BundesligaStadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin8°7 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    Union BerlinUnion BerlinLow block & direct
    vs
    FC KölnFC KölnCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 1 · Union Berlin (38%)Soft drawBest value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.60 (+4 %)

    Union Berlin vs FC Köln · Bundesliga

    1 · Union Berlin 38%X 29%33% FC Köln · 2

    Prediction summary

    BetBuilders AI model prediction for Union Berlin vs FC Köln (Bundesliga, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Union Berlin win 38%, draw 29%, FC Köln win 33%. Expected goals (xG): Union Berlin 1.60, FC Köln 1.48. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 62%. Double chance: Union Berlin or draw 67%, FC Köln or draw 62%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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    Analysis: Union Berlin – FC Köln

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    Union Berlin's 38% win probability tells a story of a slight home edge, but it's the expected goals that spotlight the visitors. FC Köln's xG of 1.7 per match surpasses the hosts' 1.3, hinting at a potent attack that could thrive against Union's vulnerable defense. With Union's xGA at 2.0, the defensive frailties are evident, giving Köln an opportunity to capitalize, especially with their counter-attack and crossing game.

    The small head-to-head sample since 2022 shows Union with a win and a draw, but the visitors’ form and underlying metrics suggest they might tilt the scales this time. While both are capable of scoring, Köln's superior xPoints (9.7) compared to Union's (7.4) and their edge in actual points (7 vs. 5) reinforce the notion that they're performing above expectations and could exploit Union's defensive gaps.

    The betting value lies with FC Köln at 3.2 with Bet365, capitalizing on their xG supremacy and Union's defensive lapses. The model leans slightly towards Union, but the 1-2 scoreline at 8% isn't far-fetched, aligning with the over 2.5 goals lean at 59%. The numbers suggest a lively encounter where Köln might just have the upper hand.

    Union BerlinUnion Berlin
    Form LLLWD
    League ranking xG #14xGA #12xT #13xP/match #12Points #17
    Key players
    • Leopold QuerfeldCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.15
    • Tom RotheLWBxG 0.13 · xT 0.20
    • Josip JuranovicRWBxG 0.08 · xT 0.08
    FC KölnFC Köln
    Form LDLWL
    League ranking xG #9xGA #8xT #14xP/match #6Points #12
    Key players
    • Tom KraußCMxG 0.10 · xT 0.03
    • Thijs DallingaFxG 1.20 · xT 0.01
    • Borna SosaLBxG 0.01 · xT 0.14

    Match prediction: Union Berlin – FC Köln

    Predicted score matrix

    FC Köln →
    Union Berlin →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.9%
    0–16.5%
    0–25.0%
    0–32.5%
    0–4+1.3%
    1
    1–07.0%
    1–111.2%
    1–28.1%
    1–34.0%
    1–4+2.0%
    2
    2–05.9%
    2–18.7%
    2–26.4%
    2–33.2%
    2–4+1.6%
    3
    3–03.1%
    3–14.6%
    3–23.4%
    3–31.7%
    3–4+0.9%
    4+
    4+–01.8%
    4+–12.7%
    4+–22.0%
    4+–31.0%
    4+–4+0.5%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-28%
    4. 4.1-07%
    5. 5.0-16%
    Expected goals
    1,60–1,48
    Both teams to score
    62%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,1
    Under 2,541%
    @2.26
    Over 2,559%
    @1.65

    Ready-made bet suggestions

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    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Union Berlin or draw (1X)65%
    • Over 1.5 goals82%

    Combined probability

    53%

    Fair odds

    1.89

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Union Berlin or draw (1X)65%
    • Over 2.5 goals59%
    • Emmanuel Delan Junior Latte Lath to score22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score62%
    • Over 2.5 goals59%
    • Emmanuel Delan Junior Latte Lath to score22%
    • Ellyes Joris Skhiri to be booked25%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • X · Draw29% probability@3.60BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
    • X · Draw29% probability@3.60LeoVegasEV+4%reference odds
    • X · Draw29% probability@3.60NordicbetEV+4%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Union BerlinX2 · FC Köln
    Betsafe2.45
    EV+ 4%
    3.60    		2.58
    LeoVegas2.50
    EV+ 4%
    3.60    		2.60
    Nordicbet2.45
    EV+ 4%
    3.60    		2.58
    Pinnacle2.48
    EV+ 4%
    3.58    		2.69

    Odds updated 23 Oct, 16:38

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Union Berlin 1Draw 1FC Köln 0
    Goals: 3–2 (⌀ 2,5)

