01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Guingamp or draw (1X)63%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
Ligue 2Stade de Roudourou, Guingamp19°23 km/h
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Guingampvs
Red StarThe model's lean: 1 · Guingamp (38%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 2 · Red Star @ 2.89 (+1 %)
Guingamp vs Red Star · Ligue 2
1 · Guingamp 38%X 27%35% Red Star · 2
38%
27%
35%
Analysis: Guingamp – Red Star
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
A draw appears the most probable outcome at 12% with a 1-1 scoreline, aligning with the model's over 2.5 goals projection at 52% and both teams to score at 56%.
This sentence contains an error: 12% is the probability of the 1-1 scoreline, not the draw outcome probability (which is 27%). Moreover, the draw is not the most probable outcome — the model actually favors Guingamp to win at 38%, ahead of Red Star at 35% and the draw at 27%.
Corrected text:
Guingamp's tactical approach, typically reliant on wing play and high pressing, faces a stern test against a Red Star team proficient on the counter. The home side will look to dominate possession and create chances through their wide players, aiming to wear down the visitors. Meanwhile, Red Star's resilience, reflected in their recent head-to-head dominance, suggests they have the blueprint to disrupt Guingamp's rhythm and exploit spaces left in transition.
Despite Guingamp's home advantage, the model attributes a slight edge to their chances at 38%, with Red Star not far behind at 35%. This near parity reflects expected goals of 1.37 for the hosts and 1.38 for the visitors, underlining the likelihood of a tight contest. The small head-to-head sample, where Guingamp has yet to claim a victory, leans less in predictive weight compared to the current form and underlying metrics. Yet, it highlights psychological hurdles for the home side.
The model gives Guingamp a slight lean to win at 38%, with the draw at 27% and Red Star at 35%. The most likely single scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, followed by 0-1 and 1-0 at 8% each, aligning with the model's over 2.5 goals projection at 52% and both teams to score at 56%. These figures point to a balanced match where neither side is likely to run away with the game. Guingamp will need to capitalize on any early dominance, given Red Star's historical knack for capitalizing on counter-attacking opportunities.
For bettors seeking value, the away win offers an intriguing proposition. With Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all offering odds of 2.9 on Red Star, there is a 2% edge according to the model's 35% probability. This value bet could appeal to those looking to capitalize on the visitors' recent successes and tactical acumen in dealing with Guingamp's pressing style.
GuingampForm WLDDW
Key players
- Albin DemouchyCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.10
- Tanguy AhileRWxG 0.42 · xT 0.06
- Stanislas KieltFxG 0.41 · xT 0.02
Red StarForm DDLWW
Key players
- Kévin CabralFxG 0.27 · xT 0.03
- Damien DurandLWxG 0.46 · xT 0.26
- Samuel RenelCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.13
Match prediction: Guingamp – Red Star
Predicted score matrix
Red Star →
Guingamp →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.8%
0–18.5%
0–26.1%
0–32.8%
0–4+1.3%
1
1–08.4%
1–112.4%
1–28.3%
1–33.8%
1–4+1.8%
2
2–06.0%
2–18.3%
2–25.7%
2–32.6%
2–4+1.2%
3
3–02.8%
3–13.8%
3–22.6%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–01.3%
4+–11.8%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.0-18%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.1-28%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,37–1,38
Both teams to score
56%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,70
117%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,548%
@2.05
Over 2,552%
@1.85
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Guingamp or draw (1X)63%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Stanislas Maxime Tom Kielt to score22%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score56%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Kévin Cabral to score28%
- Samuel Renel to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Red Star35% probability@2.89PinnacleEV+1%reference odds
- 2 · Red Star35% probability@2.88Bet365EV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Guingamp | X | 2 · Red Star |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.10 | EV+ 1% 2.88 |
| Betsafe | 2.32 | 3.30 | 2.80 |
| Betsson | 2.32 | 3.30 | 2.80 |
| Nordicbet | 2.32 | 3.30 | 2.80 |
| Pinnacle | 2.42 | 3.54 | EV+ 1% 2.89 |
Odds updated 19 Sept, 11:38
Odds movement
1+4 %
42 %37 %
2.32 → 2.42
X+3 %
30 %25 %
3.45 → 3.54
2-2 %
36 %31 %
2.96 → 2.89
Over 2,5+3 %
56 %51 %
1.75 → 1.80
Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 15/09/2026 → 19/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesGuingamp 0Draw 0Red Star 4
Goals: 6–14 (⌀ 5)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Guingamp
Red Star
Guingamp (9–9)
Red Star (6–6)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Guingamp
Red Star
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Guingamp
Red Star
| The goalkeepers | Adrian Ortola (Guingamp) | Gaetan Poussin (Red Star) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 17 | 19 |
| Save % | 65% | 76% |
| xG prevented | 59% | 48% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Guingamp vs Red Star according to our model?
The model gives Guingamp a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Guingamp 38%, draw 27%, Red Star 35%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.