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    Schalke 04Schalke 04Possession control
    vs
    RB LeipzigRB LeipzigBalanced & physical
    The model's lean: 2 · RB Leipzig (55%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 6.13 (+36 %)

    Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig · Bundesliga

    1 · Schalke 04 21%X 24%55% RB Leipzig · 2

    Prediction summary

    BetBuilders AI model prediction for Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig (Bundesliga, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Schalke 04 win 21%, draw 24%, RB Leipzig win 55%. Expected goals (xG): Schalke 04 1.05, RB Leipzig 1.78. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 54%. Double chance: Schalke 04 or draw 45%, RB Leipzig or draw 79%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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    Analysis: Schalke 04 – RB Leipzig

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    TEXT: RB Leipzig's physicality and balanced approach face off against Schalke 04’s possession-based style, setting up a clash of footballing philosophies. Leipzig's current form and underlying statistics suggest they hold a clear edge. With 55% model probability for the visitors to claim victory, and a mere 21% chance for Schalke to upset, Leipzig's dominance in xG per match at 2.4 to Schalke's 0.99 underscores this forecast. Schalke's inability to keep opponents at bay, conceding an average of 1.9 xGA, only amplifies the challenge ahead.

    The model's predicted scorelines emphasize a tightly contested affair, though slightly favoring Leipzig. A probable 1-1 or 1-2 result suggests Schalke might put up a fight, but the visitors' superior xG tally and points gained solidify their favorite status. Schalke's struggle to convert possession into tangible threats remains evident. The realistic expectation leans towards a Leipzig win, with 1-2 being a plausible outcome.

    Goal predictions show the potential for a closely matched encounter. With both teams to score pegged at 54%, yet a modest 54% for over 2.5 goals, the data forecasts a contest that might not explode into a high-scoring spectacle. Leipzig's ability to control games physically could dampen Schalke's possession-based advances, maintaining a manageable scoreline.

    The standout betting angle? Despite the likelihood of goals, value lies with the under scenarios. LeoVegas offers an under 2.5 goals option at 2.7—an enticing 25% edge. For those cautious yet value-seeking, the under 3.5 at 1.727 presents a solid 18% edge. Leipzig's capacity to assert control without allowing chaos supports the view that this match might keep the tally lower than anticipated.

    Schalke 04Schalke 04
    Form DWDLL
    League ranking xG #17xGA #11xT #15xP/match #13Points #15
    Key players
    • Nikola KaticCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.06
    • Soufian El-FaouziCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.12
    • Timo BeckerCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.08
    RB LeipzigRB Leipzig
    Form LWLWL
    League ranking xG #3xGA #10xT #4xP/match #7Points #7
    Key players
    • Antonio NusaLWxG 0.16 · xT 0.25
    • David RaumLWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.22
    • Ridle BakuRBxG 0.14 · xT 0.29

    Match prediction: Schalke 04 – RB Leipzig

    Predicted score matrix

    RB Leipzig →
    Schalke 04 →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.2%
    0–110.2%
    0–29.4%
    0–35.6%
    0–4+3.7%
    1
    1–05.8%
    1–111.3%
    1–29.8%
    1–35.8%
    1–4+3.9%
    2
    2–03.2%
    2–15.8%
    2–25.2%
    2–33.1%
    2–4+2.1%
    3
    3–01.1%
    3–12.0%
    3–21.8%
    3–31.1%
    3–4+0.7%
    4+
    4+–00.4%
    4+–10.7%
    4+–20.6%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.0-110%
    3. 3.1-210%
    4. 4.0-29%
    5. 5.0-06%
    Expected goals
    1,05–1,78
    Both teams to score
    54%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,546%
    @2.83EV+31%
    Over 2,554%
    @1.44

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • RB Leipzig to win55%
    • Over 1.5 goals78%

    Combined probability

    44%

    Fair odds

    2.27

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • RB Leipzig to win55%
    • Over 2.5 goals54%
    • Tidiam Diadie Stephan Gomis to score22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score54%
    • Over 2.5 goals54%
    • Tidiam Diadie Stephan Gomis to score22%
    • Nikola Katić to be booked19%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 1.522% probability@6.13BetsafeEV+36%reference odds
    • Under 1.522% probability@6.13NordicbetEV+36%reference odds
    • Under 2.546% probability@2.83BetsafeEV+31%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Schalke 04X2 · RB Leipzig
    Betsafe3.653.70
    EV+ 5%
    1.90
    LeoVegas3.553.85
    EV+ 6%
    1.92
    Nordicbet3.653.70
    EV+ 5%
    1.90

