01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Werder Bremen or draw (1X)65%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
BundesligaWeserstadion, Bremen12°1,0 mm18 km/h
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Werder BremenBalanced & physical2–2
PaderbornPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Werder Bremen (40%)Best value by the model: 2 · Paderborn @ 4.31 (+37 %)
Werder Bremen vs Paderborn · Bundesliga
1 · Werder Bremen 40%X 28%32% Paderborn · 2
40%
28%
32%
Prediction summary
Final score 2–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Werder Bremen vs Paderborn (Bundesliga, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Werder Bremen win 40%, draw 28%, Paderborn win 32%. Expected goals (xG): Werder Bremen 1.47, Paderborn 1.39. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: Werder Bremen or draw 68%, Paderborn or draw 60%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Werder Bremen – Paderborn
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
Werder Bremen's physicality might just be the deciding factor against Paderborn's possession-heavy approach. Bremen have shown a balanced game plan, managing to accumulate 8 points this season, significantly more than Paderborn's 4. Even with a modest xPoints advantage of 6.0 over Paderborn's 5.8, Bremen's edge is clear. Their defensive resilience, marked by a slightly better xGA of 1.6 compared to Paderborn's 1.7, suggests they can contain Paderborn's attempts to dominate the ball.
Despite their possession game, Paderborn struggles to convert it into points, evidenced by their meager tally. This clash presents an intriguing setup: can Paderborn's control disrupt Bremen enough to snatch a result? The model sees Werder Bremen as slight favorites, giving them a 40% chance of a win compared to Paderborn's 32%. Importantly, the likelihood of both teams finding the net is pegged at 58%, aligning with the expected goals figures that suggest a tight encounter.
The most likely scoreline, 1-1 at 12%, reflects the closely matched expected goals for each side—1.47 for Bremen and 1.39 for Paderborn. Yet, a 2-1 Bremen victory lurks just behind at 9%, hinting that the hosts might have the edge if they capitalize on key moments. As for the goal tally, with a 54% chance of clearing the 2.5 mark, we might see a game that just edges into more goal-rich territory, but not by much.
From a betting perspective, the value lies with the visitors. Both Betsafe and Nordicbet offer odds of 4.1 on a Paderborn win, while LeoVegas posts 3.95. Given the model rates Paderborn's chances at 32%, these odds present a significant edge—particularly at 30% with Betsafe and Nordicbet. This represents a tempting opportunity for bettors seeking value, even if Bremen seems the steadier ship on paper.
Werder BremenForm LWDWD
League ranking xG #17xGA #8xT #16xP/match #10Points #7
Key players
- Marco GrüllLWxG 0.16 · xT 0.09
- Niclas FüllkrugFxG 0.29 · xT 0.02
- Marco FriedlCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.07
PaderbornForm DLLWL
League ranking xG #16xGA #10xT #14xP/match #13Points #15
Key players
- Laurin CurdaRWxG 0.09 · xT 0.32
- Mattes HansenCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.14
- Tjark SchellerCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.00
Final score
2 – 2
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Werder Bremen 40% · Draw 28% · Paderborn 32%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - SC Paderborn 07Båda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,90fair 9,80+1 %
MissMatchresultat - Werder BremenBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,02fair 8,75-54 %
MissMatch prediction: Werder Bremen – Paderborn
Predicted score matrix
Paderborn →
Werder Bremen →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.1%
0–17.6%
0–25.5%
0–32.6%
0–4+1.2%
1
1–08.1%
1–112.1%
1–28.1%
1–33.8%
1–4+1.8%
2
2–06.2%
2–18.6%
2–26.0%
2–32.8%
2–4+1.3%
3
3–03.0%
3–14.2%
3–22.9%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–01.5%
4+–12.1%
4+–21.5%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-28%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.0-18%
Expected goals
1,47–1,39
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,546%
@2.65EV+21%
Over 2,554%
@1.50
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Werder Bremen or draw (1X)65%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Niclas Füllkrug to score31%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Niclas Füllkrug to score31%
- Tjark Lasse Scheller to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Paderborn32% probability@4.31PinnacleEV+37%reference odds
- 2 · Paderborn32% probability@4.25BetsafeEV+35%reference odds
- 2 · Paderborn32% probability@4.25NordicbetEV+35%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Werder Bremen | X | 2 · Paderborn |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.72 | EV+ 12% 4.00 | EV+ 35% 4.25 |
| LeoVegas | 1.73 | EV+ 18% 4.20 | EV+ 33% 4.20 |
| Nordicbet | 1.72 | EV+ 12% 4.00 | EV+ 35% 4.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.78 | EV+ 17% 4.16 | EV+ 37% 4.31 |
Odds updated 17 Oct, 13:38
Odds movement
1+1 %
56 %51 %
1.77 → 1.78
X-3 %
25 %20 %
4.28 → 4.16
2+4 %
26 %21 %
4.15 → 4.31
Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 15/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Werder Bremen
Paderborn
Werder Bremen (10–10)
Paderborn (3–7)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Werder Bremen
Paderborn
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Werder Bremen
Paderborn
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Werder Bremen | Paderborn |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 8 | 4 |
| xPoints | 6 | 5.8 |
| xG per match | 1 | 1 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.35 | 0.14 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| Playing style | Werder Bremen | Paderborn |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| xT per match | 0.85 | 0.93 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 20 |
| Pass completion % | 0.79 | 0.74 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 375 | 374 |
| Passes against per match | 472 | 422 |
| Switches of play per match | 29.7 | 22.9 |
| Long balls per match | 34 | 31 |
| Set pieces | Werder Bremen | Paderborn |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 3.4 | 4.7 |
| Corners against per match | 6.3 | 6.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.41 | 0.17 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.78 | 0.66 |
| Other | Werder Bremen | Paderborn |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.72 | 0.88 |
| The goalkeepers | Karl Hein (Werder Bremen) | Nahuel Nicolas Noll (Paderborn) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 18 | 19 |
| Save % | 64% | 73% |
| xG prevented | 45% | 69% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Eintracht Frankfurt – FC Köln16 October 2026
- Union Berlin – Borussia Dortmund17 October 2026
- Schalke 04 – Mainz17 October 2026
- Bayern München – RB Leipzig17 October 2026
- Hamburger SV – Stuttgart17 October 2026
- Elversberg – Augsburg17 October 2026
- Bayer Leverkusen – Freiburg18 October 2026
- Borussia Mönchengladbach – Hoffenheim18 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Werder Bremen vs Paderborn according to our model?
The model gives Werder Bremen a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Werder Bremen 40%, draw 28%, Paderborn 32%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Werder Bremen vs Paderborn?
The model expects 1.47 goals (xG) for Werder Bremen and 1.39 for Paderborn, 2.85 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Werder Bremen or draw (1X) 68%, Paderborn or draw (X2) 60% and no draw (12) 72%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.