    Head-to-head based on Bundesliga data since 2022.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Union Berlin
    FC Köln
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Union Berlin (5–17)
    FC Köln (8–11)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Union Berlin
    Ohis Felix Uduokhai: 194 passningar, xT 0.33UduokhaiFrederik Ronnow: 156 passningar, xT 0.06RonnowTom Rothe: 150 passningar, xT 1.02RotheAndrás Schäfer: 112 passningar, xT 0.08SchäferLeopold Querfeld: 93 passningar, xT 0.34QuerfeldZeno Van den Bosch: 91 passningar, xT 0.12BoschMichel Aebischer: 83 passningar, xT 0.2AebischerJanik Haberer: 81 passningar, xT 0.07HabererWooyeong Jeong: 78 passningar, xT 0.56JeongRani Khedira: 76 passningar, xT 0.25KhediraJosip Juranovic: 67 passningar, xT 0.13Juranovic
    FC Köln
    Luka Lochoshvili: 279 passningar, xT 0.01LochoshviliJahmai Simpson-Pusey: 257 passningar, xT 0.12Simpson-PuseyEllyes Joris Skhiri: 162 passningar, xT 0.47SkhiriMarvin Schwäbe: 146 passningar, xT 0.35SchwäbeTom Krauß: 146 passningar, xT 0.08KraußGideon Mensah: 141 passningar, xT 0.48MensahBorna Sosa: 113 passningar, xT 0.3SosaIsak Johannesson: 98 passningar, xT 0.24JohannessonLinton Maina: 90 passningar, xT 0.22MainaAlessio Castro Montes: 86 passningar, xT 0.19MontesMikey Steven Danny Moore: 75 passningar, xT 0.3Moore
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Union Berlin
    Ohis Felix Uduokhai: 194 passningar, xT 0.33UduokhaiFrederik Ronnow: 156 passningar, xT 0.06RonnowTom Rothe: 150 passningar, xT 1.02RotheAndrás Schäfer: 112 passningar, xT 0.08SchäferLeopold Querfeld: 93 passningar, xT 0.34QuerfeldZeno Van den Bosch: 91 passningar, xT 0.12BoschMichel Aebischer: 83 passningar, xT 0.2AebischerJanik Haberer: 81 passningar, xT 0.07HabererWooyeong Jeong: 78 passningar, xT 0.56JeongRani Khedira: 76 passningar, xT 0.25KhediraJosip Juranovic: 67 passningar, xT 0.13Juranovic
    FC Köln
    Luka Lochoshvili: 279 passningar, xT 0.01LochoshviliJahmai Simpson-Pusey: 257 passningar, xT 0.12Simpson-PuseyEllyes Joris Skhiri: 162 passningar, xT 0.47SkhiriMarvin Schwäbe: 146 passningar, xT 0.35SchwäbeTom Krauß: 146 passningar, xT 0.08KraußGideon Mensah: 141 passningar, xT 0.48MensahBorna Sosa: 113 passningar, xT 0.3SosaIsak Johannesson: 98 passningar, xT 0.24JohannessonLinton Maina: 90 passningar, xT 0.22MainaAlessio Castro Montes: 86 passningar, xT 0.19MontesMikey Steven Danny Moore: 75 passningar, xT 0.3Moore

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceUnion BerlinFC Köln
    Points57
    xPoints7.49.7
    xG per match1.31.7
    xGA per match21.6
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.130.38
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.330.19
    Playing styleUnion BerlinFC Köln
    Build-up efficiency0.330.35
    Field tilt0.340.42
    xT per match0.940.93
    xTA per match1.61.4
    Won balls, offensive half3023
    Pressing intensity0.260.25
    Pressing efficiency0.270.29
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.240.22
    Entries into the box per match1211
    Entries into the box against1717
    Pass completion %0.690.76
    Pass completion % under pressure0.640.73
    Passes per match279351
    Passes against per match406377
    Switches of play per match21.720.8
    Long balls per match3027
    Set piecesUnion BerlinFC Köln
    xG from free kicks0.060.04
    Corners per match46
    Corners against per match5.86.3
    xG per corner0.060.04
    xGA per corner against0.030.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.50.23
    First touch, defensive corners %0.540.58
    OtherUnion BerlinFC Köln
    Throw-in control0.730.74
    The goalkeepersFrederik Ronnow (Union Berlin)Marvin Schwäbe (FC Köln)
    Saves2227
    Save %61%71%
    xG prevented40%64%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Union Berlin
    Fixtures, form & tips
    FC Köln
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Union Berlin vs FC Köln according to our model?

    The model gives Union Berlin a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Union Berlin 38%, draw 29%, FC Köln 33%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in Union Berlin vs FC Köln?

    The model expects 1.60 goals (xG) for Union Berlin and 1.48 for FC Köln, 3.08 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    Union Berlin or draw (1X) 67%, FC Köln or draw (X2) 62% and no draw (12) 71%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.