01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Saint-Étienne to win46%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
Ligue 2Stade Saint-Symphorien, Metz17°12 km/h
Läs på svenska
Metzvs
Saint-ÉtienneThe model's lean: 2 · Saint-Étienne (46%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.15 (+6 %)
Metz vs Saint-Étienne · Ligue 2
1 · Metz 28%X 26%46% Saint-Étienne · 2
28%
26%
46%
Analysis: Metz – Saint-Étienne
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
TEXT (corrected):
Saint-Étienne's 46% probability of victory overshadows Metz's 28% in the upcoming clash, signaling a likely edge for the visitors. Despite Metz's solid 60% home win rate in their historical sample, the current form leans towards Saint-Étienne. The model suggests that a 1-1 draw is the most probable outcome at 12%, followed closely by a 0-1 Saint-Étienne win at 10%.
The expected goals further clarify the situation: 1.61 for Saint-Étienne against Metz's 1.10. This discrepancy underscores the visitors' stronger offensive potential. The over 2.5 goals probability sits at 51%, slightly favoring a more open scoring match, with both teams likely finding the net at 54%. However, given the tight expected goal margins and the model's predictions, a scoreline of 0-1 or 1-2 feels plausible.
For punters searching for value, the under 3.5 goals market offers a solid proposition. Available at odds of 1.41 across Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, this angle aligns with the model's 71% rating. While the edge is effectively neutral at 0%, it's the sharpest play in a matchup where the numbers suggest controlled scoring.
MetzForm DDDWL
Key players
- Jahyann PandoreFxG 0.02 · xT 0.18
- Pape Moussa FallFxG 0.75 · xT -0.03
- Idris MohamedCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.05
Saint-ÉtienneForm WWWWL
Key players
- Augustine BoakyeRWxG 0.12 · xT 0.13
- Zuriko DavitashviliLWxG 0.16 · xT 0.27
- Irvin Charly Jose CardonaRWxG 0.28 · xT 0.25
Match prediction: Metz – Saint-Étienne
Predicted score matrix
Saint-Étienne →
Metz →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.0%
0–110.4%
0–28.7%
0–34.7%
0–4+2.7%
1
1–07.0%
1–112.1%
1–29.5%
1–35.1%
1–4+2.9%
2
2–04.0%
2–16.5%
2–25.2%
2–32.8%
2–4+1.6%
3
3–01.5%
3–12.4%
3–21.9%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–00.5%
4+–10.8%
4+–20.7%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.1-29%
- 4.0-29%
- 5.0-07%
Expected goals
1,10–1,61
Both teams to score
54%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,707%
117%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,549%
@2.15EV+6%
Over 2,551%
@1.75
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Saint-Étienne to win46%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Jakob Breum Martinsen to score26%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score54%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Jakob Breum Martinsen to score26%
- Jessy Deminguet to be booked25%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.549% probability@2.15PinnacleEV+6%reference odds
- 1 · Metz28% probability@3.72PinnacleEV+4%reference odds
- 2 · Saint-Étienne46% probability@2.20Paddy PowerEV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Metz | X | 2 · Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 3.50 | 3.40 | 1.98 |
| Betsson | 3.50 | 3.40 | 1.98 |
| Nordicbet | 3.50 | 3.40 | 1.98 |
| Paddy Power | 2.80 | 3.25 | EV+ 1% 2.20 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 4% 3.72 | 3.71 | 1.97 |
Odds updated 19 Sept, 10:16
Odds movement
1+4 %
28 %23 %
3.58 → 3.72
X+4 %
29 %24 %
3.57 → 3.71
2-1 %
50 %45 %
1.99 → 1.97
Over 2,5-1 %
57 %52 %
1.75 → 1.74
Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 15/09/2026 → 19/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Metz win 60% of their home matches all-time (20 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Metz
Saint-Étienne
Metz (8–5)
Saint-Étienne (17–6)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Metz
Saint-Étienne
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Metz
Saint-Étienne
| The goalkeepers | Jonathan Fischer (Metz) | Gautier Larsonneur (Saint-Étienne) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 22 | 10 |
| Save % | 85% | 63% |
| xG prevented | 57% | 32% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Metz vs Saint-Étienne according to our model?
The model gives Saint-Étienne a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Metz 28%, draw 26%, Saint-Étienne 46%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.