Boulogne vs Nantes: Prediction & Odds (19 Sept 2026)

Ligue 219 September 2026Stade de la Libération, Boulogne-sur-Mer19°30 km/h

Läs på svenska

Boulogne

Nantes

The model's lean: 2 · Nantes (46%)

1 · Boulogne 24%X 30%46% Nantes · 2

24%

30%

46%

Analysis: Boulogne – Nantes

Erik Lindberg · 17 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

In their last three encounters, Boulogne and Nantes have produced a mixed bag of results, with each team securing a win and the remaining match ending in a draw. This suggests a fairly even contest historically, but with only three games to consider, the head-to-head record feels more anecdotal than definitive. The real story lies in their current form and statistical outlook.

Boulogne's campaign has been characterized by defensive solidity but a lack of firepower upfront, reflected in their expected goals tally of 1.10. Meanwhile, Nantes have managed a slightly better expected goals figure of 1.33, indicating a marginally more potent attack. The model sees the visitors as the likely victors, giving them a 46% probability of securing the three points, compared to Boulogne's 24%.

Adding to the intrigue, the most probable scorelines according to the model are 1-1 and 0-1. The slim difference in expected goals between the two sides supports the forecast of a tight battle. The over/under 2.5 goals market shows a lean towards the under, with only a 44% likelihood of surpassing that threshold. This aligns with the anticipated defensive tussle, backed further by the conservative both teams to score probability of 49%.

For those seeking value, Unibet offers Nantes to win at odds of 2.20. Given the numbers, these odds suggest a positive expected value, albeit in a close-run affair. The odds reflect the model's lean towards the visiting side, with Nantes having the slight edge in quality and form. This is where the shrewd bettor might find an opportunity to capitalize on a game that points towards a narrow victory for the visitors.

Boulogne

Form LDDDD

Key players

Abdel HbouchFxG 0.28 · xT 0.16
Benjamin BesicFxG 0.34 · xT 0.05
Joffrey BultelFxG 0.05 · xT 0.01

Nantes

Form LLDWL

Key players

Herba GuirassyLWxG 0.31 · xT 0.08
Killian CorredorFxG 0.37 · xT 0.24
Saidou SowCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.10

Match prediction: Boulogne – Nantes

Predicted score matrix

Nantes →

Boulogne →

0–09.2%

0–111.4%

0–27.8%

0–33.5%

0–4+1.5%

1–09.3%

1–113.3%

1–28.6%

1–33.8%

1–4+1.7%

2–05.3%

2–17.1%

2–24.7%

2–32.1%

2–4+0.9%

3–01.9%

3–12.6%

3–21.7%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–00.7%

4+–10.9%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-111%
3.1-09%
4.0-09%
5.1-29%

Expected goals

1,10–1,33

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

121%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,556%

@1.68

Over 2,544%

@2.23

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Nantes to win46%
Under 3.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Nantes to win46%
Under 2.5 goals56%
Bahmed Deuff to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals44%
Bahmed Deuff to score26%
Ibrahima Sissoko to be booked26%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Nantes46% probability@2.27PinnacleEV+4%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Boulogne	X	2 · Nantes
Betsafe	3.35	3.05	2.15
Betsson	3.35	3.05	2.15
Nordicbet	3.35	3.05	2.15
Pinnacle	3.58	3.11	EV+ 4% 2.27

Odds updated 19 Sept, 11:38

Odds movement

1+6 %

29 %24 %

3.39 → 3.58

X-6 %

32 %27 %

3.32 → 3.11

2+5 %

46 %41 %

2.16 → 2.27

Over 2,5+3 %

46 %41 %

2.16 → 2.23

Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 12/09/2026 → 19/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Boulogne

Nantes

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Boulogne (2–3)

Nantes (7–12)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Boulogne

Nantes

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Boulogne

Nantes

The goalkeepers	Blondy Rudolph Nna Noukeu (Boulogne)	Maxime Dupé (Nantes)
Saves	22	12
Save %	88%	52%
xG prevented	78%	47%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Boulogne

Fixtures, form & tips

Nantes

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Boulogne vs Nantes according to our model?

The model gives Nantes a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Boulogne 24%, draw 30%, Nantes 46%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.