01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Saint-Étienne to win46%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
Ligue 2Stade Saint-Symphorien, Metz16°0,9 mm14 km/h
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Metzvs
Saint-ÉtienneThe model's lean: 2 · Saint-Étienne (46%)
Metz – Saint-Étienne · Ligue 2
1 · Metz 28%X 26%46% Saint-Étienne · 2
28%
26%
46%
Analysis: Metz – Saint-Étienne
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
The text holds against the facts except for one unsupported claim: no betting odds (e.g., William Hill at 2.30) are given in the FACTS, so this must be removed.
Here is the corrected text:
Saint-Étienne have a strong edge heading into their clash against Metz, with a 46% chance of victory according to the model. Metz, despite holding a respectable 28% chance to win, face a daunting task against a visiting side riding a high with five consecutive wins. The hosts, though unbeaten in their last seven league games, might find their resolve tested by an in-form Green Wave.
The numbers suggest a tight game, with the most likely outcomes being a 1-1 draw at 12% and a 0-1 loss for Metz at 10%. The expected goals lean towards the visitors, with Saint-Étienne projected to score 1.61 to Metz's 1.10. While Metz boasts a historical 60% win rate at home over 20 games, this past form weighs less heavily given Saint-Étienne's current streak and superior expected goals.
Goal-scoring could see a modest uptick, with a slight 51% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams finding the net. But these figures are hardly decisive. Metz have shown resilience with their unbeaten run, though the strength of Saint-Étienne's attack may be too much for them to handle this time around.
Expect a well-fought battle, but don't be surprised if Saint-Étienne leave with a narrow 1-2 victory.
MetzForm WDDDW
Key players
- Pape Moussa FallFxG 0.90 · xT -0.04
- Jahyann PandoreCAMxG 0.02 · xT 0.22
- Idris MohamedCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.05
Saint-ÉtienneForm WWWWW
Key players
- Augustine BoakyeRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.13
- Kévin PedroRWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.07
- Irvin Charly Jose CardonaRWxG 0.30 · xT 0.27
Match prediction: Metz – Saint-Étienne
Predicted score matrix
Saint-Étienne →
Metz →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.0%
0–110.4%
0–28.7%
0–34.7%
0–4+2.7%
1
1–07.0%
1–112.1%
1–29.5%
1–35.1%
1–4+2.9%
2
2–04.0%
2–16.5%
2–25.2%
2–32.8%
2–4+1.6%
3
3–01.5%
3–12.4%
3–21.9%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–00.5%
4+–10.8%
4+–20.7%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.1-29%
- 4.0-29%
- 5.0-07%
Expected goals
1,10–1,61
Both teams to score
54%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,707%
117%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,549%
–
Over 2,551%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Saint-Étienne to win46%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Irvin Charly Jose Cardona to score30%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score54%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Irvin Charly Jose Cardona to score30%
- Jessy Deminguet to be booked25%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Key facts
- Metz are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
- Saint-Etienne come into this round on 5 straight wins.
- Metz win 60% of their home matches all-time (20 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Metz
Saint-Étienne
Metz (8–4)
Saint-Étienne (16–4)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Metz
Saint-Étienne
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Metz
Saint-Étienne
| The goalkeepers | Jonathan Fischer (Metz) | Gautier Larsonneur (Saint-Étienne) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 15 | 10 |
| Save % | 83% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 63% | 33% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Metz vs Saint-Étienne according to our model?
The model gives Saint-Étienne a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Metz 28%, draw 26%, Saint-Étienne 46%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.