01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Guingamp or draw (1X)63%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
Ligue 2Stade de Roudourou, Guingamp15°17 km/h
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Guingampvs
Red StarThe model's lean: 1 · Guingamp (38%)Soft draw
Guingamp – Red Star · Ligue 2
1 · Guingamp 38%X 27%35% Red Star · 2
38%
27%
35%
Analysis: Guingamp – Red Star
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
TEXT:
Four matches into their recent encounters, Guingamp have yet to find any success against Red Star, losing all four games. While this head-to-head record is unflattering for the hosts, the sample size is small and should be weighed cautiously against current form and expected goals. The current model gives Guingamp a slight edge in probabilities, with a 38% chance of winning compared to Red Star's 35%, indicating a competitive clash on the cards.
With both teams having expected goals hovering around 1.37 for Guingamp and 1.38 for Red Star, the match promises to be tightly contested. The model suggests a balanced matchup, with the most likely scoreline being a 1-1 draw at 12%, followed by narrow victories of 1-0 either way at 8%.
Despite the tight expected goals, the over 2.5 goals market is slightly favored at 52%, and with both teams to score sitting at 56%, there's an implication of at least some attacking success from both sides. This points to a game where defenses could be breached, although not excessively.
From a betting perspective, some may see value in backing Red Star given their perfect head-to-head record against Guingamp. Bet365 offers odds of 3.10 for Red Star to win. However, this head-to-head record spans a small sample of four matches and should be weighed against the model's lean toward Guingamp, which is based on current form and expected goals rather than past meetings.
GuingampForm LWLDD
Key players
- Albin DemouchyCBxG 0.11 · xT 0.10
- Stanislas KieltFxG 0.46 · xT 0.02
- Dylan LouiserreCDMxG 0.25 · xT 0.07
Red StarForm WDDLW
Key players
- Kévin CabralFxG 0.28 · xT 0.03
- Damien DurandLWxG 0.41 · xT 0.26
- Samuel RenelCDMxG 0.07 · xT 0.17
Match prediction: Guingamp – Red Star
Predicted score matrix
Red Star →
Guingamp →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.8%
0–18.5%
0–26.1%
0–32.8%
0–4+1.3%
1
1–08.4%
1–112.4%
1–28.3%
1–33.8%
1–4+1.8%
2
2–06.0%
2–18.3%
2–25.7%
2–32.6%
2–4+1.2%
3
3–02.8%
3–13.8%
3–22.6%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–01.3%
4+–11.8%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.0-18%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.1-28%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,37–1,38
Both teams to score
56%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,70
117%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,548%
–
Over 2,552%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Guingamp or draw (1X)63%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Stanislas Maxime Tom Kielt to score23%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score56%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Kévin Cabral to score27%
- Samuel Renel to be booked20%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesGuingamp 0Draw 0Red Star 4
Goals: 6–14 (⌀ 5)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Guingamp
Red Star
Guingamp (7–8)
Red Star (5–6)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Guingamp
Red Star
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Guingamp
Red Star
| The goalkeepers | Adrian Ortola (Guingamp) | Gaetan Poussin (Red Star) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 13 | 18 |
| Save % | 62% | 75% |
| xG prevented | 57% | 47% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Guingamp vs Red Star according to our model?
The model gives Guingamp a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Guingamp 38%, draw 27%, Red Star 35%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.