BundesligaBayArena, Leverkusen9°11 km/h

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    Bayer LeverkusenBayer LeverkusenPossession & high press
    vs
    StuttgartStuttgartPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 1 · Bayer Leverkusen (62%)

    Bayer Leverkusen vs Stuttgart · Bundesliga

    1 · Bayer Leverkusen 62%X 21%18% Stuttgart · 2

    Prediction summary

    BetBuilders AI model prediction for Bayer Leverkusen vs Stuttgart (Bundesliga, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Bayer Leverkusen win 62%, draw 21%, Stuttgart win 18%. Expected goals (xG): Bayer Leverkusen 2.46, Stuttgart 1.20. Most likely score: 2-1 (9%). Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 64%. Double chance: Bayer Leverkusen or draw 82%, Stuttgart or draw 38%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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    Analysis: Bayer Leverkusen – Stuttgart

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Bayer Leverkusen, buoyed by three consecutive wins, carry a formidable form into their clash with VfB Stuttgart. The hosts have demonstrated a remarkable consistency, finding the net in 18 consecutive league matches. This offensive prowess is backed by an impressive expected goals figure of 2.46 for the upcoming game, highlighting their potential to trouble Stuttgart's defense.

    Despite a small head-to-head sample favoring Stuttgart slightly, Leverkusen's recent trajectory and home performance suggest a different narrative. They have claimed victory in 59% of their home fixtures, a testament to their dominance on familiar turf. Additionally, the model leans heavily in their favor, assigning a 62% probability of a home win.

    Stuttgart, meanwhile, arrive with just six points and a less convincing xPoints tally of 6.4, reflective of their challenges this season. Their expected goals conceded per match stands at 2.0, which could spell trouble against Leverkusen's high-pressing, possession-based style. Stuttgart's own offensive game, with an xG of 1.8, indicates they might find opportunities, but their defensive vulnerabilities could be their undoing.

    In terms of betting angles, the numbers suggest a lean towards over 2.5 goals, given the 71% probability. The most probable scorelines are 2-1 or 2-0 in favor of Leverkusen, and with a 64% chance of both teams scoring, a 2-1 result seems plausible.

    The hosts' ability to maintain defensive control while consistently finding goals is clear, making them the solid choice in this encounter. Leverkusen's momentum and Stuttgart's defensive frailties point to a likely home victory — steady and unspectacular, but enough to keep paying the bills.

    Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen
    Form WDWWW
    League ranking xG #2xGA #4xT #2xP/match #2Points #4
    Key players
    • Patrik SchickFxG 0.82 · xT 0.04
    • Edmond TapsobaCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.07
    • Aleix GarciaCDMxG 0.06 · xT 0.17
    StuttgartStuttgart
    Form WLLWL
    League ranking xG #8xGA #13xT #7xP/match #15Points #13
    Key players
    • Angelo StillerCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.22
    • Chris FuhrichLWxG 0.13 · xT 0.23
    • Jeff ChabotCBxG 0.20 · xT 0.07

    Match prediction: Bayer Leverkusen – Stuttgart

    Predicted score matrix

    Stuttgart →
    Bayer Leverkusen →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–02.8%
    0–12.9%
    0–21.9%
    0–30.7%
    0–4+0.3%
    1
    1–06.1%
    1–17.8%
    1–24.6%
    1–31.8%
    1–4+0.7%
    2
    2–07.8%
    2–19.4%
    2–25.6%
    2–32.2%
    2–4+0.9%
    3
    3–06.4%
    3–17.7%
    3–24.6%
    3–31.8%
    3–4+0.7%
    4+
    4+–07.0%
    4+–18.4%
    4+–25.0%
    4+–32.0%
    4+–4+0.8%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-19%
    2. 2.1-18%
    3. 3.2-08%
    4. 4.3-18%
    5. 5.3-06%
    Expected goals
    2,46–1,20
    Both teams to score
    64%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,7
    Under 2,529%
    @3.42EV+0%
    Over 2,571%
    @1.32

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Bayer Leverkusen to win62%
    • Over 1.5 goals88%

    Combined probability

    58%

    Fair odds

    1.72

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Bayer Leverkusen to win62%
    • Over 2.5 goals71%
    • Robert Andrich to score27%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score64%
    • Over 2.5 goals71%
    • Robert Andrich to score27%
    • Angelo Stiller to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Bayer Leverkusen62% probability@1.80LeoVegasEV+11%reference odds
    • 1 · Bayer Leverkusen62% probability@1.78PinnacleEV+10%reference odds
    • 1 · Bayer Leverkusen62% probability@1.78BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Bayer LeverkusenX2 · Stuttgart
    Betsafe
    EV+ 10%
    1.78    		4.203.80
    LeoVegas
    EV+ 11%
    1.80    		4.333.70
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 10%
    1.78    		4.203.80
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 10%
    1.78    		4.333.77

    Odds updated 23 Oct, 08:37

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Bayer Leverkusen 1Draw 1Stuttgart 2
    Goals: 6–10 (⌀ 4)

    Head-to-head based on Bundesliga data since 2022.

