01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Bayern München to win72%
- Over 1.5 goals90%
BundesligaAllianz Arena, München6°5 km/h
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Bayern MünchenPossession & high pressvs
Borussia DortmundPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Bayern München (72%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 4.63 (+18 %)
Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga
1 · Bayern München 72%X 17%11% Borussia Dortmund · 2
72%
17%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund (Bundesliga, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Bayern München win 72%, draw 17%, Borussia Dortmund win 11%. Expected goals (xG): Bayern München 2.81, Borussia Dortmund 1.08. Most likely score: 2-1 (9%). Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 62%. Double chance: Bayern München or draw 89%, Borussia Dortmund or draw 28%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.
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Analysis: Bayern München – Borussia Dortmund
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Two giants collide as Bayern München host Borussia Dortmund, with the recent head-to-head record slightly favoring the Bavarians. In a small sample of four encounters since 2022, Bayern have taken two wins and two draws. Though Dortmund haven't tasted victory against their rivals in this period, their current eight-match unbeaten streak in the league hints at resilience. Yet, Bayern's intimidating 21-match unbeaten run paints a daunting picture for the visitors.
The numbers suggest a clear edge for the home side. Bayern's expected goals per match dwarf Dortmund's—3.2 to 1.8—and they also boast superior defensive metrics with an expected goals against of 0.73 compared to Dortmund's 0.9. Both teams favor a possession-based, high-press style, which might lead to a chess match of sorts in midfield. Historically, Bayern have been a fortress at home, winning 84% of their matches in the league.
Despite Bayern's dominance in the model probabilities, there's an air of caution regarding a runaway scoreline. The expected goals suggest a likely 2-1 or 3-1 finish. Meanwhile, the over 2.5 goals probability stands at a whopping 75%, reinforcing the idea of a high-scoring clash. Yet, the model surprisingly finds value in the under 3.5 market, with LeoVegas offering odds at 2.375, presenting an 8% edge.
The sharpest angle here lies in the potential for a slightly cagey affair than the odds suggest. While Bayern remain the favorites, those looking for value should consider the under 3.5 goals market at LeoVegas. Given the high press and possession styles both teams employ, it might not be the goal-fest many expect.
Bayern MünchenForm DWWDW
League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #1
Key players
- Michael OliseRWxG 0.57 · xT 0.43
- Min-jae KimCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.10
- Konrad LaimerRBxG 0.13 · xT 0.09
Borussia DortmundForm WWWDD
League ranking xG #7xGA #3xT #10xP/match #4Points #2
Key players
- Julian RyersonRWxG 0.00 · xT 0.49
- Waldemar AntonCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.08
- Nico SchlotterbeckCBxG 0.14 · xT 0.29
Match prediction: Bayern München – Borussia Dortmund
Predicted score matrix
Borussia Dortmund →
Bayern München →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–02.2%
0–12.0%
0–21.2%
0–30.4%
0–4+0.1%
1
1–05.6%
1–16.4%
1–23.4%
1–31.2%
1–4+0.4%
2
2–08.1%
2–18.7%
2–24.7%
2–31.7%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–07.5%
3–18.2%
3–24.4%
3–31.6%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–010.5%
4+–111.4%
4+–26.2%
4+–32.2%
4+–4+0.8%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-19%
- 2.3-18%
- 3.2-08%
- 4.3-08%
- 5.1-16%
Expected goals
2,81–1,08
Both teams to score
62%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,90
18%
216%
320%
420%
5+35%
Under 2,525%
@4.63EV+18%
Over 2,575%
@1.20
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Bayern München to win72%
- Over 2.5 goals75%
- Harry Kane to score30%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score62%
- Over 2.5 goals75%
- Harry Kane to score30%
- Waldemar Riptsov Anton to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.525% probability@4.63BetsafeEV+18%reference odds
- Under 2.525% probability@4.63NordicbetEV+18%reference odds
- Under 3.545% probability@2.54BetsafeEV+16%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Bayern München | X | 2 · Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.31 | EV+ 1% 5.85 | 7.50 |
| LeoVegas | 1.35 | EV+ 4% 6.00 | 6.75 |
| Nordicbet | 1.31 | EV+ 1% 5.85 | 7.50 |
Odds updated 23 Oct, 16:38
Odds movement
10 %
72 %67 %
1.35 → 1.35
X0 %
18 %13 %
6.00 → 6.00
20 %
17 %12 %
6.75 → 6.75
LeoVegas · 9 recorded price levels · 23/10/2026 → 23/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesBayern München 2Draw 2Borussia Dortmund 0
Goals: 8–6 (⌀ 3,5)
Head-to-head based on Bundesliga data since 2022.
Key facts
- FC Bayern Munich are unbeaten in their last 21 league matches.
- Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten in their last 8 league matches.
- FC Bayern Munich win 84% of their home matches all-time (37 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Bayern München
Borussia Dortmund
Bayern München (22–5)
Borussia Dortmund (11–4)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Bayern München
Borussia Dortmund
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Bayern München
Borussia Dortmund
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Bayern München | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 14 | 14 |
| xPoints | 12.6 | 10.5 |
| xG per match | 3.2 | 1.8 |
| xGA per match | 0.73 | 0.9 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.38 | 0.52 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| Playing style | Bayern München | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.87 | 0.62 |
| xT per match | 2 | 1.3 |
| xTA per match | 0.5 | 0.82 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 32 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.32 | 0.3 |
| Entries into the box per match | 25 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 5 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.85 | 0.79 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.79 | 0.74 |
| Passes per match | 632 | 452 |
| Passes against per match | 241 | 347 |
| Switches of play per match | 33.7 | 26.6 |
| Long balls per match | 37 | 30 |
| Set pieces | Bayern München | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| Corners per match | 9.6 | 4.8 |
| Corners against per match | 2.7 | 4.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.47 | 0.17 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.75 | 0.71 |
| Other | Bayern München | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.81 | 0.73 |
| The goalkeepers | Manuel Neuer (Bayern München) | Gregor Kobel (Borussia Dortmund) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 9 | 14 |
| Save % | 75% | 78% |
| xG prevented | 43% | 81% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Elversberg – Mainz30 October 2026
- Borussia Mönchengladbach – Paderborn31 October 2026
- Eintracht Frankfurt – Hamburger SV31 October 2026
- Augsburg – Freiburg31 October 2026
- Werder Bremen – Hoffenheim31 October 2026
- Bayer Leverkusen – Stuttgart31 October 2026
- Schalke 04 – RB Leipzig31 October 2026
- Union Berlin – FC Köln31 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund according to our model?
The model gives Bayern München a 72% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bayern München 72%, draw 17%, Borussia Dortmund 11%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 9% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 75% and under at 25%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund?
The model expects 2.81 goals (xG) for Bayern München and 1.08 for Borussia Dortmund, 3.89 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Bayern München or draw (1X) 89%, Borussia Dortmund or draw (X2) 28% and no draw (12) 83%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.