01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Hoffenheim or draw (X2)61%
- Over 1.5 goals84%
BundesligaWeserstadion, Bremen7°7 km/h
Läs på svenska
Werder BremenBalanced & physicalvs
HoffenheimPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Hoffenheim (39%)Soft drawBest value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.91 (+5 %)
Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim · Bundesliga
1 · Werder Bremen 34%X 26%39% Hoffenheim · 2
34%
26%
39%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim (Bundesliga, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Werder Bremen win 34%, draw 26%, Hoffenheim win 39%. Expected goals (xG): Werder Bremen 1.67, Hoffenheim 1.63. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 65%. Double chance: Werder Bremen or draw 61%, Hoffenheim or draw 66%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.
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Analysis: Werder Bremen – Hoffenheim
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
Werder Bremen's unbeaten streak of five matches hints at a team that's difficult to break down. Yet, in the four head-to-head encounters since 2022, it's Hoffenheim who have dominated, winning three and losing just once. The visitors will look to their possession-based, high-press style to exploit any lapses in Bremen's defense.
The numbers paint a picture of balance. While Bremen holds a slight edge in actual points, Hoffenheim has a marginal advantage in expected goals and goals against — 1.6 xG per match to Bremen's 1.3 and 1.4 xGA compared to 1.5. These metrics suggest a tight game despite Bremen's recent form.
With expected goals for the match nearly equal, the model sees Hoffenheim as slight 39% favorites against Bremen's 34%, and a draw sits at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, given a 10% chance, while 2-1 and 1-2 both sit at 8%. The likelihood of both teams scoring is 65%, supporting the idea of a match where neither side keeps a clean sheet.
Despite the 64% chance of over 2.5 goals, the under 3.5 market offers a 3% edge at odds of 1.769 with LeoVegas. This assessment leans towards a match with goals but not an excessive number. The under 2.5 option carries slight value at odds of 2.8, though with just a 1% edge, it's less compelling.
For those preferring a stoic approach, the draw holds value at odds of 3.9 with LeoVegas, offering a 3% edge. Given the likelihood of a balanced match, this result aligns well with the expected tight contest.
Werder BremenForm WDWDD
League ranking xG #15xGA #7xT #12xP/match #8Points #8
Key players
- Marco FriedlCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.07
- Marco GrüllLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.17
- Niclas FüllkrugFxG 0.46 · xT 0.04
HoffenheimForm LWLLW
League ranking xG #10xGA #5xT #6xP/match #9Points #14
Key players
- Ozan KabakCBxG 0.11 · xT 0.12
- Bambasé ContéRWxG 0.32 · xT 0.17
- Leon AvdullahuCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.13
Match prediction: Werder Bremen – Hoffenheim
Predicted score matrix
Hoffenheim →
Werder Bremen →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.0%
0–15.7%
0–24.9%
0–32.7%
0–4+1.6%
1
1–05.9%
1–110.4%
1–28.2%
1–34.4%
1–4+2.6%
2
2–05.2%
2–18.4%
2–26.8%
2–33.7%
2–4+2.2%
3
3–02.9%
3–14.7%
3–23.8%
3–32.1%
3–4+1.2%
4+
4+–01.7%
4+–12.8%
4+–22.3%
4+–31.3%
4+–4+0.7%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-110%
- 2.2-18%
- 3.1-28%
- 4.2-27%
- 5.1-06%
Expected goals
1,67–1,63
Both teams to score
65%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,30
112%
220%
322%
418%
5+24%
Under 2,536%
@2.91EV+5%
Over 2,564%
@1.42
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Hoffenheim or draw (X2)61%
- Over 2.5 goals64%
- Tim Lemperle to score25%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score65%
- Over 2.5 goals64%
- Tim Lemperle to score25%
- Ozan Muhammed Kabak to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.536% probability@2.91BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
- Under 2.536% probability@2.91NordicbetEV+5%reference odds
- Under 3.558% probability@1.78BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Werder Bremen | X | 2 · Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.90 | 3.75 | 2.18 |
| LeoVegas | 2.88 | EV+ 3% 3.90 | 2.18 |
| Nordicbet | 2.90 | 3.75 | 2.18 |
Odds updated 23 Oct, 07:38
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesWerder Bremen 1Draw 0Hoffenheim 3
Goals: 5–9 (⌀ 3,5)
Head-to-head based on Bundesliga data since 2022.
Key facts
- Werder Bremen are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Werder Bremen
Hoffenheim
Werder Bremen (12–12)
Hoffenheim (11–14)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Werder Bremen
Hoffenheim
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Werder Bremen
Hoffenheim
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Werder Bremen | Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 9 | 6 |
| xPoints | 8.1 | 7.9 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| Playing style | Werder Bremen | Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.38 | 0.69 |
| xT per match | 1 | 1.4 |
| xTA per match | 1 | 0.96 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 35 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 21 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.79 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 405 | 408 |
| Passes against per match | 449 | 282 |
| Switches of play per match | 33.1 | 26.3 |
| Long balls per match | 36 | 31 |
| Set pieces | Werder Bremen | Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 3.6 | 6.6 |
| Corners against per match | 5.8 | 4.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.32 | 0.5 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.74 | 0.61 |
| Other | Werder Bremen | Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.75 | 0.69 |
| The goalkeepers | Karl Hein (Werder Bremen) | Oliver Baumann (Hoffenheim) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 20 | 14 |
| Save % | 63% | 52% |
| xG prevented | 45% | 44% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Elversberg – Mainz30 October 2026
- Borussia Mönchengladbach – Paderborn31 October 2026
- Bayern München – Borussia Dortmund31 October 2026
- Eintracht Frankfurt – Hamburger SV31 October 2026
- Augsburg – Freiburg31 October 2026
- Bayer Leverkusen – Stuttgart31 October 2026
- Schalke 04 – RB Leipzig31 October 2026
- Union Berlin – FC Köln31 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim according to our model?
The model gives Hoffenheim a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Werder Bremen 34%, draw 26%, Hoffenheim 39%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 65% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim?
The model expects 1.67 goals (xG) for Werder Bremen and 1.63 for Hoffenheim, 3.30 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Werder Bremen or draw (1X) 61%, Hoffenheim or draw (X2) 66% and no draw (12) 74%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.