2 · Brentford
    Betsafe4.754.001.65
    LeoVegas4.503.951.70
    Nordicbet4.804.051.68
    Pinnacle4.593.911.71

    Odds updated 22 Oct, 08:37

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • Brentford have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Hull City
    Brentford
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Hull City (8–7)
    Brentford (13–8)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Hull City
    Semi Ajayi: 112 passningar, xT 0.23AjayiKonstantinos Tzolakis: 106 passningar, xT 0.22TzolakisLewie Coyle: 98 passningar, xT 0.34CoyleJohn Egan: 92 passningar, xT 0.13EganRegan Slater: 88 passningar, xT -0.1SlaterRyan Giles: 85 passningar, xT 0.78GilesLucas Herrington: 69 passningar, xT -0.03HerringtonSorba Thomas: 58 passningar, xT 0.37ThomasNobel Mendy: 57 passningar, xT 0.08MendyMohamed Belloumi: 54 passningar, xT 0.19BelloumiOli McBurnie: 47 passningar, xT -0.07McBurnie
    Brentford
    Kristoffer Ajer: 166 passningar, xT 0.55AjerVitaly Janelt: 161 passningar, xT 0.51JaneltCaoimhin Kelleher: 120 passningar, xT 0.14KelleherKeane Lewis Potter: 107 passningar, xT 0.91PotterYehor Yarmoliuk: 106 passningar, xT 0.53YarmoliukJannik Schuster: 89 passningar, xT 0.31SchusterMamadou Sangaré: 86 passningar, xT 0.28SangaréMichael Kayode: 81 passningar, xT 0.44KayodeMikkel Damsgaard: 77 passningar, xT 0.38DamsgaardIgor Thiago: 72 passningar, xT 0.08ThiagoAaron Hickey: 62 passningar, xT 0.07Hickey
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Hull City
    Semi Ajayi: 112 passningar, xT 0.23AjayiKonstantinos Tzolakis: 106 passningar, xT 0.22TzolakisLewie Coyle: 98 passningar, xT 0.34CoyleJohn Egan: 92 passningar, xT 0.13EganRegan Slater: 88 passningar, xT -0.1SlaterRyan Giles: 85 passningar, xT 0.78GilesLucas Herrington: 69 passningar, xT -0.03HerringtonSorba Thomas: 58 passningar, xT 0.37ThomasNobel Mendy: 57 passningar, xT 0.08MendyMohamed Belloumi: 54 passningar, xT 0.19BelloumiOli McBurnie: 47 passningar, xT -0.07McBurnie
    Brentford
    Kristoffer Ajer: 166 passningar, xT 0.55AjerVitaly Janelt: 161 passningar, xT 0.51JaneltCaoimhin Kelleher: 120 passningar, xT 0.14KelleherKeane Lewis Potter: 107 passningar, xT 0.91PotterYehor Yarmoliuk: 106 passningar, xT 0.53YarmoliukJannik Schuster: 89 passningar, xT 0.31SchusterMamadou Sangaré: 86 passningar, xT 0.28SangaréMichael Kayode: 81 passningar, xT 0.44KayodeMikkel Damsgaard: 77 passningar, xT 0.38DamsgaardIgor Thiago: 72 passningar, xT 0.08ThiagoAaron Hickey: 62 passningar, xT 0.07Hickey

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceHull CityBrentford
    Points910
    xPoints1010.8
    xG per match0.91.8
    xGA per match1.41.4
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.170.52
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.170.23
    Playing styleHull CityBrentford
    Build-up efficiency0.30.29
    Field tilt0.240.39
    xT per match0.621.3
    xTA per match1.40.9
    Won balls, offensive half2229
    Pressing intensity0.240.24
    Pressing efficiency0.210.27
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.180.27
    Entries into the box per match1015
    Entries into the box against1815
    Pass completion %0.660.7
    Pass completion % under pressure0.660.67
    Passes per match205278
    Passes against per match552367
    Switches of play per match22.317.3
    Long balls per match3027
    Set piecesHull CityBrentford
    xG from free kicks0.050.02
    Corners per match3.73.8
    Corners against per match6.65
    xG per corner0.050.09
    xGA per corner against0.030.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.350.59
    First touch, defensive corners %0.630.5
    OtherHull CityBrentford
    Throw-in control0.730.67
    The goalkeepersKonstantinos Tzolakis (Hull City)Caoimhin Kelleher (Brentford)
    Saves2925
    Save %81%76%
    xG prevented83%48%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Hull City
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Brentford
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Hull City vs Brentford according to our model?

    The model gives Brentford a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hull City 19%, draw 24%, Brentford 57%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in Hull City vs Brentford?

    The model expects 1.08 goals (xG) for Hull City and 1.62 for Brentford, 2.69 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    Hull City or draw (1X) 43%, Brentford or draw (X2) 81% and no draw (12) 76%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.