01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Guingamp or draw (1X)68%
- Under 3.5 goals79%
Ligue 2Stade de Roudourou, Guingamp17°11 km/h
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Guingampvs
AnnecyThe model's lean: 1 · Guingamp (40%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.91 (+11 %)
Guingamp – Annecy · Ligue 2
1 · Guingamp 40%X 29%31% Annecy · 2
40%
29%
31%
Analysis: Guingamp – Annecy
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
Nine straight matches with a goal. That's the streak Annecy brings into their clash with Guingamp, a run underscoring their knack for finding the net. Yet, this offensive consistency faces a test in Guingamp, where the expected goals metric tells a tale of near parity: 1.25 for the hosts against 1.10 for the visitors. With such slim margins, it's no wonder the model edges towards Guingamp, albeit slightly, marking them as 40% likely to take the win.
The head-to-head record since 2023 offers little separation. In just four encounters, Annecy has the upper hand with two wins to Guingamp's one, but the sample is too small to heavily influence predictions, unlike the more robust indicators of current form and expected goals. The historical data here suggests caution rather than a clear pattern of dominance.
What's crucial in this matchup is the anticipated lack of fireworks. With a mere 42% probability for over 2.5 goals, and both teams to score at just 48%, the numbers hint at a tight, possibly low-scoring affair. The most likely scorelines, 1-1, 1-0, and 0-1, further confirm this restrained outlook, with the model prioritizing a draw or a narrow victory for either side.
For those scanning for value, the under 2.5 goals market stands out. Offered at 1.78 odds by bookmakers like Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, and assessed at a 58% likelihood by the model, there’s a 4% edge to exploit. As the dust settles on the pitch, the sharpest angle may lie in expecting a cautious game, with neither team breaking away.
GuingampForm LWLDD
Key players
- Albin DemouchyCBxG 0.11 · xT 0.10
- Stanislas KieltFxG 0.46 · xT 0.02
- Dylan LouiserreCDMxG 0.25 · xT 0.07
AnnecyForm WWLDW
Key players
- Ahmed KashiCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.10
- Clément BillemazLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.11
- Axel DrouhinCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.05
Match prediction: Guingamp – Annecy
Predicted score matrix
Annecy →
Guingamp →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–09.9%
0–110.1%
0–25.8%
0–32.1%
0–4+0.7%
1
1–011.5%
1–113.5%
1–27.2%
1–32.7%
1–4+0.9%
2
2–07.4%
2–18.2%
2–24.5%
2–31.7%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–03.1%
3–13.4%
3–21.9%
3–30.7%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–01.3%
4+–11.4%
4+–20.8%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.0-110%
- 4.0-010%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,25–1,10
Both teams to score
48%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,4010%
122%
227%
321%
412%
5+9%
Under 2,558%
@1.91EV+6%
Over 2,542%
@1.94
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Guingamp or draw (1X)68%
- Under 2.5 goals58%
- Stanislas Maxime Tom Kielt to score21%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score48%
- Over 2.5 goals42%
- Kadan Christophe Young to score23%
- Dylan Louiserre to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.558% probability@1.91PinnacleEV+11%reference odds
- Under 2.558% probability@1.82BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
- Under 2.558% probability@1.82BetssonEV+6%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Guingamp | X | 2 · Annecy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.15 | 3.10 | EV+ 1% 3.30 |
| Betsson | 2.15 | 3.10 | EV+ 1% 3.30 |
| Nordicbet | 2.15 | 3.10 | EV+ 1% 3.30 |
| Pinnacle | 2.28 | 3.30 | EV+ 1% 3.31 |
Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:13
Odds movement
1+4 %
45 %40 %
2.20 → 2.28
X-1 %
31 %26 %
3.35 → 3.30
2+2 %
31 %26 %
3.25 → 3.31
Over 2,5+7 %
53 %48 %
1.82 → 1.94
Pinnacle · 14 recorded price levels · 05/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesGuingamp 1Draw 1Annecy 2
Goals: 6–7 (⌀ 3,2)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.
Key facts
- FC Annecy have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Guingamp
Annecy
Guingamp (7–8)
Annecy (7–5)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Guingamp
Annecy
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Guingamp
Annecy
| The goalkeepers | Adrian Ortola (Guingamp) | Florian Escales (Annecy) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 13 | 13 |
| Save % | 62% | 77% |
| xG prevented | 57% | 72% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Guingamp vs Annecy according to our model?
The model gives Guingamp a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Guingamp 40%, draw 29%, Annecy 31%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.