01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Hoffenheim to win51%
- Over 1.5 goals84%
BundesligaBorussia-Park, Mönchengladbach9°4,4 mm14 km/h
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Borussia MönchengladbachBalanced & physical1–2
HoffenheimPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Hoffenheim (51%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 3.15 (+17 %)
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hoffenheim · Bundesliga
1 · Borussia Mönchengladbach 25%X 24%51% Hoffenheim · 2
25%
24%
51%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hoffenheim (Bundesliga, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Borussia Mönchengladbach win 25%, draw 24%, Hoffenheim win 51%. Expected goals (xG): Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.35, Hoffenheim 1.90. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 63%. Double chance: Borussia Mönchengladbach or draw 49%, Hoffenheim or draw 75%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Borussia Mönchengladbach – Hoffenheim
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
The text states the head-to-head record is "evenly split," but the facts show Gladbach has 2W 1D 1L in the four meetings — a slight edge for Gladbach, not an even split. Here's the corrected text:
Hoffenheim's 51% chance of victory underscores a stark contrast between their current form and that of the hosts, who have dropped five consecutive matches. While the head-to-head record since 2022 actually favors Gladbach slightly (2W 1D 1L over four encounters), this small sample offers little comfort to a Gladbach side struggling in their recent outings. The visitors' possession-heavy, high-press approach is likely to find success against a leaky home defense, especially given the difference in expected goals against: 2.6 for Gladbach compared to Hoffenheim's more robust 1.5.
The expected goals model suggests a tight battle, with Hoffenheim edging Gladbach out at 1.90 to 1.35. However, the forecasted rain could dampen scoring opportunities, though the model already incorporates this factor. Despite a 63% chance for both the over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring, a closer look reveals potential value in the opposite direction. Betsafe and Nordicbet offer enticing odds of 3.07 on under 2.5 goals, with the model indicating a 37% likelihood—representing a notable 14% edge.
For those seeking greater risk, consider the under 1.5 goals at 6.75 with Betsafe, where the model suggests a 16% probability, offering a 10% edge. In a matchup where caution may prevail, these under bets present appealing value.
Borussia MönchengladbachForm LLLLL
League ranking xG #11xGA #18xT #10xP/match #18Points #18
Key players
- Mathieu NguefackCDMxG 0.08 · xT 0.02
- Florian NeuhausLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.22
- Philipp SanderCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.11
HoffenheimForm LLWLL
League ranking xG #9xGA #6xT #5xP/match #9Points #17
Key players
- Ozan KabakCBxG 0.12 · xT 0.12
- Bambasé ContéRWxG 0.29 · xT 0.14
- Adam HložekFxG 0.49 · xT 0.04
Final score
1 – 2
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 25% · Draw 24% · Hoffenheim 51%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - TSG HoffenheimBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,14fair 5,37-23 %
MissMatchresultat - Borussia MönchengladbachBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,78fair 10,64-46 %
MissMatch prediction: Borussia Mönchengladbach – Hoffenheim
Predicted score matrix
Hoffenheim →
Borussia Mönchengladbach →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.2%
0–17.1%
0–27.0%
0–34.4%
0–4+3.2%
1
1–05.0%
1–110.3%
1–29.4%
1–36.0%
1–4+4.4%
2
2–03.5%
2–16.7%
2–26.4%
2–34.0%
2–4+2.9%
3
3–01.6%
3–13.0%
3–22.9%
3–31.8%
3–4+1.3%
4+
4+–00.7%
4+–11.4%
4+–21.3%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.6%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-110%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.0-17%
- 4.0-27%
- 5.2-17%
Expected goals
1,35–1,90
Both teams to score
63%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,20
112%
221%
322%
418%
5+23%
Under 2,537%
@3.15EV+17%
Over 2,563%
@1.38
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Hoffenheim to win51%
- Over 2.5 goals63%
- Adam Hložek to score26%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score63%
- Over 2.5 goals63%
- Adam Hložek to score26%
- Leon Avdullahu to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.537% probability@3.15BetsafeEV+17%reference odds
- Under 2.537% probability@3.15NordicbetEV+17%reference odds
- Under 1.516% probability@7.02BetsafeEV+14%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Borussia Mönchengladbach | X | 2 · Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 3.00 | 3.80 | EV+ 7% 2.10 |
| LeoVegas | 3.00 | 4.00 | EV+ 10% 2.15 |
| Nordicbet | 3.00 | 3.80 | EV+ 7% 2.10 |
Odds updated 18 Oct, 13:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Borussia Mönchengladbach win since 9 October — the odds have shortened from 3.30 to 3.00 (−9%).
1-9 %
33 %28 %
3.30 → 3.00
X0 %
27 %22 %
4.00 → 4.00
2+9 %
48 %43 %
1.98 → 2.15
Over 2,50 %
70 %65 %
1.38 → 1.38
LeoVegas · 50 recorded price levels · 09/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesBorussia Mönchengladbach 2Draw 1Hoffenheim 1
Goals: 11–10 (⌀ 5,2)
Head-to-head based on Bundesliga data since 2022.
Key facts
- Borussia Monchengladbach have lost 5 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Hoffenheim
Borussia Mönchengladbach (7–18)
Hoffenheim (9–13)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Hoffenheim
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Hoffenheim
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 0 | 3 |
| xPoints | 4.6 | 6.1 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| xGA per match | 2.6 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.61 | 0.19 |
| Playing style | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.44 | 0.71 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| xTA per match | 1.5 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 33 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 23 |
| Entries into the box against | 17 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 332 | 421 |
| Passes against per match | 372 | 274 |
| Switches of play per match | 17.7 | 27 |
| Long balls per match | 28 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 6.5 | 6.7 |
| Corners against per match | 5.3 | 4.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.24 | 0.53 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.6 | 0.56 |
| Other | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.76 | 0.71 |
| The goalkeepers | Moritz Nicolas (Borussia Mönchengladbach) | Oliver Baumann (Hoffenheim) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 29 | 12 |
| Save % | 62% | 50% |
| xG prevented | 41% | 44% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Eintracht Frankfurt – FC Köln16 October 2026
- Union Berlin – Borussia Dortmund17 October 2026
- Schalke 04 – Mainz17 October 2026
- Bayern München – RB Leipzig17 October 2026
- Hamburger SV – Stuttgart17 October 2026
- Elversberg – Augsburg17 October 2026
- Werder Bremen – Paderborn17 October 2026
- Bayer Leverkusen – Freiburg18 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hoffenheim according to our model?
The model gives Hoffenheim a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Borussia Mönchengladbach 25%, draw 24%, Hoffenheim 51%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hoffenheim?
The model expects 1.35 goals (xG) for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.90 for Hoffenheim, 3.25 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Borussia Mönchengladbach or draw (1X) 49%, Hoffenheim or draw (X2) 75% and no draw (12) 76%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.