01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Saint-Étienne to win46%
- Under 3.5 goals74%
Ligue 2Stade Marcel-Tribut, Dunkerque18°19 km/h
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Dunkerquevs
Saint-ÉtienneThe model's lean: 2 · Saint-Étienne (46%)Best value by the model: 1 · Dunkerque @ 4.13 (+13 %)
Dunkerque – Saint-Étienne · Ligue 2
1 · Dunkerque 27%X 27%46% Saint-Étienne · 2
27%
27%
46%
Analysis: Dunkerque – Saint-Étienne
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
With a head-to-head record that reads one win apiece since 2023, Dunkerque and Saint-Étienne have yet to establish a clear dominance over each other. However, this small sample size is overshadowed by the current form of the visitors. Saint-Étienne arrives on a hot streak, having won their last five matches, a momentum that undoubtedly fuels their confidence going into this clash.
Tactically, Dunkerque will likely focus on a compact defensive strategy, aiming to disrupt Saint-Étienne's rhythm. The hosts are projected to score around 1.12 goals, suggesting they might find the net but not comfortably so. In contrast, the visitors, with an expected 1.47 goals, will look to leverage their recent form through high pressing and swift counterattacks, exploiting any gaps left in Dunkerque's setup.
Despite the forecast suggesting a close match, the model leans clearly towards a Saint-Étienne victory with a 46% probability. The most likely outcomes are a 1-1 draw or a narrow 0-1 win for the visitors. Odds are nearly split on whether it will be an open game, with a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% probability of both teams scoring. This hints at a potentially low-scoring affair, possibly stifled by cautious play from Dunkerque.
For bettors, the standout opportunity is the home win priced at odds of 4.0 across multiple bookmakers, including Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. This presents a 9% edge based on the model's 27% rating for a Dunkerque victory. While their form may not suggest an upset, the value is there for those willing to back the underdogs hoping for a surprise result.
DunkerqueForm WDLLD
Key players
- Thomas RobinetFxG 0.42 · xT 0.11
- Adrien LebeauLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.09
- Mohamet Airam Ramos WadeCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.03
Saint-ÉtienneForm WWWWW
Key players
- Augustine BoakyeRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.13
- Kévin PedroRWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.07
- Irvin Charly Jose CardonaRWxG 0.30 · xT 0.27
Match prediction: Dunkerque – Saint-Étienne
Predicted score matrix
Saint-Étienne →
Dunkerque →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.8%
0–110.6%
0–28.1%
0–34.0%
0–4+2.0%
1
1–08.0%
1–112.7%
1–29.1%
1–34.4%
1–4+2.3%
2
2–04.7%
2–16.9%
2–25.1%
2–32.5%
2–4+1.3%
3
3–01.8%
3–12.6%
3–21.9%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–00.6%
4+–10.9%
4+–20.7%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-111%
- 3.1-29%
- 4.0-28%
- 5.1-08%
Expected goals
1,12–1,47
Both teams to score
52%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
119%
226%
322%
414%
5+12%
Under 2,552%
@2.08EV+8%
Over 2,548%
@1.68
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Saint-Étienne to win46%
- Under 2.5 goals52%
- Irvin Charly Jose Cardona to score34%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score52%
- Over 2.5 goals48%
- Irvin Charly Jose Cardona to score34%
- Théna Massock to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Dunkerque27% probability@4.13PinnacleEV+13%reference odds
- 1 · Dunkerque27% probability@4.00BetsafeEV+9%reference odds
- 1 · Dunkerque27% probability@4.00BetssonEV+9%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Dunkerque | X | 2 · Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 9% 4.00 | 3.55 | 1.78 |
| Betsson | EV+ 9% 4.00 | 3.55 | 1.78 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 9% 4.00 | 3.55 | 1.78 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 13% 4.13 | EV+ 9% 4.09 | 1.66 |
Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:13
Odds movement
10 %
25 %20 %
4.11 → 4.13
X+7 %
26 %21 %
3.81 → 4.09
2-7 %
56 %51 %
1.79 → 1.66
Over 2,5-4 %
58 %53 %
1.74 → 1.66
Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 06/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesDunkerque 1Draw 0Saint-Étienne 1
Goals: 2–2 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.
Key facts
- Saint-Etienne come into this round on 5 straight wins.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Dunkerque
Saint-Étienne
Dunkerque (8–9)
Saint-Étienne (16–4)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Dunkerque
Saint-Étienne
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Dunkerque
Saint-Étienne
| The goalkeepers | Maxence André Prévot (Dunkerque) | Gautier Larsonneur (Saint-Étienne) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 6 | 10 |
| Save % | 50% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 51% | 33% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Dunkerque vs Saint-Étienne according to our model?
The model gives Saint-Étienne a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Dunkerque 27%, draw 27%, Saint-Étienne 46%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.