01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Nantes to win46%
- Under 3.5 goals77%
Ligue 2Stade de la Libération, Boulogne-sur-Mer17°0,3 mm30 km/h
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Boulognevs
NantesThe model's lean: 2 · Nantes (46%)
Boulogne – Nantes · Ligue 2
1 · Boulogne 24%X 30%46% Nantes · 2
24%
30%
46%
Analysis: Boulogne – Nantes
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
A glance at the model probabilities reveals a clear lean toward Nantes with a 46% chance of taking the win against Boulogne, who sit at 24%. This aligns with recent form: the visitors have shown a penchant for stifling opponents with their disciplined defense. In contrast, the hosts have struggled to consistently break through with their attack. Given the expected goals of 1.10 for Boulogne and 1.33 for Nantes, this match has the markings of a tight contest, where opportunities may be at a premium.
The predicted scorelines center around a 1-1 draw at 13%, with a Nantes 0-1 victory not far behind at 11%. Both suggest a low-scoring affair, a likely scenario given the visitors' defensive organization. The under 2.5 goals market sits at 56%, reflecting the cautious nature both teams are expected to bring to the pitch. For bettors who prefer stability over spectacle, this market presents a more grounded approach.
Boulogne's home advantage doesn't significantly shift the needle. While they have managed occasional flashes of creativity, their inconsistency in maintaining control through the midfield remains a concern. Meanwhile, Nantes has honed their ability to absorb pressure and capitalize on counter-attacks. This tactical discipline has been key to their form, even without flashy scorelines.
Head-to-head data is limited in sample size and should be weighed lightly against Nantes' current trajectory. The model accounts for this, focusing instead on the tactical and statistical elements that point to a narrow victory for the visitors. The hosts will need something special to disrupt this pattern, but recent evidence suggests they may lack the firepower.
For those scanning for value, the odds on a Nantes win may hold appeal, especially if the bookmakers have drifted on the visitors due to Boulogne's home factor. However, the sharpest insight lies in backing the under 2.5 goals — a projection supported by both form and expected goals, making it a prudent choice for those looking to keep the ledger neat.
BoulogneForm DLDDD
Key players
- Abdel HbouchFxG 0.32 · xT 0.14
- Benjamin BesicFxG 0.38 · xT 0.09
- Theo EpaillyLWxG 0.30 · xT 0.13
NantesForm LLLDW
Key players
- Wilitty YounoussaLWxG 0.15 · xT -0.04
- Herba GuirassyLWxG 0.31 · xT 0.08
- Killian CorredorFxG 0.37 · xT 0.24
Match prediction: Boulogne – Nantes
Predicted score matrix
Nantes →
Boulogne →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–09.2%
0–111.4%
0–27.8%
0–33.5%
0–4+1.5%
1
1–09.3%
1–113.3%
1–28.6%
1–33.8%
1–4+1.7%
2
2–05.3%
2–17.1%
2–24.7%
2–32.1%
2–4+0.9%
3
3–01.9%
3–12.6%
3–21.7%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–00.7%
4+–10.9%
4+–20.6%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-111%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.0-09%
- 5.1-29%
Expected goals
1,10–1,33
Both teams to score
49%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,409%
121%
226%
321%
413%
5+10%
Under 2,556%
–
Over 2,544%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Nantes to win46%
- Under 2.5 goals56%
- Bahmed Deuff to score26%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score49%
- Over 2.5 goals44%
- Bahmed Deuff to score26%
- Ibrahima Sissoko to be booked24%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Boulogne
Nantes
Boulogne (2–3)
Nantes (7–11)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Boulogne
Nantes
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Boulogne
Nantes
| The goalkeepers | Blondy Rudolph Nna Noukeu (Boulogne) | Maxime Dupé (Nantes) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 19 | 10 |
| Save % | 86% | 50% |
| xG prevented | 77% | 44% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Boulogne vs Nantes according to our model?
The model gives Nantes a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Boulogne 24%, draw 30%, Nantes 46%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.