Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Paderborn Prediction: Home win 40% (31 Oct 2026)

Bundesliga31 October 2026Borussia-Park, Mönchengladbach9°10 km/h

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Borussia MönchengladbachBalanced & physical

PaderbornCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Borussia Mönchengladbach (40%)Best value by the model: 2 · Paderborn @ 3.70 (+20 %)

1 · Borussia Mönchengladbach 40%X 27%33% Paderborn · 2

40%

27%

33%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Paderborn (Bundesliga, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Borussia Mönchengladbach win 40%, draw 27%, Paderborn win 33%. Expected goals (xG): Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.79, Paderborn 1.45. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 64%. Double chance: Borussia Mönchengladbach or draw 67%, Paderborn or draw 60%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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Analysis: Borussia Mönchengladbach – Paderborn

Oscar Nilsson · 23 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

A small sample of recent head-to-head encounters sheds little light on the upcoming clash between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Paderborn; instead, the current form and expected goals provide a clearer picture. The hosts, despite a superior xG per match of 1.4, have stumbled into a disappointing six-game losing streak. Meanwhile, Paderborn has picked up five points in the same period and marginally edges out Gladbach in both points and xPoints, underlining a slight advantage in form.

Gladbach, despite their balanced and physical style, have struggled defensively, conceding an alarming 2.5 goals on average per match. This vulnerability could be exploited by Paderborn’s counter-attacking and crossing prowess. The expected goals tell a cautious but nuanced story, forecasting a fairly close battle: 1.79 xG for the hosts against 1.45 for the visitors. The model leans towards a narrow Gladbach victory, yet the numbers suggest that Paderborn is no pushover.

With a 63% chance of seeing over 2.5 goals and a 64% likelihood of both teams finding the net, the data teases a lively encounter. While the model indicates a slight preference for Borussia Mönchengladbach, the most likely scorelines sit at 1-1 and 2-1, reflecting the competitive nature of this matchup. The draw, especially with a 10% chance of a 1-1 result, cannot be discounted given the circumstances.

Yet, the sharpest angle lies in the betting market. The value lies with Paderborn at odds of 3.55 with LeoVegas, where the model sees a 15% edge. The draw at 3.95 also presents some value, offering an 8% edge. For those inclined towards totals, the under 3.5 at odds of 1.7 carries a smaller, yet positive edge at 1%. As the numbers suggest, this isn’t just about potential upsets—it's about finding the edge the market might have missed.

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Form LLLLL

League ranking xG #13xGA #17xT #11xP/match #18Points #18

Key players

Axel Hugo BolinFxG 0.29 · xT 0.22
Philipp SanderCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.09
Florian NeuhausLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.17

Paderborn

Form LLWLD

League ranking xG #16xGA #9xT #17xP/match #14Points #16

Key players

Laurin CurdaRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.28
Tjark SchellerCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.03
Mattes HansenCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.13

Match prediction: Borussia Mönchengladbach – Paderborn

Predicted score matrix

Paderborn →

Borussia Mönchengladbach →

0–04.2%

0–15.4%

0–24.1%

0–32.0%

0–4+1.0%

1–06.7%

1–110.5%

1–27.4%

1–33.6%

1–4+1.8%

2–06.3%

2–19.1%

2–26.6%

2–33.2%

2–4+1.6%

3–03.8%

3–15.4%

3–23.9%

3–31.9%

3–4+1.0%

4+–02.5%

4+–13.7%

4+–22.7%

4+–31.3%

4+–4+0.6%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-19%
3.1-27%
4.1-07%
5.2-27%

Expected goals

1,79–1,45

Both teams to score

64%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+23%

Under 2,537%

@2.65

Over 2,563%

@1.49

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Borussia Mönchengladbach or draw (1X)69%
Over 1.5 goals84%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Borussia Mönchengladbach or draw (1X)69%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Axel Hugo Bolin to score18%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score64%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Rayan Philippe to score19%
Tjark Lasse Scheller to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Paderborn33% probability@3.70BetsafeEV+20%reference odds
2 · Paderborn33% probability@3.70NordicbetEV+20%reference odds
2 · Paderborn33% probability@3.55LeoVegasEV+15%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Borussia Mönchengladbach	X	2 · Paderborn
Betsafe	1.85	EV+ 7% 3.90	EV+ 20% 3.70
LeoVegas	1.91	EV+ 8% 3.95	EV+ 15% 3.55
Nordicbet	1.85	EV+ 7% 3.90	EV+ 20% 3.70

Odds updated 23 Oct, 14:37

Odds movement

10 %

52 %47 %

1.91 → 1.91

X0 %

26 %21 %

3.95 → 3.95

20 %

29 %24 %

3.55 → 3.55

Over 2,5+1 %

67 %62 %

1.42 → 1.44

LeoVegas · 3 recorded price levels · 23/10/2026 → 23/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Borussia Monchengladbach have lost 6 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Paderborn

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Borussia Mönchengladbach (8–20)

Paderborn (5–9)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Paderborn

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Paderborn

The teams in numbers

Performance	Borussia Mönchengladbach	Paderborn
Points	0	5
xPoints	5.5	6.5
xG per match	1.4	1
xGA per match	2.5	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.25	0.19
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.56	0.26

Playing style	Borussia Mönchengladbach	Paderborn
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.32
Field tilt	0.44	0.39
xT per match	1.1	0.89
xTA per match	1.4	1.6
Won balls, offensive half	23	29
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.21	0.22
Entries into the box per match	12	12
Entries into the box against	16	20
Pass completion %	0.75	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.66	0.7
Passes per match	331	367
Passes against per match	367	445
Switches of play per match	16.2	23.2
Long balls per match	28	31

Set pieces	Borussia Mönchengladbach	Paderborn
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.01
Corners per match	5.9	4.4
Corners against per match	5.5	6.3
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.1	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.22	0.23
First touch, defensive corners %	0.61	0.7

Other	Borussia Mönchengladbach	Paderborn
Throw-in control	0.75	0.86

The goalkeepers	Moritz Nicolas (Borussia Mönchengladbach)	Nahuel Nicolas Noll (Paderborn)
Saves	35	28
Save %	64%	76%
xG prevented	43%	62%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Fixtures, form & tips

Paderborn

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Paderborn according to our model?

The model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Borussia Mönchengladbach 40%, draw 27%, Paderborn 33%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 64% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Paderborn?

The model expects 1.79 goals (xG) for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.45 for Paderborn, 3.24 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Borussia Mönchengladbach or draw (1X) 67%, Paderborn or draw (X2) 60% and no draw (12) 73%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.