Crystal Palace vs Manchester City: Prediction & Odds (28 Aug 2026)

Premier League28 August 2026Selhurst Park, London19°1,7 mm24 km/h

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Crystal PalaceBalanced & physical

1–4

Manchester CityPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Manchester City (58%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 4.53 (+12 %)

1 · Crystal Palace 19%X 23%58% Manchester City · 2

19%

23%

58%

Analysis: Crystal Palace – Manchester City

Sofia Andersson · 27 August 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

In the last four meetings between Crystal Palace and Manchester City, Palace have yet to claim a victory, with the visitors securing three wins and a draw. This small sample indicates a clear upper hand for City, but Palace's balanced and physical approach always makes them a tricky opponent. Despite this, City's high press and possession-based play have proven difficult for Palace to handle, backed by City's ability to score in 17 consecutive league matches.

Current form and expected goals further underline City's dominance. They boast an expected goal tally of 1.81 compared to Palace's 0.88. The visitors' defensive strength is highlighted by an expected goals against of only 0.49 per match — a stark contrast to Palace's 1.5. This defensive solidity, coupled with their offensive prowess, supports the model's prediction favoring a Manchester City victory, with scorelines of 0-1 and 0-2 appearing most likely.

The model sets the probability for City to win at 58%, and the draw at 23%, leaving Palace with just a 19% chance of taking three points. Both teams to score sits at 49%, indicating an almost even split on this market. With rain expected, the potential for a lower-scoring affair is enhanced, aligning with the model's lean towards tighter scorelines.

A sharp betting angle emerges in the form of a low-scoring prediction. The value bet on under 1.5 goals at odds of 4.53 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet stands out given the model's rating of 25%, offering a 12% edge. While Manchester City are favored to edge this encounter, the potential for a narrow result shouldn't be overlooked, making this under market particularly appealing.

Crystal Palace

Form DLDLL

League ranking xG #10xGA #13xT #5xP/match #14Points #17

Key players

Adam WhartonCMxG 0.00 · xT 0.23
Daichi KamadaCMxG 0.00 · xT 0.16
Tyrick MitchellLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.02

Manchester City

Form WWDLW

League ranking xG #7xGA #4xT #3xP/match #9Points #8

Key players

Abdukodir KhusanovCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.07
Josko GvardiolLBxG 0.13 · xT 0.06
Rúben DiasCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.25

Final score

1 – 4

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Crystal Palace 19% · Draw 23% · Manchester City 58%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Manchester CityBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 4,75fair 6,73-29 %

Hit

Matchresultat - Crystal PalaceBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 14,82fair 27,75-47 %

Miss

Match prediction: Crystal Palace – Manchester City

Predicted score matrix

Manchester City →

Crystal Palace →

0–07.1%

0–111.9%

0–211.1%

0–36.7%

0–4+4.6%

1–05.7%

1–111.1%

1–29.8%

1–35.9%

1–4+4.0%

2–02.6%

2–14.8%

2–24.3%

2–32.6%

2–4+1.8%

3–00.8%

3–11.4%

3–21.3%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.5%

4+–00.2%

4+–10.4%

4+–20.3%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.0-112%
2.1-111%
3.0-211%
4.1-210%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

0,88–1,81

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,549%

@2.25EV+11%

Over 2,551%

@1.66

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Manchester City to win58%
Under 3.5 goals72%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Manchester City to win58%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Erling Braut Haaland to score33%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Erling Braut Haaland to score33%
Adam James Wharton to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 1.525% probability@4.53BetsafeEV+12%reference odds
Under 1.525% probability@4.53BetssonEV+12%reference odds
Under 1.525% probability@4.53NordicbetEV+12%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Crystal Palace	X	2 · Manchester City
Betsafe	5.05	4.00	1.62
Betsson	5.08	4.03	1.65
Nordicbet	5.10	4.05	1.65
Pinnacle	EV+ 1% 5.38	4.08	1.66

Odds updated 28 Aug, 20:32

Odds movement

1+1 %

22 %17 %

5.32 → 5.38

X-6 %

25 %20 %

4.32 → 4.08

2+6 %

61 %56 %

1.56 → 1.66

Pinnacle · 26 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 28/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Crystal Palace 0Draw 1Manchester City 3

Goals: 4–13 (⌀ 4,2)

Head-to-head based on Premier League data since 2022.

Key facts

Manchester City have scored in 17 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Crystal Palace

Manchester City

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Crystal Palace (0–2)

Manchester City (2–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Crystal Palace

Manchester City

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Crystal Palace

Manchester City

The teams in numbers

Performance	Crystal Palace	Manchester City
Points	0	3
xPoints	1	1.6
xG per match	1.3	1.6
xGA per match	1.5	0.49
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.44	0
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.7	0

Playing style	Crystal Palace	Manchester City
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.34
Field tilt	0.5	0.83
xT per match	1.3	1.5
xTA per match	1	0.21
Won balls, offensive half	30	35
Pressing intensity	0.27	0.19
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.22
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.23
Entries into the box per match	7	22
Entries into the box against	17	2
Pass completion %	0.82	0.84
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.78
Passes per match	482	571
Passes against per match	329	260
Switches of play per match	13.6	27
Long balls per match	14	26

Set pieces	Crystal Palace	Manchester City
xG from free kicks	0	0.07
Corners per match	0	8
Corners against per match	3.9	3
xG per corner	0	0.09
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0	0.62
First touch, defensive corners %	0.75	1

Other	Crystal Palace	Manchester City
Throw-in control	0.68	0.87

The goalkeepers	Dean Henderson (Crystal Palace)	Gianluigi Donnarumma (Manchester City)
Saves	3	3
Save %	60%	75%
xG prevented	49%	61%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Crystal Palace

Fixtures, form & tips

Manchester City

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Crystal Palace vs Manchester City according to our model?

The model gives Manchester City a 58% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Crystal Palace 19%, draw 23%, Manchester City 58%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 0-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.