    Odds updated 23 Oct, 07:38

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Schalke 04
    RB Leipzig
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Schalke 04 (4–7)
    RB Leipzig (16–11)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Schalke 04
    Hasan Kuruçay: 156 passningar, xT 0.35KuruçaySoufian El-Faouzi: 127 passningar, xT 0.25El-FaouziNikola Katic: 112 passningar, xT 0.33KaticSatoshi Tanaka: 99 passningar, xT 0.15TanakaTimo Becker: 95 passningar, xT 0.35BeckerRobin Everardus Gosens: 93 passningar, xT 0.47GosensLoris Karius: 82 passningar, xT 0.23KariusMaximilian Wöber: 68 passningar, xT 0.27WöberAdil Aouchiche: 62 passningar, xT 0.38AouchicheKenan Karaman: 59 passningar, xT 0.24KaramanÉric Junior Dina Ebimbe: 49 passningar, xT 0.19Ebimbe
    RB Leipzig
    Willi Orban: 352 passningar, xT 0.46OrbanDavid Raum: 304 passningar, xT 0.68RaumMaxime Fernand Christian Estève: 198 passningar, xT 0.33EstèveCastello Lukeba: 190 passningar, xT 0.19LukebaRidle Baku: 188 passningar, xT 0.69BakuNeil Yoni El Aynaoui: 179 passningar, xT 0.27AynaouiMaarten Vandevoordt: 151 passningar, xT 0.04VandevoordtEzechiel Banzuzi: 128 passningar, xT 0.02BanzuziChristopher Alan Nkunku: 87 passningar, xT 0.14NkunkuNicolas Seiwald: 82 passningar, xT 0.19SeiwaldAntonio Nusa: 80 passningar, xT 0.89Nusa
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Schalke 04
    Hasan Kuruçay: 156 passningar, xT 0.35KuruçaySoufian El-Faouzi: 127 passningar, xT 0.25El-FaouziNikola Katic: 112 passningar, xT 0.33KaticSatoshi Tanaka: 99 passningar, xT 0.15TanakaTimo Becker: 95 passningar, xT 0.35BeckerRobin Everardus Gosens: 93 passningar, xT 0.47GosensLoris Karius: 82 passningar, xT 0.23KariusMaximilian Wöber: 68 passningar, xT 0.27WöberAdil Aouchiche: 62 passningar, xT 0.38AouchicheKenan Karaman: 59 passningar, xT 0.24KaramanÉric Junior Dina Ebimbe: 49 passningar, xT 0.19Ebimbe
    RB Leipzig
    Willi Orban: 352 passningar, xT 0.46OrbanDavid Raum: 304 passningar, xT 0.68RaumMaxime Fernand Christian Estève: 198 passningar, xT 0.33EstèveCastello Lukeba: 190 passningar, xT 0.19LukebaRidle Baku: 188 passningar, xT 0.69BakuNeil Yoni El Aynaoui: 179 passningar, xT 0.27AynaouiMaarten Vandevoordt: 151 passningar, xT 0.04VandevoordtEzechiel Banzuzi: 128 passningar, xT 0.02BanzuziChristopher Alan Nkunku: 87 passningar, xT 0.14NkunkuNicolas Seiwald: 82 passningar, xT 0.19SeiwaldAntonio Nusa: 80 passningar, xT 0.89Nusa

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceSchalke 04RB Leipzig
    Points59
    xPoints6.69.2
    xG per match0.992.4
    xGA per match1.91.8
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.290.29
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.460.39
    Playing styleSchalke 04RB Leipzig
    Build-up efficiency0.310.29
    Field tilt0.30.56
    xT per match0.911.5
    xTA per match1.41.2
    Won balls, offensive half2926
    Pressing intensity0.240.24
    Pressing efficiency0.290.26
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.220.21
    Entries into the box per match1115
    Entries into the box against1413
    Pass completion %0.660.81
    Pass completion % under pressure0.610.77
    Passes per match254452
    Passes against per match444397
    Switches of play per match11.527.6
    Long balls per match2428
    Set piecesSchalke 04RB Leipzig
    xG from free kicks0.040.16
    Corners per match35.5
    Corners against per match6.36.9
    xG per corner0.030.08
    xGA per corner against0.040.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.220.47
    First touch, defensive corners %0.530.55
    OtherSchalke 04RB Leipzig
    Throw-in control0.70.7
    The goalkeepersLoris Karius (Schalke 04)Maarten Vandevoordt (RB Leipzig)
    Saves3136
    Save %82%77%
    xG prevented57%62%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Schalke 04
    Fixtures, form & tips
    RB Leipzig
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig according to our model?

    The model gives RB Leipzig a 55% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Schalke 04 21%, draw 24%, RB Leipzig 55%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig?

    The model expects 1.05 goals (xG) for Schalke 04 and 1.78 for RB Leipzig, 2.83 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    Schalke 04 or draw (1X) 45%, RB Leipzig or draw (X2) 79% and no draw (12) 76%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.