    Key facts

    • Bayer Leverkusen come into this round on 3 straight wins.
    • Bayer Leverkusen have scored in 18 consecutive league matches.
    • Bayer Leverkusen win 59% of their home matches all-time (37 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Bayer Leverkusen
    Stuttgart
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Bayer Leverkusen (16–9)
    Stuttgart (8–10)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Bayer Leverkusen
    Aleix Garcia: 402 passningar, xT 0.79GarciaFacundo Axel Medina: 317 passningar, xT 0.43MedinaEdmond Tapsoba: 285 passningar, xT 0.32TapsobaMiguel Gutiérrez Ortega: 220 passningar, xT 1.36OrtegaJarell Quansah: 214 passningar, xT 0.21QuansahEqui Fernandez: 171 passningar, xT 0.46FernandezIbrahim Maza: 146 passningar, xT 1.49MazaMark Flekken: 143 passningar, xT 0.12FlekkenAfonso Bastardo Moreira: 95 passningar, xT 0.43MoreiraMoussa Diaby: 91 passningar, xT 0.73DiabyRobert Andrich: 64 passningar, xT 0.02Andrich
    Stuttgart
    Angelo Stiller: 302 passningar, xT 1.01StillerJeff Chabot: 246 passningar, xT 0.41ChabotJosha Vagnoman: 241 passningar, xT 0.79VagnomanFinn Jeltsch: 241 passningar, xT 0.23JeltschMaximilian Mittelstädt: 208 passningar, xT 0.96MittelstädtRamon Hendriks: 157 passningar, xT 0.52HendriksChris Fuhrich: 141 passningar, xT 0.69FuhrichGrischa Prömel: 131 passningar, xT 0.06PrömelBilal El Khannouss: 118 passningar, xT 1.24KhannoussFabian Bredlow: 94 passningar, xT 0.05BredlowAtakan Karazor: 84 passningar, xT 0.08Karazor
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Bayer Leverkusen
    Aleix Garcia: 402 passningar, xT 0.79GarciaFacundo Axel Medina: 317 passningar, xT 0.43MedinaEdmond Tapsoba: 285 passningar, xT 0.32TapsobaMiguel Gutiérrez Ortega: 220 passningar, xT 1.36OrtegaJarell Quansah: 214 passningar, xT 0.21QuansahEqui Fernandez: 171 passningar, xT 0.46FernandezIbrahim Maza: 146 passningar, xT 1.49MazaMark Flekken: 143 passningar, xT 0.12FlekkenAfonso Bastardo Moreira: 95 passningar, xT 0.43MoreiraMoussa Diaby: 91 passningar, xT 0.73DiabyRobert Andrich: 64 passningar, xT 0.02Andrich
    Stuttgart
    Angelo Stiller: 302 passningar, xT 1.01StillerJeff Chabot: 246 passningar, xT 0.41ChabotJosha Vagnoman: 241 passningar, xT 0.79VagnomanFinn Jeltsch: 241 passningar, xT 0.23JeltschMaximilian Mittelstädt: 208 passningar, xT 0.96MittelstädtRamon Hendriks: 157 passningar, xT 0.52HendriksChris Fuhrich: 141 passningar, xT 0.69FuhrichGrischa Prömel: 131 passningar, xT 0.06PrömelBilal El Khannouss: 118 passningar, xT 1.24KhannoussFabian Bredlow: 94 passningar, xT 0.05BredlowAtakan Karazor: 84 passningar, xT 0.08Karazor

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceBayer LeverkusenStuttgart
    Points136
    xPoints10.86.4
    xG per match2.41.8
    xGA per match1.32
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.340.13
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.270.4
    Playing styleBayer LeverkusenStuttgart
    Build-up efficiency0.320.31
    Field tilt0.60.54
    xT per match1.91.4
    xTA per match1.11.3
    Won balls, offensive half2024
    Pressing intensity0.220.25
    Pressing efficiency0.290.29
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.220.26
    Entries into the box per match1916
    Entries into the box against1216
    Pass completion %0.810.78
    Pass completion % under pressure0.760.73
    Passes per match476438
    Passes against per match332347
    Switches of play per match30.727.9
    Long balls per match3433
    Set piecesBayer LeverkusenStuttgart
    xG from free kicks0.020.09
    Corners per match7.36.8
    Corners against per match3.36.1
    xG per corner0.030.05
    xGA per corner against0.060.06
    First touch, offensive corners %0.590.55
    First touch, defensive corners %0.50.61
    OtherBayer LeverkusenStuttgart
    Throw-in control0.760.8
    The goalkeepersMark Flekken (Bayer Leverkusen)Fabian Bredlow (Stuttgart)
    Saves1115
    Save %55%65%
    xG prevented32%44%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Bayer Leverkusen
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Stuttgart
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Bayer Leverkusen vs Stuttgart according to our model?

    The model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 62% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bayer Leverkusen 62%, draw 21%, Stuttgart 18%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 9% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 71% and under at 29%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 64% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in Bayer Leverkusen vs Stuttgart?

    The model expects 2.46 goals (xG) for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.20 for Stuttgart, 3.65 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    Bayer Leverkusen or draw (1X) 82%, Stuttgart or draw (X2) 38% and no draw (12) 79%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.