Sunderland vs Fulham: Prediction & Odds (30 Aug 2026)

Premier League30 August 2026Stadium of Light, Sunderland16°12,7 mm13 km/h

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SunderlandPossession control

1–0

FulhamPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Fulham (38%)

1 · Sunderland 33%X 29%38% Fulham · 2

33%

29%

38%

Analysis: Sunderland – Fulham

Erik Lindberg · 27 August 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Fulham's slight advantage in the model probabilities—38% to Sunderland's 33%—sets the stage for a closely contested match. With both teams focused on possession control, the likely outcome leans toward a low-scoring affair, influenced by the predicted 2.4 mm of rain. The most probable scorelines, 1-1 and 0-1, reinforce the cautious nature of this encounter. The expected goals of Sunderland at 1.16 and Fulham at 1.25 suggest a tight battle, emphasizing defensive resilience over offensive flair.

Fulham's edge in several metrics, such as xG per match (1.5 to 0.85) and xG within 8 seconds of winning the ball (0.47 to 0.04), points to their potential to capitalize on quick transitions. However, Sunderland's marginal advantage in expected goals against (xGA) indicates they might stifle Fulham's attempts, particularly in a game likely to see limited clear-cut chances. The head-to-head record, albeit from just two matches, shows Fulham emerging victorious in both; still, the sample size remains small and less predictive than current form.

With under 2.5 goals marked at a 57% chance, the likelihood of a restrained match is high. For those seeking value, backing Fulham at odds of 3.0 on Betsafe, Betsson, or Nordicbet offers a compelling 15% edge, aligning with the model's 38% probability for a Fulham win.

Sunderland

Form DDWWL

League ranking xG #16xGA #10xT #16xP/match #17Points #14

Key players

Brian BrobbeyFxG 0.31 · xT -0.01
Granit XhakaCDMxG 0.03 · xT 0.12
Trai HumeRBxG 0.09 · xT 0.09

Fulham

Form LLDWL

League ranking xG #9xGA #16xT #12xP/match #15Points #12

Key players

Alex IwobiCAMxG 0.06 · xT 0.19
Raul JimenezFxG 0.49 · xT 0.00
Joachim AndersenCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.10

Final score

1 – 0

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Sunderland 33% · Draw 29% · Fulham 38%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - FulhamBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 11,09fair 12,76-13 %

Miss

Matchresultat - SunderlandBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 9,23fair 14,84-38 %

Miss

Match prediction: Sunderland – Fulham

Predicted score matrix

Fulham →

Sunderland →

0–09.4%

0–110.9%

0–27.0%

0–32.9%

0–4+1.2%

1–010.1%

1–113.4%

1–28.1%

1–33.4%

1–4+1.4%

2–06.0%

2–17.5%

2–24.7%

2–32.0%

2–4+0.8%

3–02.3%

3–12.9%

3–21.8%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–00.9%

4+–11.1%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-111%
3.1-010%
4.0-09%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,16–1,25

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

121%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,557%

@1.80EV+1%

Over 2,543%

@2.08

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Fulham or draw (X2)66%
Under 3.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Fulham or draw (X2)66%
Under 2.5 goals57%
Raúl Alonso Jiménez Rodríguez to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Brian Ebenezer Adjei Brobbey to score30%
Thomas Cairney to be booked26%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Fulham38% probability@3.08PinnacleEV+19%reference odds
2 · Fulham38% probability@3.00NordicbetEV+15%reference odds
2 · Fulham38% probability@2.99BetssonEV+15%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Sunderland	X	2 · Fulham
Betsafe	2.42	3.20	EV+ 15% 2.98
Betsson	2.45	3.23	EV+ 15% 2.99
Nordicbet	2.45	3.25	EV+ 15% 3.00
Pinnacle	2.48	3.24	EV+ 19% 3.08

Odds updated 30 Aug, 05:16

Odds movement

1-4 %

41 %36 %

2.59 → 2.48

X+1 %

32 %27 %

3.21 → 3.24

2+9 %

35 %30 %

2.82 → 3.08

Over 2,5-1 %

49 %44 %

2.09 → 2.07

Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Sunderland 0Draw 0Fulham 2

Goals: 1–4 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Premier League data since 2022.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sunderland

Fulham

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Sunderland (1–2)

Fulham (2–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sunderland

Fulham

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sunderland

Fulham

The teams in numbers

Performance	Sunderland	Fulham
Points	0	0
xPoints	0.7	0.9
xG per match	0.85	1.5
xGA per match	1.3	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.04	0.47
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.29	0.53

Playing style	Sunderland	Fulham
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.33
Field tilt	0.69	0.63
xT per match	0.55	0.79
xTA per match	1	0.91
Won balls, offensive half	18	23
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.38	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.39	0.22
Entries into the box per match	8	11
Entries into the box against	5	12
Pass completion %	0.8	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.77
Passes per match	495	541
Passes against per match	268	320
Switches of play per match	41.9	39.4
Long balls per match	45	44

Set pieces	Sunderland	Fulham
xG from free kicks	0	0
Corners per match	5.1	6.1
Corners against per match	3.1	4
xG per corner	0.02	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.08
First touch, offensive corners %	0.6	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	1	0.5

Other	Sunderland	Fulham
Throw-in control	0.77	0.86

The goalkeepers	Luke O'Nien (Sunderland)	Bernd Leno (Fulham)
Saves	1	3
Save %	100%	50%
xG prevented	100%	41%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Sunderland

Fixtures, form & tips

Fulham

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sunderland vs Fulham according to our model?

The model gives Fulham a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sunderland 33%, draw 29%, Fulham 38%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.